Marc Gayle Profile picture
16 Mar, 17 tweets, 4 min read
1. Creative Risk Reduction Measures

The 3 Principles to Build Personal Wealth Are:

1. Make Money
2. Save Money
- Emergency Savings - to handle everyday, relatively minor non-budgeted expenses (replacing tech devices, buying meds, replace a car part, etc.).

#FinanceTwitterJa
2. Save Money continued
- Insurance - protect your savings and investments from major non-budgeted expenses (car accidents, hospital visits, natural disasters, etc.)

3. Invest Money
For a country it's similar. They make money from tax revenue. Savings have to be intentionally set aside (see the $90B GOJ used last year), and insurance needs to be acquired to handle shocks (e.g. weather or commodity shocks).
Mitigation Methods for Disasters (aka 'negative externalities')

- Self-Insure - i.e. set aside funds every yr specifically to offset the cost of a specific event (this is very hard to do, because of the large sums involved — i.e. this is the equivalent of 'saving'...
to replace your car in case of a write off).

- Buy Normal Insurance - pay a premium into a pool of funds and if you need it, you draw down on it. Last year GOJ got $500M JMD for damages related to hurricanes last year.

jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/Jam…
- Buy A New Type Of Insurance (Catastrophe Bond) - convince a pool of investors to assume the risk of a major catastrophe (i.e. if a major hurricane or natural disaster hits, they payout at the face value of the bond) in exchange for small payments periodically.
GOJ has done all 3.
- Self-Insure - They started bolstering the 'Contingencies Fund' with up to $4B over the prior 2 years (up from $100M for the 30 yrs prior). They used these funds in the early days of the pandemic for the CARE Programme while other resources were marshalled.
- Normal Insurance - They have been contributing to a Caribbean Catastrophe Insurance Fund (CCRIF) for disasters — which is what the $500M JMD payout came from for damage from Zeta & Eta.
- Catastrophe Bond (Cat Bond) - @drnigelclarkeja & his team have been working on a Cat Bond solution since 2020 and the first instance seems that it will be ready in time for the 2021 hurricane season. It is the design of this bond that I find creative and innovative.
A 3-year Cat Bond funded by international investors.

In the event that a hurricane causes damage above some threshold, Jamaica gets the principal amount of the bond.

JA pays a premium every year for 3 years to these investors for the potential payout; $1.1B in the upcoming FY.
All of JA's premia are funded by bilateral grants from the US, Canada, UK & Germany.

So, to recap, for the next 3 years any major hurricane that wreaks havoc on Jamaica and causes damage greater than the threshold stated in the CAT bond, GOJ gets a lump sum payment...
that's the principal of the bond. In years past, this risk was more or less fully borne by GOJ. When that happens, GOJ has to borrow to pay for those damages. In this instance, that principal amount is completely covered in advance and the premium payments that JA has to make...
for the first 3 years are completely covered. So GOJ removed major hurricane financial risk for the next 3 years at effectively almost no cost to the taxpayer. Any damages that happen below the threshold will presumably be funded by both the replenished Contingency Fund and any..
payouts from CCRIF. In 3 years, our debt-to-GDP ratio should be lower, so we should be able to manage those premiums on our own (or perhaps the MoF then will seek more grant funding for that then).
This entire hurricane risk mitigation strategy is truly good policy.

They used GOJ funds where available, they leveraged grants to tap international capital markets and structured a deal that is net positive to Jamaica.

Very creative. Just brilliant.

Good policy truly matters.
Note that this thread is part of a larger thread about the #BudgetSpeech2021

So if you read this out of context, it may not make complete sense.

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More from @marcgayle

16 Mar
I am going to pull the curtain back on the design of #Budget2021. There are some strategic decisions made throughout and the budget tells us a story about GOJ’s thinking.

It’s interesting digging into the story so we can understand the mindset.

