In September 2019, Johns Hopkins in partnership with WHO published a detailed report on "high-impact respiratory pathogens" that is prophetic. For example, they warned NPI policies could be abused by overreaching governments for political/social purposes, not because of evidence.
They say widespread quarantine is likely the least effective NPI to do anything, especially if the pathogen is a) airborne, b) highly transmissible. Sound familiar? They mention how the Ebola experience highlights how difficult quarantine policies can be to maintain.
They urge that every NPI that is considered must also consider any potential harms that could come from the intervention - seeing that it's well-documented that lockdowns essentially do nothing, we are left with assessing the harms of them, which will be seen for decades to come.
They also say there is very little information on the effectiveness of masks in the public setting - yet public health leaders in 2020 were so confident in mannequin head droplet studies that they push them as one of the most important and effective interventions we have.
There are several other reports just like this one. Don't let political leaders say they "followed the science" when they locked down. They panicked. They've spent the past year doubling down on these policies to cover up their failure. No science supported these policies.
Thanks to an FOIA request from a determined friend here in KC, we now know the number of #COVID19 cases the Kansas City Health Department could trace from restaurants and bars between November 1st and January 31st.
The answer is 11.
2/ In addition to the extraordinarily weak contact tracing data from KCHD, the timeline and mobility data does not align at all with their narrative that these businesses have a meaningful impact on community spread. ericjusteric.medium.com/in-support-of-…
3/ Despite this, they credit "contact tracing 20-29 year olds" as well as 10 PM stoppage of indoor dining/drinking for the decrease in cases in KC, although once again the data does not align with these claims at all.
Narrative: "COVID cases are going down because more people are staying home!"
Reality: According to the USC Dornsife "Understanding America" study, the percentage of people in the US staying home except for essential activities/exercise has remained around 40-45% since June
Narrative: "COVID cases are going down because less people are gathering at each others' homes!"
Reality: The percentage of people in the US that have had visitors at their residence has remained between roughly 40 and 50% since May
Narrative: "COVID cases are going down because more people are wearing masks!"
Reality: The percentage of people in the US that have worn masks has remained around 90-93% since July
Trisha is really going double down on this? Let’s see the mental gymnastics required to argue joggers and cyclists are a real problem with the spread of COVID
“Risk of transmitting outdoors is an order of magnitude less than indoors”
“When jogging or cycling contacts tend to be rare and fleeting”
“Exercising outdoors is one of the few freedoms people in England still have”
Off to a good start making her case so far
“The WHO is adamant that people should NOT wear masks when exercising...but there are strong arguments that challenge the WHO’s advice such as NHS hospitals are overwhelmed.” Huh?
Tired of seeing the same flawed #COVID19 Kansas mask study being shared as proof of "masks working", so I used similar methods + the same dataset and tracked what happened in mandate/non-mandate counties after their study's end date. Pretty different from what the CDC found.
The original observation in the study shared widely by the CDC was that daily cases in mask mandated counties fell while non-mask mandated counties rose. Of course, the conclusion falls apart when you re-run their experiment when SARS-CoV-2 was much more prevalent in Kansas.
Cases rose, peaked, and fell at the exact same time. Sure, the non-mask mandate counties were higher prior to the peak, but this graph does not account for counties' testing levels, and when case prevalence is so low (basically a baseline) there is a lot of room for noise.
Tom claims COVID spread is entirely because of noncompliance with COVID measures, but he’ll never explain how 9 Midwest states peaked within one week of each other despite having completely different COVID policies, or how South Dakota managed to be the first to peak among them
Tom just hand-waves California’s terrible COVID numbers with “places in CA haven’t masked and distanced”. Really? Where? When? How? Do you have studies? Anything? California has some of the highest mask compliance numbers in the country. Can you be more specific, @DrTomFrieden?
If Tom were actually scientifically-minded he’d show a real interest in how California continues to spike despite having very drastic measures, or how all these Midwest states follow the exact same trajectory. That can’t be explained by 40 million people all complying at once.