Thread by @CasMudde

Remarkable first results of #exitpoll of #TK2021 -- although there is +/= 2 seat margin! #Thread

1. Despite drop in polls since fall of government, #VVD still probably wins. #Rutte is untouchable.

2. Amazing result for #D66 ! Traditionally, D66 loses big after government participation, but now they not just win, they win BIG. This can only be seen as "Kaag Effect", as party centered whole campaign on party leader and need for female leadership.

3. Classic Left is decimated! Absolutely unbelievable that both GL and SP lose big and PvdA doesn't even gains. DISASTROUS!

blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/202…

4. Far right wins collectively 5 seats (though not margins!) -- PVV loses (unexpected), FvD wins (expected), and FvD-split JA21 also wins (kind of expected).

5. #CDA loses big. Leadership problems have dogged the party for years now and "Wopke" was a terrible choice and led a horrible campaign.

Turns out, Dutch prefer the real Rutte over the wannabe-Rutte.

6. Pensioner party #50+ pays the price for endless internal problems and scandals.

7. Pro-EU party #Volt also big winner. Even more remarkable given that D66 was biggest winner.

8. Also remarkable, turnout was roughly the same as in 2017, despite corona measures. 81% now, 82% then.

9. Can I just get back to fucking disastrous result of the Dutch left?! Jesus Christ! And all self-inflicted.

- PvdA kept leader until last moment, even though it was clear he was implictated in "benefits scandal".
- Klaver was very unpopular leader and had terrible campaign.

10. Unexpected, at least by me, 3-party coalition is now possible: VVD + D66 + CDA.

More likely is a continuation of previous government (VVD+D66+CDA+CU), although D66 could try to get Volt on board to push more pro-EU and social liberal agenda.

11. The real question is now: what can D66 get out of the new coalition? For decades it has just supported right-wing agendas (i.e. VVD/CDA), now it has no excuse. But VVD is more right-wing than Rutte.

12. Expect CDA and GL to have a leadership discussion, while SP and PvdA will (have to) have more fundamental discussion about party ideology/strategy.

13. Which far right party will lose its first MP? One thing is certain, at the end of this parliamentary period there will not be 3 JA21 MPs and no 7 FvD MPs.

14. Incidentally, while FvD is bigger than JA21 in the (real) parliament, but JA21 is bigger in the Senate.

15. Other reason why there will probably be 4 parties in coalition is that they also will want to have a majority in the Senate, which has been problem for last years.

16. "Migrant" parties DENK and Bij1 are together at 3 seats, which is as much as DENK had by itself in 2017. And the seat for Bij1 will remain unclear for a bit, given the big margin of the exit poll.

17. Let's be clear, Rutte's 2017 claim that "good populism" defeated "bad populism" was and remains bullshit!

theguardian.com/world/2017/mar…

18. The ball is in the corner of D66. It no longer has an excuse to sell out its left-wing socio-cultural agenda to satisfy its right-wing socio-economic agenda and coalition partners. Will they finally live up to their social liberal reputation?

19. If you are young and classic Left, you really should think about starting an independent Left movement, far away from the toxic Left parties, and possibly even start a new Left party.

20. Reminder: this exit poll has margins of +/- 2 seats, so many details can change, but the main points are clear:

- coalition will continue but with stronger D66
- classic Left is irrelevant
- far right grows further
- many older parties are in crisis

#TK2021 #TheEnd