Thread by @McFaul

"The Cold War analogy distorts, more than illuminates, dynamics in US-China relations today." THREAD 1/

Advocates for a new Cold War w/ China underplay the costs and mistakes of the actual Cold War—a tragic era that resulted in millions of deaths, including tens of thousands of Americans, support for autocracies in both the East & West, and billions of dollars spent inefficiently.

This new hegemonic paradigm also forgets (whether consciously or unconsciously) that containment was not a single, consistent US strategy but stretched to mean everything from détente with Kremlin communists to rolling back communism around the developing world. 3/

In addition, many challenges from China’s rise today have little in common with the Cold War and therefore require creative strategic thinking, not simply dusting off the Cold War playbook. 4/

At the same time, analytically, some dimensions of US-China relations today do resemble the Cold War. 5/

And prescriptively, some lessons from the Cold War—regarding peace through strength, the importance of allies, ideological promotion, crisis management, crisis prevention, and cooperation on transnational issues—are worth remembering and emulating. 6/

Many challenges require creative strategic thinking, not simply dusting off the Cold War playbook. 7/

Instead of continuing a tedious definitional debate, analysts and policymakers should compare and contrast the old Cold War with US-China relations today to reveal with specificity successes from the Cold War to be emulated for managing our growing rivalry with China ...8/

and mistakes to be avoided, as well as identifying dimensions in US-China relations requiring the articulation and implementation of completely different strategies from the last century. 9/

"This type of analysis is complicated. But oversimplification is the enemy of smart, effective US policymaking regarding this most consequential challenge of the 21st century. " 10/ END THREAD tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…