Tom claims COVID spread is entirely because of noncompliance with COVID measures, but he’ll never explain how 9 Midwest states peaked within one week of each other despite having completely different COVID policies, or how South Dakota managed to be the first to peak among them
Tom just hand-waves California’s terrible COVID numbers with “places in CA haven’t masked and distanced”. Really? Where? When? How? Do you have studies? Anything? California has some of the highest mask compliance numbers in the country. Can you be more specific, @DrTomFrieden?
If Tom were actually scientifically-minded he’d show a real interest in how California continues to spike despite having very drastic measures, or how all these Midwest states follow the exact same trajectory. That can’t be explained by 40 million people all complying at once.
Seriously, I don’t think @DrTomFrieden has the words “seasonality” or “regionality” in his vocabulary. To him, everything is because of opening too soon or noncompliance with public health measures. Does he truly believe this, or is he lying and thinks people are that stupid?
Or, the third, and probably most likely option - Tom is the President and CEO of an organization that specifically relies on the idea that these measures are highly effective, and will do everything in his power to try to prove people need his organization to help implement them
Making $400,000 a year on this type of grift would definitely make a guy want to ensure they have that job security
1/ I really want to highlight how this #COVID19 graph from @KCMOHealthDept is a masterclass in either incompetence, narrative-spinning, or both. This is a bit niche with it being KC but I think it applies to health depts across the US. This is lying with graphs at its finest.
2/ First, the graph itself. They have it broken out as cumulative counts per month, as of 12/15. December is half over, so you can't compare it to other months, yet they highlight how far cases have fallen in all groups since November with a tiny blink-and-you-miss-it disclaimer.
3/ They wouldn't be wrong in assuming cases will be down in December though. But their argument falls apart when they credit 10 PM bar closures for the decline. The curfew was announced 11/16. Cases peaked 11/10 - 20 DAYS before we would see any meaningful effect from the curfew.
3 weeks removed from when people started gathering for Thanksgiving, let's see how those #COVID19 "surge upon a surge" predictions by Fauci etc panned out for those of us in the Midwest. Colored lines indicate each state's peak. They all occurred within one week of each other.
2/ The "surge upon a surge" narrative has no basis in reality. COVID outbreaks are clearly regional, regardless of the restrictions put in place by a particular state. This is perfectly obvious when you break out the regions one at a time vs. nationally.
3/ 4 states with some of the most lax COVID restrictions of this group of 9 have the highest decreases from their peak - ND, IA, SD and NE. Some of these states introduced new restrictions, mandates etc. but none of them align with when they peaked. Many came after.
Still waiting on that contact tracing data for KC restaurants and bars. What % of outbreaks can you trace to them? Why haven't you shared this when you have 9 months of data?
A well-documented anecdote (3 infections) does not mean this is happening everywhere all the time.
"Necessary curbs", @QuintonLucasKC says, but provides no specifics, no data for Kansas City to show why this is necessary. These are the actions of someone desperate to look like he's doing something even if it's not empirically driven.
Also, cases are decreasing in KC as they are throughout the rest of the Midwest. @QuintonLucasKC announced his "Safer at Home KC" measures on 11/16. Cases peaked around 11/10. His policies are so effective they work retroactively!
Anatomy of a standard #COVID19 response: 1. Recommend cancellation of elective procedures, causing financial strain on hospitals which in turn results in layoffs 2. Vastly overestimate the efficacy of masks and mask mandates, creating overreliance on unproven prevention methods
3. "Cases" eventually go up anyway (highly contagious+PCR tests), public officials blame the public for not "following the rules" re: masks 4. Layoffs from step 1 result in reduced number of beds that can be staffed when virus inevitably peaks, straining hospital workers
5. Media provide anecdotal horror stories of hospitals filling up but does not accurately reflect the big picture of the number of hospital beds available in an area 6. Virus spread eventually slows, regardless of what NPIs were put in place and at what time
To illustrate why #COVID19 PCR testing is flawed, and why we need transparency on cycles from positive tests, here is a hypothetical: say someone took a $1 bill from me and claimed I was distributing cocaine. Most paper bills have over 0.1 micrograms. academic.oup.com/jat/article/20…
To help determine whether I was in possession of cocaine, my accuser has a machine that can multiply any trace amounts found on a dollar bill by two every cycle it ran. You could set it to any number of cycles - but let's say 40, to match the CDC guideline for #COVID19.
So, multiplying 0.1 micrograms by two 40 times is roughly 110,000 grams, or 110 kilograms, or 242 pounds. So the tiny, trace amounts of cocaine found on my $1 bill is now about the same weight as former NFL linebacker Luke Kuechly. I would be going to jail for a long time.