In interests of balance, I'm now thinking about EU's UK policy and why it doesn't work
tl;dr dominant position compromises longer-term goal of bringing UK back into stable relationship
1/
tl;dr dominant position compromises longer-term goal of bringing UK back into stable relationship
1/
https://twitter.com/Usherwood/status/1371393915455176704
To recap: at one level, EU can feel it's done a stand-up job with Brexit
- protected members' interests
- didn't have to compromise on red lines
- secured legally-binding commitments from UK
- UK keeps having to come back to those commitments
2/
- protected members' interests
- didn't have to compromise on red lines
- secured legally-binding commitments from UK
- UK keeps having to come back to those commitments
2/
In large part, this comes from dominant position that EU holds, as larger party in process
Yes, UK has significant capacities, but can't escape econ/pol/geopol weight of EU system
3/
Yes, UK has significant capacities, but can't escape econ/pol/geopol weight of EU system
3/
As my previous thread discussed, EU doesn't think UK as an alternative here, so latter must cleave to former, whether it likes it or not
4/
4/
Danger has always been that EU becomes snooty about this
And no-one likes snooty people
5/
And no-one likes snooty people
5/
Important to note that EU has always been aware of this. Barnier in particular took much care not to present matters as any kind of fait accompli, for precisely that reason
EU also aware that causes of Brexit where not 'Brits being Brits', but more structural, so care needed
6/
EU also aware that causes of Brexit where not 'Brits being Brits', but more structural, so care needed
6/
However, antagonistic approach of UK, esp. under Johnson, has made it hard to maintain more open style
Recent months have made matters worse still, with treaties in effect (albeit TCA still to be ratified) and vaccine arsy-ness in play
7/
Recent months have made matters worse still, with treaties in effect (albeit TCA still to be ratified) and vaccine arsy-ness in play
7/
So problem now is that, confronted with a tetchy UK, EU might sit back into formal DSM tools of WA and TCA, to display the power of its position (and binding-ness of treaties), rather than try any political dialogue
8/
8/
Yes, dialogue needs two parties, but starting a dialogue needs only one to be trying, and that's getting ever weaker on EU side
9/
9/
As such, if EU wants to find a stable and reliable relationship with UK (at any level of proximity), then it needs to find a way to open channels, establish a baseline of mutual trust/respect and generally draw out any incentive for UK to unsettle that
10/
10/
Again, as with UK, that's not looking likely in near future
1) EU's very distracted with other issues
2) The Brexit crew in EU institutions has dispersed
3) and, still, UK looks like it'll have to stick with the programme, so why invest in this work now?
11/
1) EU's very distracted with other issues
2) The Brexit crew in EU institutions has dispersed
3) and, still, UK looks like it'll have to stick with the programme, so why invest in this work now?
11/
In sum, just as UK doesn't seem to want to make nice, so too EU increasingly not seeing why it should do the same either
Might take a big crisis to open any reset, unless policy changes
/end
Might take a big crisis to open any reset, unless policy changes
/end
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