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Jason Bailey

@jbaileyky

15 Mar

Senate A&R now amending a bill to apparently again make the highly ineffective and expensive film tax credit refundable at a cost of $75 million a year, giving away a massive amount of money on an idea that was never given a public hearing or introduced as a bill. #sewage

In addition, Kentucky will be required to refund federal aid equal to the cost of all tax cuts and tax breaks like the film tax credit because of the new provisions of the American Rescue Plan. A double hit to our budget. #kyga21

kypolicy.org/last-minute-ta…

Read 15 tweets

Jason Bailey

@jbaileyky

13 Mar

https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1370742929774551040

The new budget would bar the governor from spending the $2.4 billion to the state as well as the $185 million for capital projects that support work, education and health (i.e. remote work, telehealth) without the General Assembly's authorization.

https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1370742929774551040

Similar language was not included in last year's budget which was enacted after the CARES Act passed. The governor used the Coronavirus Relief Fund from that act throughout the rest of the year to shore up the budget, address the public health crisis, and provide aid.

Here's what the $2.4 billion can be used for:

Read 8 tweets

Jason Bailey

@jbaileyky

30 Apr 20

NEW interim forecast says state revenues will collapse 18.2%-23.7% this quarter--creating a shortfall of $319- $496 million--and then 10.5%-17.2% the next two quarters of the new fisc year.

Kentucky needs Congress to step in with *much more* in fiscal relief. #statecovidrelief

Corporate taxes projected will fall especially--from 68%-79% this quarter. Sales taxes will fall 18%-20% and individual income taxes 5%-13%. The lottery will drop 32%, property tax 14%, coal severance 46% and other 28%. All massive declines.

Road Fund receipts will also crater, falling 36.8%-55.2% in April-June compared to the prior year. The gas tax will fall 33.6%-52.1% and the usage tax (based on car sales) will fall 52.5%-72.1%. That creates a Road Fund shortfall between $116 million and $195 million this year.

Read 7 tweets

Jason Bailey

@jbaileyky

14 Jul 19

As we approach a possible special session on pensions and quasi-governmental organizations, let's reflect on how we got here--and specifically the assumption changes the KRS board made in 2017. <thread>

Assumptions are long term & should apply to a ~30 year period. Given that, the pre-2017 assumptions were not way out of line. For KERS NH, the investment assumption was 6.75% (just lowered from 7.5%), nearly the lowest in US at the time & below what plan has earned historically.

The payroll growth assumption of 4% reflected what had happened historically. It’s true that we didn’t hit 4% in the years after the Great Recession—a recession that caused major budget cuts that reduced employment.

Read 11 tweets

Jason Bailey

@jbaileyky

13 Dec 18

False claims of a crisis & even insolvency for the pension plans because of today's Supreme Court ruling. Let's be clear: those saying so have no analysis to back them up. (1/6)

First of all, KY's retirements plans have $38 billion in assets in total (money that is invested). Those funds have built up through past contributions as well as investment returns. That's an amount equal to 18% of KY's entire economy. Not money that's about to run out. (2/6)

Second, employers & employees make contributions every year, and the $38 billion earns investment returns. We returned to responsible funding in '14 for KERS/SPRS & '17 for TRS. Plans will improve through steady funding, & no one is proposing we underfund again. (3/6)

Read 7 tweets

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