YEAH, BUT >>> (Re: CHOWDHRY on TESLA)
Sure I agree with Chowdhry that VW's lagging Tesla, and I too don't see them catching up technologically in the near future.
But a champion's deadliest enemy is Hubris, so I'd like to put a few things straight.
1/
Sure I agree with Chowdhry that VW's lagging Tesla, and I too don't see them catching up technologically in the near future.
But a champion's deadliest enemy is Hubris, so I'd like to put a few things straight.
1/
https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1371850991344218125
2/
Chowdhry pushes VW to give solid data.
VW showed their scaling-up plans, that they're fully committed this time - and they do seem that way.
TBH that's MORE important than the stats.
Example - does it matter if Mach-E has excellent or bad stats when it's a dead end?
Chowdhry pushes VW to give solid data.
VW showed their scaling-up plans, that they're fully committed this time - and they do seem that way.
TBH that's MORE important than the stats.
Example - does it matter if Mach-E has excellent or bad stats when it's a dead end?
3/
Tesla does have a huge lead but it's wrong to assume it's a 10 year one.
True that no automaker matches 2012 Model S range - but that doesn't mean once they do it'll take them 9 years to get to current Tesla tech.
A. Inventing is harder than copying, and they know
Tesla does have a huge lead but it's wrong to assume it's a 10 year one.
True that no automaker matches 2012 Model S range - but that doesn't mean once they do it'll take them 9 years to get to current Tesla tech.
A. Inventing is harder than copying, and they know
4/
.. and they know what Tesla did and is about to do - so easier for them to make progress
B. The tech itself has changed. More EV suppliers than before, batteries are cheaper - the stride from parity with 2012 Tesla-tech to parity with 2021 Tesla-tech will NOT take 9 years
.. and they know what Tesla did and is about to do - so easier for them to make progress
B. The tech itself has changed. More EV suppliers than before, batteries are cheaper - the stride from parity with 2012 Tesla-tech to parity with 2021 Tesla-tech will NOT take 9 years
5/
Till recently VW board was hesitant - but Diess gave ultimatums and they decided to accept his demand and back him in an all-in stampede.
They CAN pour lots of money on scaling up, and once they do - Wright's law will work FASTER for them than it did for Tesla!
Till recently VW board was hesitant - but Diess gave ultimatums and they decided to accept his demand and back him in an all-in stampede.
They CAN pour lots of money on scaling up, and once they do - Wright's law will work FASTER for them than it did for Tesla!
6/
Neither Tesla itself (battery day etc) nor ArkInvest think Tesla will own 80% of the market
More like 20%, so there will be lots of room for other mfgrs!
Although Tesla will be better and cost less, entirely possible for VW's many brands to take 25-30% of the 80!
Neither Tesla itself (battery day etc) nor ArkInvest think Tesla will own 80% of the market
More like 20%, so there will be lots of room for other mfgrs!
Although Tesla will be better and cost less, entirely possible for VW's many brands to take 25-30% of the 80!
7/
GTG so will add a few other points later.
Till then Gotta remind you all that I am EXTREMELY bullish on Tesla, invested almost everything in it
I don't see VW passing Tesla tech, but it IS possible in sales, and I do think both VW and others (China) will be strong contenders
GTG so will add a few other points later.
Till then Gotta remind you all that I am EXTREMELY bullish on Tesla, invested almost everything in it
I don't see VW passing Tesla tech, but it IS possible in sales, and I do think both VW and others (China) will be strong contenders
8/
The bottom line (till I have time to add more)
$TSLA IMHO a once-in a lifetime investment
and VW has lots of execution ahead - plus lots of legacy liabilities (layoffs, retraining, debt, old factories)
But I really wouldn't dismiss them now that they're serious. Not at all!
The bottom line (till I have time to add more)
$TSLA IMHO a once-in a lifetime investment
and VW has lots of execution ahead - plus lots of legacy liabilities (layoffs, retraining, debt, old factories)
But I really wouldn't dismiss them now that they're serious. Not at all!
@threadreaderapp unroll VW-Tesla thread please
@xDreamCoding thanks for tagging me on this one!
@SawyerMerritt @jpr007 @billhuang688 @WholeMarsBlog @28delayslater @CathG84806675 @WarrenWhitlock @WR4NYGov @TeslaBest @EvaFoxU @Cosmicstrenght3 @ShyCybertruck @Herbert_Diess
@xDreamCoding thanks for tagging me on this one!
@SawyerMerritt @jpr007 @billhuang688 @WholeMarsBlog @28delayslater @CathG84806675 @WarrenWhitlock @WR4NYGov @TeslaBest @EvaFoxU @Cosmicstrenght3 @ShyCybertruck @Herbert_Diess
PS
A champion's deadliest rival is hubris -
Tesla well-aware of that and IS running ahead, not resting on laurels
I meant this about us investors- $TSLA gave us amazing run and IMHO will continue doing so, but it's too easy to fall into cozy echo-chamber hubris, which is bad
A champion's deadliest rival is hubris -
Tesla well-aware of that and IS running ahead, not resting on laurels
I meant this about us investors- $TSLA gave us amazing run and IMHO will continue doing so, but it's too easy to fall into cozy echo-chamber hubris, which is bad
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