To recap: at one level, EU can feel it's done a stand-up job with Brexit
- protected members' interests
- didn't have to compromise on red lines
- secured legally-binding commitments from UK
- UK keeps having to come back to those commitments
2/
In large part, this comes from dominant position that EU holds, as larger party in process
Yes, UK has significant capacities, but can't escape econ/pol/geopol weight of EU system
3/
As my previous thread discussed, EU doesn't think UK as an alternative here, so latter must cleave to former, whether it likes it or not
4/
Danger has always been that EU becomes snooty about this
And no-one likes snooty people
5/
Important to note that EU has always been aware of this. Barnier in particular took much care not to present matters as any kind of fait accompli, for precisely that reason
EU also aware that causes of Brexit where not 'Brits being Brits', but more structural, so care needed
6/
However, antagonistic approach of UK, esp. under Johnson, has made it hard to maintain more open style
Recent months have made matters worse still, with treaties in effect (albeit TCA still to be ratified) and vaccine arsy-ness in play
7/
So problem now is that, confronted with a tetchy UK, EU might sit back into formal DSM tools of WA and TCA, to display the power of its position (and binding-ness of treaties), rather than try any political dialogue
8/
Yes, dialogue needs two parties, but starting a dialogue needs only one to be trying, and that's getting ever weaker on EU side
9/
As such, if EU wants to find a stable and reliable relationship with UK (at any level of proximity), then it needs to find a way to open channels, establish a baseline of mutual trust/respect and generally draw out any incentive for UK to unsettle that
10/
Again, as with UK, that's not looking likely in near future
1) EU's very distracted with other issues 2) The Brexit crew in EU institutions has dispersed 3) and, still, UK looks like it'll have to stick with the programme, so why invest in this work now?
11/
In sum, just as UK doesn't seem to want to make nice, so too EU increasingly not seeing why it should do the same either
Might take a big crisis to open any reset, unless policy changes
/end
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Thinking again about the UK's European policy and why it doesn't work
tl;dr EU doesn't think UK has a credible alternative to making things work in long-run
1/
To recap, since Johnson's entry to No.10, UK has not only picked at the scabs of the Brexit process, but has actively sought out points of conflict and tension
IMB; non-implementation; unilateral delays; EU Ambo status; EU office in NI; etc; etc
2/
Today's announcement about EU starting dispute proceedings against UK is unsurprising, in the context, and much more likely to result in UK giving way than the EU
3/
How does yesterday's UK announcement to unilateral extend grace periods compare to previous challenges to WA/TCA?
1/
Well, like IMB and COM's mention of Art.16, this has not yet come into effect, so it's still more potential than actual
However
2/
COM was looking to use a power it actually held under Art.16 (albeit not following proper procedure and with poor political judgement about acceptability)
UK in both IMB and now is seeking to overturn legal obligations under the treaties
3/
A reminder: TCA itself only has provisional application lasting to end Feb, unless either full ratification completed, or mutual agreement to extend in Partnership Council
UK has completed its arm of ratification, while EU accepted EP needed more time to look at it all properly, before giving its formal approval
Basic problem with Gove's letter to Šefčovič is not the identification of issues, but the connection of these with failure of Protocol (thus necessitating possible use of Art.16)
So, now we've all slept on it, a possibly less hot take
AZ/Art.16 mess highlights importance of UK being closely across EU/COM activity, because it will affect UK and there's no one permanently in place to look after UK interests
1/
UK is now a third country and so will always come after member states in political calculations.
Fortunate to have IE looking after Protocol, and Barnier to still be around, to unpick the situation last night, but might not apply to other situations
2/
Thus UK needs to maintain working links with all parts of COM to head off issues and make sure there's someone to phone if it does go wrong
3/