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Tom Moultrie Profile picture
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17 Mar, 4 tweets, 3 min read
New weekly @MRCza excess deaths report out. 148 500 excess natural deaths between 3 May 2020 and 13 March 2021, an increase of 1 700 in the last week.

Report available here --> samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Excess deaths nationally at 250/100k, with (after adjusting for age structure) highest in EC (405) and KZN (366). Lowest in Gauteng (171).
Some provinces (EC -- 11%, WC --11%, NW --14%) have p-scores (observed to expected deaths in the week, expressed as a %) approaching zero and in some cases at below the upper prediction bound.
On the testing side, most provinces continue to decline (data through 13 March 2021), but some small upticks in some provinces. Definitely something to watch!

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More from @tomtom_m

Tom Moultrie Profile picture
3 Feb
New @mrcZA excess deaths report released today. 132 000 excess natural deaths from 3/5/20 to 30/1/21, up 7 000 from last week, a substantial reduction from the the 15.7k in week 2 and 12.5k in week 3.
50k excess deaths since 27/12/20.
Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
Sharp reductions in excess deaths nationally, and in all provinces (e.g. ZA and WC)
p-scores (observed deaths::expected deaths) continue to decline in every province:
Read 4 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
22 Jan
Quite a few people have been sharing a copy of part of a South African death certificate #onhere, (including some medical practitioners) claiming that this shows that Covid deaths are being exaggerated, misidentified, and misreported. A thread on Cause of Death Certification. /1
2/ What was being shared? Let’s look at one of the images.

Other tweets have made the opposite claim: (e.g.: )
3/ The Notification of Death form in South Africa, DHA1663, is in two parts. A sample can be found on pp9-12 of this document: samrc.ac.za/sites/default/…
Read 27 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
13 Jan
New SAMRC Excess Deaths report is out, covering the period to 5 Jan 2021. 83 918 estimates excess natural deaths since 6 May 2020. Mortality in the last week of 2020 (starting 30 Dec) 193% higher than normal in WC; 220% higher in KZN; 131% nationally.
Ridgeplot showing provincial p-scores by province and week.
Report available for download at samrc.ac.za/reports/report…. Some online figures still being updated.
Read 6 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
8 Oct 20
For those advocating a "Targeted Protection" strategy ... Some observations. [A brief thread]
1) According to the 2016 South African Community Survey from @StatsSA: In 2016, 4.5m (8.1% of the total) South Africans were over the age of 60. [As the population is aging slowly, this proportion is almost certainly a little higher now, nearly 5 years later]
2) Of these elderly (aged 60+), nearly 2 in 5 (38.0%) live in households with a least one person in primary or secondary school. Adding in those in tertiary education (aged up to 24) increases the proportion to 38.8%.
Read 7 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
12 Aug 20
Latest excess mortality surveillance report out for South Africa: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
33 500 excess deaths since 6 May.
Also, supplementary report: samrc.ac.za/sites/default/…
In three provinces, excess mortality exceeded 100% (i.e. double the 'normal' number) for two weeks.
samrc.ac.za/sites/default/…
Western Cape mortality still 27% higher than 'normal', 13 weeks after excess deaths emerged.
Read 5 tweets
Tom Moultrie Profile picture
23 Apr 20
As promised: Why we DON’T need ANOTHER South African Covid dashboard that merely re-presents the data in the public domain. (A thread 1/26)
There is a sudden proliferation of public-facing dashboard websites that seek to present data on Covid in South Africa. What do these do; what data do they present; and what insights and value-add can they bring? (2/26)
In general, using a variety of web-apps (shiny etc), these dashboards provide ‘live’, ‘real-time’ ‘data’ on Covid, using dataviz techniques. (3/26)
Read 25 tweets

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