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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
@DrEricDing
Mar 20, 2021 • 29 tweets • 20 min read • Read on X
B117 variant is now *dominant* in the US. I’m 99% certain that another surge is on the way in April or May. Why? The more contagious #B117 is surging—now crossed the 50% threshold of all cases, in addition to pockets of others variants. 🧵 #COVID19
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/… Image
2) Just Wednesday, #B117 has hit 50% of all cases in the @my_helix database nationwide. It’s been exponentially surging for weeks. Image
3) @ashishkjha is right- “No matter where you live, it is too early to relax restrictions that continue to have a critical role in controlling this pandemic. From CA to ME, FL to Seattle, the #COVID19 winter is not yet done—highly infectious variants are threatening new storms.”
4) “But the latest national data, which show case rates have plateaued, indicate that we are not there yet. Over the past week, we have seen about 50,000 new cases reported daily. That’s not far from the **height of the surge last summer**”
5) Unfortunately, the public has been served the "it's-under-control" nonsense, pictured on panel A. But the reality is that it is exponentially even it growing slowly - because that’s how ever exponential function starts. It always sneaks ups.

(Figure by @GosiaGasperoPhD) Image
6) Take Alberta 🇨🇦 for example—people dismissed it for weeks. But the data is playing out exactly and predicted...

(Figure by @GosiaGasperoPhD). Image
7) We had predicted the graph above long ago... here was over a month ago... does it look familiar? It’s almost exactly the shape of the graph above.
8) Back to the US — Florida #B117 is hovering around 51% range. Florida’s decline has now stalled. Image
9) But there is a new champion in #B117 lead— 61% #B117 in Georgia, where cases has been rising daily for last 5 days. Image
10) And how is Michigan doing in #B117? It tops even Georgia. Michigan #B117 is now 62.5%. How is Michigan cases doing? Also surging in March. ImageImage
11) it was previously predicted that #B117 would pass 50% previously (@K_G_Andersen’s group) on March 23rd nationwide in the US.

We just passed it early... 6 days early. Damn.
12) Almost every epidemiologist agrees a 4th surge is coming. It is almost inevitable. The only question is how bad will it be. Maybe not that bad if we vaccinate faster. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
13) What makes me sad is that, aside from Australia, New Zealand, Vietnam, and Taiwan (all ~zero Covid countries) we never act fast enough until it is much too late. Leadership failures.

Correction- this figure is by @vb_jens. Image
14) But there are other variants to worry about too. In he UK and France, the South Africa #B1351 is also rising steadily. Here is a good thread 🧵 on their rise in the UK. The SA variant is the most problematic in vaccine lab studies so far.

Image
15) Notably, in the large study of Pfizer and NIH-Moderna vaccinated people, the 🇿🇦 #B1351 variant is the most troublesome. (This thread 🧵 below has been vetted and concurred by 2 immunology colleagues).

Good news is #B117 responds well to the vaccines! so take it!
16) I also want everyone to look carefully just how gosh darn PERFECTLY ACCURATE the Feb 1st model by @GosiaGasperoPhD was to the reality currently. Her forecasts were always exactly as predicted.

Hence let’s please not relax too soon. Surge is coming.
Image
17) This is why even with vaccinations, we have to be vigilant — relaxing everything else in terms of mitigation is a recipe for disaster until we have vaccinated up to vaccine herd immunity thresholds — likely 85% range for #B117 given its higher contagiousness.
18) And please continue to mask even if vaccinated due to residual chance of carrying virus. And definitely do NOT rely on prior #COVID19 infection for sufficient protection. It’s only 47% in the elderly!
19) Notice the sharp dropoff in the protection from reinfection by age. It’s only ~80% under 65, but only 47% in those 65 or older!

Also semi good news is that protection seems to be as good over 7 months. But not that high.

thelancet.com/action/showPdf… Image
20) meantime—I’m more worried about #P1–here is the ominous study on #P1 variant that is now everywhere in 🇧🇷... it is 2.52x faster transmission that old wild common type of #SARSCoV2. That is 152% increase! #B117 is only 40-60% faster.

medrxiv.org/content/10.110… Image
21) Another Brazil 🇧🇷 #COVID19 research group puts #P1 transmission at 2x faster than old strain (instead of 2.5x above), but they estimate a way worse whopping 25-60% reinfection rate! Ugh.

