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16 Mar, 11 tweets, 5 min read
Alright alright - Just did a first pass of this @ODNIgov assessment of the elections. It's nice to have the intelligence community back! a thread--
1- Openly observable, unsurprising, key note...Russia this time just tried to go straight to Americans they thought would promote disinformation in America. Why? despite investigations, no laws in place to stop politicians from taking foreign assistance
2- Iran was not a total surprise, but they were the most aggressive in many ways during election 2020. Couldn't tip the vote, but provoked some chaos. fpri.org/fie/foreign-in…
3- China didn't show, despite what Trump admin tried pushing from DNI Ratcliffe, China cannot shift American votes (cough, cough..July 2020) fpri.org/fie/election-2…
4- No significant hacking for kompromat or to switch votes, costs outweighed the benefits for Russia, China, Iran. fpri.org/fie/russia-hac…
5- I'd heard a rumor about Cuba doing weird election stuff, one of the more interesting bits here in @ODNIgov report.
6- most interesting parts report, Kilimnik, Derkach "hired a US firm to petition US officials" - really want to know what company this is.
7 - Ghana troll farm outed by CNN well known & connects to Nigeria...Mexico is interesting & spanish language influence was bigger miss in election 2020 disinfo detection
8 - Regarding RU malign influence, everyday is an opportunity for them to hurt US & West. Election was a campaign, alongside others, today vaccine propaganda & disinfo, see AstraZeneca's pain this week. wsj.com/articles/russi…
9 - Remember when Ratcliffe (DNI) rapidly announced Iran involved in fake Proud Boys text message, Iran was aggressive, Ratcliffe used selective bias, but he was right. Would have been nice had he not covered for Russia
10 - last note before @thereidout - enough about Twitter bots, here's 4 areas needing focus for protecting 2022 & 2024 fpri.org/fie/future-ele…

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More from @selectedwisdom

Clint Watts Profile picture
17 Mar
ok, new day, new thread, intelligence community is back, Day 2...Domestic Violent Extremism Threat in 2021. dhs.gov/sites/default/… Image
1- As Director Wray noted couple weeks ago, despite Jan 6, most likely to carry out attacks...stochastic haters, bottom left corner from this post clintwatts.substack.com/p/virtual-insa… ImageImage
2 - Here they note militia groups as most dangerous, while less frequent, potential for mass casualties is higher because magic terrorism combo - Access to targets, Access to weapons, training/experience in operations, motivated to strike. clintwatts.substack.com/p/virtual-insa… ImageImage
Read 6 tweets
Clint Watts Profile picture
8 Mar
Most all of these recommendations of 1-6 report seem reasonable & probable based upon past week's hearings "Review of Jan 6 Riot Urges More Police, Mobile Fencing" npr.org/2021/03/08/973…
Particularly appreciate that the focus on proactive intelligence for Capitol police is front and center. Training and integration at the operations level, integration within JTTF all good, hope that intelligence training also emphasized at the leadership levels
Having lived through last 2 decades since 9/11, I'm apprehensive about the new agencies and the enduring QRF manpower. Reminded of the Air Marshals, NCTC....are we sure we cannot tackle accomplish purpose with existing resources? Maybe not, I don't know...but hesitant
Read 4 tweets
Clint Watts Profile picture
4 Mar
"Virtual Insanity to Real World Calamity: How Will Lies Power Domestic Terrorism in 2021?" my first post at @SubstackInc an assessment of today's domestic extremism landscape clintwatts.substack.com/p/virtual-insa…
A few notes on the chart and the post...this is an imperfect assessment drawing on available research from different groups & observations of online environment.
For Figure 1, not much good data, particularly for online stochastic terrorists. Ideologies overlap & are hard to depict. All assessments are relative to other groups & represent plots, averages as I could best summarize based on observations and feedback.
Read 7 tweets
Clint Watts Profile picture
23 Feb
Just not buying this was a big intelligence failure if I and many other Americans could see it coming while sitting at our houses using a basic Internet connection. No doubt those in government could see it as well, issue isn't intelligence but selection bias. #CapitolRiots
Alright, coming back to this, even more frustrating hear of intelligence failure & finger pointing Jan. 6. Even the "failure of imagination" argument just sucks. Yesterday 4 officials were interrogated for being attacked by a mob incited by the President nytimes.com/2021/02/23/us/…
Why would it be a failure of imagination that an armed mob, dressed in body armor, carrying weapons, who openly posted and spoke of attacking the Capitol would do so? Because everyone gave the elected officials a pass.
Read 7 tweets
Clint Watts Profile picture
18 Feb
"Russia Tried Again, Iran Antagonized, and China Didn’t Show: Insights and Lessons Learned on Foreign Influence in Election 2020" New post on foreign interference in election 2020, what did we learn? @FPRI #FIE2020
fpri.org/fie/foreign-in…
1 - Some notes on this post, no surprise to anyone that lived in the U.S. this election cycle - domestic disinformation & interference outpaced foreign disinformation by many miles, it wasn't even close.
2- all of the election defense preparation made a difference against foreign influence, lots of shutdowns and cooperation between the public & private sector in #Election2020
Read 9 tweets
Clint Watts Profile picture
8 Feb
Last week, we outlined how Kremlin fringe news sites, banned by social media companies, make their way back onto American platforms using backlinks to duplicated websites. Here's a quick explainer on how this system works. #TrustButVerify @SecureDemocracy
Here's the full write up on the NewsFront mirror site method and how they still reach thousands on U.S. social media sites. securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/russias-affron…
In short, many I've spoken to over the last 5-6 years have claimed they don't see Russian propaganda and disinformation, and my response is often times, "how are you sure that is the case?" for example, does one immediately know where these mirror sites come from?
Read 4 tweets

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