//MEGA Thread

#FinanceTwitterJa
This is a very important budget for the following reasons:

- GOJ revenues are expected to fall by $70B or ~12% in FY 20/21
- GOJ expenses increased by ~$24B due to COVID
- PIOJ expects GDP to fall by 12% this FY ending March 31.
- GOJ had to do more, with less in the current FY.
- Due to prudent decisions by the MoF, GOJ had deliberately set aside $90B to pay down debt. That was ultimately used to cushion the revenue fall off and increased expenses due to the crisis.
- Despite these prudent decisions that helped with the heavy lifting re: spending...
Read 23 tweets
16 Mar
2. Growth via Infrastructure Investment

There is wide economic research that suggests that infrastructure investments are one of the most high-impact fiscal policy decisions that can boost economic growth. See one such paper below.

epi.org/publication/th…
The general idea is two fold:

- Humans are needed to build infrastructure (e.g. roads). As humans build these roads, they earn money and they spend it in the rest of the economy. They buy lunch every day, they save some of it, they buy groceries, etc.
As they spend throughout the economy, others benefit (all of the stores/restaurants etc that they spend in). So not only are direct jobs created on the infrastructure project, but jobs are created/sustained throughout the economy as spending increases.
Read 12 tweets
16 Mar
3. Growth via Technology Investment

Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)

- CBDC is NOT cryptocurrency (which is decentralized in nature). CBDC is backed and issued by BOJ.

- It will be legal tender, similar to the existing paper bills & coins we use, but all digital.
- BOJ will issue CBDC to deposit-taking institutions (DTIs..i.e. banks, etc.) and authorized payment service providers (i.e. Billpay, BillExpress, etc.) similar to how they currently do it with paper currency.

- The most prominent way of transacting will be via mobile devices.
- Customers can top-up their account through authorised agents or smart ABMs.

- Customers can do business using CBDC phone-to-phone with merchants.

- CBDC, if it achieves widespread adoption, will drive financial inclusion. Many unbanked, will now have access to...
Read 9 tweets
16 Mar
4. Employment Growth via MSME Growth

These initiative are close to my heart, because I run a SME and advise a number of entrepreneurs that do the same.

DBJ has a recently launched programme for qualifying MSMEs to get a $200,000 grant to be invested in a digital transition..
(which includes building out e-commerce functionality and digitizing internal processes and more), called the 'Go Digital' grant.

Under the SERVE Jamaica programme, GOJ is allocating $1B to the DBJ so that MSME's that qualify for the 'Go Digital' grant...
to also be eligible for up to $800,000 in 2% interest loans to be used to support the digital transition.

Under the SERVE Jamaica programme, $2B is allocated to seed two equity funds exclusively focused on providing equity financing to MSMEs.
Read 20 tweets
15 Jan
MSMEs & SMEs that sell consumer packaged goods directly to their customer via e-commerce should include a margin in their delivery fee.

I.e. do NOT charge your customer whatever the bearer charges you. Charge more.

You aren’t greedy, but prudent.

//Thread

#FinanceTwitterJa
I am going to make a few assumptions here:

- You want to build an independent, growing, profitable business.
- You don’t have deep pockets.
- You don’t want to physically deliver yourself.
- You are doing your own fulfillment.
- You want to provide great customer svc.
I am not speaking to delivery only companies like QuickPlate, etc.

I am also not speaking to large companies that can subsidize cheap/free delivery with high margins on their products or with deep pockets.

With those out of the way, let’s dive in.
Read 20 tweets
28 Dec 20
I am going to pull the curtain back a bit on some ‘inside baseball’ currently happening in our local financial markets around the Derrimon $DTL.ja APO.

This is ‘dot connecting’ on corporate maneuvering.

Read below, there is a lot going on.

//Mini-Thread

#FinanceTwitterJa
So let’s go back to the early days of 2013 when $DTL.ja initially went public.

The lead broker was Mayberry Investments at the time.

The listing was very successful and the offer closed within 3 minutes of opening.

jamaicaobserver.com/business/Overs…
Mayberry Jamaican Equities ( $MJE.ja) took a big position in $DTL.ja.

In fact, they are the second largest shareholder as of today.
Read 17 tweets

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