Thread by @trevortombe

Today's COVID vaccination update:

- Total shots given: 3,151,305
- Shots reported today *: 124,640 (new record!)
- Doses given per 100 people: 8.3
- Doses available per 100 people: 10.5

Source: covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtra…

* Includes some weekend doses.

Canada is now up to 3.2 million shots given. This is out of a total of 4.0M doses available. Over the past week, 1,043,650 doses have been delivered to provinces!

And so far 601k are fully vaccinated with two shots.

Canada's pace of vaccination:

Today's 124,640 doses today compares to an average of 96,777/day over the past week and 75,381/day the week prior.

- Pace required for 2 doses to 75% of Canadians by Sept 30, 2021: 270,657
- At current pace, we reach 75% by Sep 2022

Turning to just the share of people with 1 or more doses (a weaker threshold), at Canada's current pace we reach 25% by May, 50% by September, and 75% by December 2021.

For other context, at Canada's current pace of vaccination the share of people with 1 or more doses increases by 0.25% per day. The U.S. increases this share by 0.48% per day. For Canada to reach the current U.S. share would take 60 days.

How does Canada compare to others? Currently, Canada ranks 28 out of 37 OECD countries in terms of the share of the population that is at least partially vaccinated.

Source: ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinat…

Exploring some other visuals. Doses per day is steadily growing (see above). So what if the growth *rate* in the number of daily doses administered keeps remains at its current rate? Then we hit the 75% fully vaccinated goal in about 3 months from now.

This is definitely too optimistic (and basically implies US level daily doses near the end). But holding the current doses per day constant as some other projections above do is also probably too pessimistic.

We'll definitely beat end-of-March 8% goal; hopefully also beat Sept!

Here's perhaps the best way to get a sense of the pace of vaccination recently, over the near-term, and relative to the September goal. Looks good between now and May if planned deliveries hold and provinces keep up!