ok, new day, new thread, intelligence community is back, Day 2...Domestic Violent Extremism Threat in 2021. dhs.gov/sites/default/…
1- As Director Wray noted couple weeks ago, despite Jan 6, most likely to carry out attacks...stochastic haters, bottom left corner from this post clintwatts.substack.com/p/virtual-insa…
2 - Here they note militia groups as most dangerous, while less frequent, potential for mass casualties is higher because magic terrorism combo - Access to targets, Access to weapons, training/experience in operations, motivated to strike. clintwatts.substack.com/p/virtual-insa…
3 - remarkable change in 10 years from international to domestic terrorism, what's changed...see here the variables, as written in 2019 after spate of domestic terrorism attacks fpri.org/article/2019/0…
4 - Today's U.S. violent extremists are so numerous we now label them like car models. We've gone from VE (violent extremists) to HVE (homegrown ISIS/AQ) to DVE (Domestic) to MVE (Militia) to RMVE (Racially motivated) why so many? no domestic terror designation capability
5- Broad paragraph about information spaces which connect and drive violent extremism in America. BLUF - Happening in many channels, law enforcement cannot see or track all of them to prevent every attack
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1- Openly observable, unsurprising, key note...Russia this time just tried to go straight to Americans they thought would promote disinformation in America. Why? despite investigations, no laws in place to stop politicians from taking foreign assistance
2- Iran was not a total surprise, but they were the most aggressive in many ways during election 2020. Couldn't tip the vote, but provoked some chaos. fpri.org/fie/foreign-in…
Most all of these recommendations of 1-6 report seem reasonable & probable based upon past week's hearings "Review of Jan 6 Riot Urges More Police, Mobile Fencing" npr.org/2021/03/08/973…
Particularly appreciate that the focus on proactive intelligence for Capitol police is front and center. Training and integration at the operations level, integration within JTTF all good, hope that intelligence training also emphasized at the leadership levels
Having lived through last 2 decades since 9/11, I'm apprehensive about the new agencies and the enduring QRF manpower. Reminded of the Air Marshals, NCTC....are we sure we cannot tackle accomplish purpose with existing resources? Maybe not, I don't know...but hesitant
"Virtual Insanity to Real World Calamity: How Will Lies Power Domestic Terrorism in 2021?" my first post at @SubstackInc an assessment of today's domestic extremism landscape clintwatts.substack.com/p/virtual-insa…
A few notes on the chart and the post...this is an imperfect assessment drawing on available research from different groups & observations of online environment.
For Figure 1, not much good data, particularly for online stochastic terrorists. Ideologies overlap & are hard to depict. All assessments are relative to other groups & represent plots, averages as I could best summarize based on observations and feedback.
Just not buying this was a big intelligence failure if I and many other Americans could see it coming while sitting at our houses using a basic Internet connection. No doubt those in government could see it as well, issue isn't intelligence but selection bias. #CapitolRiots
Alright, coming back to this, even more frustrating hear of intelligence failure & finger pointing Jan. 6. Even the "failure of imagination" argument just sucks. Yesterday 4 officials were interrogated for being attacked by a mob incited by the President nytimes.com/2021/02/23/us/…
Why would it be a failure of imagination that an armed mob, dressed in body armor, carrying weapons, who openly posted and spoke of attacking the Capitol would do so? Because everyone gave the elected officials a pass.
"Russia Tried Again, Iran Antagonized, and China Didn’t Show: Insights and Lessons Learned on Foreign Influence in Election 2020" New post on foreign interference in election 2020, what did we learn? @FPRI#FIE2020 fpri.org/fie/foreign-in…
1 - Some notes on this post, no surprise to anyone that lived in the U.S. this election cycle - domestic disinformation & interference outpaced foreign disinformation by many miles, it wasn't even close.
2- all of the election defense preparation made a difference against foreign influence, lots of shutdowns and cooperation between the public & private sector in #Election2020
Last week, we outlined how Kremlin fringe news sites, banned by social media companies, make their way back onto American platforms using backlinks to duplicated websites. Here's a quick explainer on how this system works. #TrustButVerify@SecureDemocracy
In short, many I've spoken to over the last 5-6 years have claimed they don't see Russian propaganda and disinformation, and my response is often times, "how are you sure that is the case?" for example, does one immediately know where these mirror sites come from?