#Covid19Ontario update March 16. Cases have plateaued but still tracking the pattern of decline in the first wave.
#Covid19Ontario update March 16. Decline in fatalities tracking wave 1 also.
#Covid19Ontario update March 16. Active LTC cases have declined 97% from peak.
#Covid19Ontario update March 16. Recent data 'catch ups' have skewed case reports. This chart shows an adjusted 7 day average that smooths out the 2 catch up days, Mar 8 and 14.
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1/ City of #Toronto Covid-19 variants of concern. 7 day average of cases screened for spike mutation plus confirmed variants of concern as a portion of overall cases, by episode date. #COVID19Ontario
2/ The chart above is the best representation of the status of VOC that I can produce with public data. It comes from Toronto's Covid Status of Cases page. They have a chart showing screened and confirmed voc cases by episode date. I combine this with cases by episode date...
3/ from their public covid case dataset. It is important to use episode date because the cases announced as screened + for spike mutation, and confirmed as voc on a given day, are not necessarily (in fact rarely) cases from the same day. From watching these numbers closely...
1/ Covid-19 disproportionately affects the elderly, right?
A large majority of deaths are in LTC and other elderly, right?
So, you'd expect that 2020 would show a greater % of overall deaths in older age groups, right?
But that's not what we've seen... #COVID19Ontario
2/ The proportion of deaths in Ontario up to August is THE SAME as it usually is. Check out the chart. There was a larger difference between '16-'17 than '19-'20. Does that make any sense?
The next chart shows why... #COVID19Ontario
3/ Deaths in the elderly surged over normal levels during the peak of the first wave. And then, proceeded to drop below normal levels in the Summer. Could one say that those elderly who died, simply died several weeks earlier than they would have without Covid? #COVID19Ontario