Thread by @charles_gaba

I'm not a fan of COBRA but this is bullshit.

The House version only spent $7.8 billion on COBRA. The Senate version increased it to ~$9.2 billion.

Secondly, it's expected to cover 2.2 million people.

That's $4,181 per person covered.

https://twitter.com/axcomrade/status/1370424924007927810

This idiot is lumping together ~$9.2B in COBRA subsidies (covering ~2.2M for 6 mo) with $30B in expanded ACA subsidies (covering ~1.7M for *3* yrs), $6.3B (waiver of subsidy clawback from 2020), etc

Basiclally they have no clue what they're talking about.
acasignups.net/21/02/17/cbo-r…

Annnnnnnd...SCENE:

📣 UPDATE: This is from the actual CBO score of the House version (increased from 85% to 100% subsidized in the Senate version).

It turns out I was wrong...it wouldn't raise spending $7.8B to cover 2.2M people...it would be $7.8B to cover *3.0M* people:

cbo.gov/system/files/2…

That is, the net federal spending increase from the HOUSE version of the COBRA provision would only be $2,600 per person.

The Senate version upped the 85% subsidy to 100%. For 3.0M people that would raise net spending to ~$3,059 apiece, or 27% less than even *I* thought...BUT...

...as @greg_fann noted, raising subsidies to 100% would also substantially increase the number of people who'd take advantage of it.

The CBO score of the *Senate* version seems to suggest $37.2B in COBRA subsidies - $14.4B in spending = $22.8B total:
cbo.gov/publication/57…

Unfortunately, the CBO didn't include a memo with their score of the revised Senate version, so I don't know how many more people they think would take up COBRA, but assuming the avg. cost of COBRA is consistent, dividing $37.2B / $14.3B = around 2.6x more people, or 7.8 million.

That would bring the per-COBRA enrollee spending up a bit to $2,923 apiece.

BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE!

While the COBRA subsidies are *officially* "only for 6 months" (from April - Sept. 2021), a chunk of both the revenue and savings aren't accounted for until 2022 or 2023!

I don't know if this is due to COBRA enrollees being eligible to stay on COBRA for up to 18 months, or delayed spending/receipts or whatever (I'm not an accountant), but it means that the net amount being spent *in 2021* to cover 3.0M (House) or ~7.8M (Senate) is less yet!

In the House version, the deficit would only increase by $4.8 billion in 2021...to cover 3.0 million people for 6 mo.

In the Senate version, the deficit would only increase by $14.31 billion in 2021...to cover 7.8 miliion people for 6 mo.

That's either $1,600 or $1,834 apiece.

You can argue that it's not fair to only include the 2021 spending. Fine. That brings the per-person total up to $2,923...a far cry from $40,000 per person.

Christ, even if you IGNORE THE $14.4 BILLION IN SAVINGS and ONLY look at the subsidies, that's *still* only $4,765 apiece.

Bottom line, no matter how you slice it, it's NOWHERE NEAR $40,000 apiece.

Considering employer coverage premiums only average $7,200/yr for single coverage and $20,600 for family coverage, @axcomrade AND anyone like @marwilliamson who RT'd them should be ashamed. /END

The avg US household has 2.53 people. That’s around $8,150/yr per person for family coverage. Throw in the $7,200 single coverage and let’s call it $8,000/yr apiece.

These jackasses are claiming COBRA costs $80,000/yr per person ($40K for 6 mo) or TEN TIMES that much.

If you want to argue private insurance sucks, start by NOT destroying your credibility out of the gate.