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Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
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6 Mar, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Welcome new followers🙏

I can't promise you'll agree with everything I write
In fact, I can guarantee you won't

I welcome your thoughtful engagement

Warning: Immediate muting of name callers, misrepresenters etc
sorry/not sorry

Plz follow my newsletter
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My next 2 newsletter topics

➡️transgender athletes
➡️vaccine hesitancy

One/both may get you worked up
So long as they make you think, that's OK

The goal of engagement is not agreement but a respectful exchange of ideas that makes everyone smarter & more understanding of others
Want to know my politics?

Label me a socialist/globalist/elitist & I wouldn't disagree
Fully reject politics of MAGA, populism, scientific authoritarianism

I'm a policy expert with highly nuanced views on some topics that don't easily fit into simple political bins
Deal with it
My academic work is here:
scholar.google.com/citations?user…

I'm always happy to share PDFs of any study not easily available, just DM

Finally, my wiring for broader consumption now happens mostly at my newsletter, please sign up
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Have a great weekend, and welcome!

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
4 Mar
🧵Via Chetty et al 2020 opportunityinsights.org/paper/undermat…

Family incomes of Univ of Colorado System students in these distributions of income:

Top 25%= 58% of students
Top 10%= 41%
Top 5% = 28%
Top 1% = 8%

If this is actually System (all 4 campuses) then CU Boulder is even more skewed
Of 1191 public universities in the Chettey et al 2020 database, only the University of Michigan has a greater proportion of rich students than does Univ of Colorado

Likely why CUB has (tie for) lowest average debt at graduation among PAC-12 schools
brookings.edu/opinions/biden…
At the same time, CU Boulder has the fewest Pell Grant recipients among PAC-12 schools
Read 4 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
1 Mar
🧵Some technical details following my post on the SCC

Here are cumulative CO2 emissions (FFI) to 2300 for each of the 5 USG scenarios (4 are BAU & 1 is policy), along with the extended RCP8.5 & 2 net-zero scenarios (for 2100 and 2200)

Let me emphasize how ridiculous this is🤡
Looking at the high (USG2) and low (USG5) scenarios gives a 2300 temperature increase of as much as >9 degrees C

I have annotated the figure with the red line indicating 3 deg C which occurs as early as ~2070 under USG2
Ok, now let's look at the IAM damage functions
Here I have annotated the figure by adding the red line denoting 3 deg C

Note that the vast majority of damage occurs >3 deg C (& up to 3C is ~0 +/-)
Read 7 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
28 Feb
How unrealistic are the scenarios underpinning the US "social cost of carbon" estimates?

Very

Figure below compares average cumulative CO2 emissions to 2300 assumed in US SCC scenarios with hypothetical net-zero scenarios for 2100 and 2200

Read more: rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-biden-ad…
Interesting/Odd

Research highlighted by US gov't to serve as basis for new SCC estimates all comes from just one group -- the Climate Impacts Lab

Left panel - IWG figure
Right panel - Original
It is interesting and odd because the Climate Impact Lab is a spin-off of a Steyer-Bloomberg-Paulson funded effort that really launched RCP8.5 into a more prominent position in science and policy

Details--> forbes.com/sites/rogerpie…
Read 5 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
21 Feb
There are many important lessons to be learned from the Texas blackout

But this event is not about increasing extremes, nor about an unstable climate, nor breaking the bounds of predictability

Not everything that happens is about climate change

nytimes.com/2021/02/20/cli…
I’m thinking that “climate deniers” should also refer to people who deny variability in climate

As “climate” has evolved to mean a cause of events we have lost its true meaning, the statistics of weather over decades and longer

And those statistics vary on all timescales
The Texas story is NOT that infrastructure built for a past climate is suddenly out of its zone

It’s that the infrastructure built for documented climate variability is not fit for purpose

Blaming climate change is both wrong & ignores the real culprit: poor decision making
Read 6 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
17 Feb
🧵Short thread on Texas weather, climate and robust decision making

NY Times @bradplumer reports what the "worst case" planning scenario was by ERCOT for winter 2020/21
nytimes.com/2021/02/16/cli…

But was it really a "worst case"?
Far from it ...
The 67MW "worst case" comes from using 2011 winter as an analogue
Source: ercot.com/news/releases/…
Where does 2011 sit in terms of recent history?
EIA has heating degree days for "West South Central" US (TX, OK, AR, LA)
Turns out 2011 ranks 24th most HDD for the region since 1973
2011 was not a "worst case" -- not even close
Source: eia.gov/energyexplaine…
Read 6 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr. Profile picture
17 Feb
🧵I took a look at the recent AIR report on hurricanes and climate change. A few fatal flaws, unfortunately.
Fatal flaw 1
RCP8.5 as BAU
Fatal flaw 2
AIR cites GFDL CMIP5/RCP4.5 to justify projected 35% increase in Cat 4/5 by 2050 doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D…

But GFDL actually says 35% increase in Cat 4/5 hurr days, not frequency w/ only increase in freq is in NE Pacific & globally -18% total hurricanes (table below)
Read 4 tweets

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