I’m honestly not sure which is worse. Both models really bad. bbc.com/news/amp/healt…
22) to be clear—the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines works against #B117–lots of studies. But for the #P1 and #B1351 variants, neutralization of the pseudovirus in lab by vaccine sera shows slight issues with #P1 and bigger issues with #B1351. We need to urgently chase #ZeroCovid. ImageImage
23) I’m a big fan of the J&J single dose vaccine — it not only grows stronger over time, but it also has good efficacy in both South Africa and Brazil! (Albeit before #P1 became heavily dominant in Brazil).
24) But I’m worried about #P1 and #B117 most of all. #P1 especially because it poses both potential reinfection risk and possibly faster transmission than even the already faster #B117 (see above). We need to keep #P1 contained in Brazil and squash out all 🌎 scattered #P1 cases.
25) Because we can’t let what’s happening in Brazil keep happening... or let it happen to other countries.

The world needs to unite together during a pandemic with the 3 Musketeers’ “ALL FOR ONE, ONE FOR ALL” motto. Or else we will sink as one planet. Image
26) Now the US needs to share its vaccine stockpile and vaccine excess orders with the world. And send aid to Brazil 🇧🇷. Or else we will all drown under the variants.

Let’s unite to fight this pandemic... all for one, one for all!

God help us.
27) I’m so tired... been trying to warn about this exact #B117 for over 6 weeks. So so tired.
28) things in South Florida are going as well as can be expected... #B117 variant surging there.

Why do we ignore this warning sign? I didn’t suffer through a doctorate in epidemiology by age 23, just so that DeSantis can pretend to govern in a pandemic.
sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl…
29) #B117 update—Germany entering a new stricter lockdown after #B117 is growing and fueling another increase across EU.

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Jul 19
Concerning—CDC now says that 42 states are seeing rising rates of #COVID19 again—with levels high or very high in 35 states (and rising). COVID wastewater levels have already surpassed last summer’s peak and climbing fast. #CovidIsNotOver
cdc.gov/forecast-outbr…


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2) Substantial 28% increase in one week. Question is how high it will go. It’s a new variant (mostly KP2 and KP3 and JN1), which are evasive against past infection and past vaccines.
3) COVID is surging in many countries worldwide. Eg in Italy where deaths are also climbing once again. New variants, new surges.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Jul 3
A girl using cover name JANE DOE testified under oath at Ghislaine Maxwell’s criminal trial that she was introduced to Trump by Jeffrey Epstein when she was 14 years old. Pass it on.
Trump’s name appears 7 times in Epstein’s latest files. They regularly called each other according to phone logs. Trump says Epstein is a “terrific guy”. And he traveled on flights, according to logs, to Epstein’s island multiple times.
3) THIS STUFF IS NEW—not old Epstein-Trump info. New information regarding Epstein's child trafficking activities was released 7/2/24. Documents from 2016 are now out of date and do not show the depth of Trump's dealings with Epstein... READ MORE:

nymag.com/intelligencer/…
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Jul 2
Reminder—Trump had expressed executing people on many occasions while President, according to his own Attorney General. Now the Supreme Court has green lit any official act with full presidential immunity. Germany did the same in 1933. It turned out great.
2) If we ignore history, we are bound to repeat it. How Germany became Nazi Germany in 1933….
3) And the U.S. military will become Trump’s official personal army.
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Jul 1
American Democracy is dead. Long Live the King. The King can now “assassinate you, officially”.

By @ElieNYC
thenation.com/article/societ…
Image
2) Laws aren’t really laws anymore to the President of the United States. Who do you want as president now?
3) American democracy had a great 240-year run. Too bad it’s now sorta over after today’s SCOTUS ruling.
Image
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Jun 23
📍 The New York Times Is Failing Its Readers Badly on Covid

📌“Example of ‘science opinion’ run amok in the [NY Times] is a piece… by Zeynep Tufekci, a commentator with no training in biological science or epidemiology… ➡️Tufekci plays into the hands of the anti-science politicians who now seek vengeance on the flimsiest of grounds.”

By GREGG GONSALVES and JOHN P. MOORE
thenation.com/article/societ…Image
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2) “Tufekci also adds to the ongoing pile-on about whether the directive to maintain a distance of six feet from others was needed. Although the precise distance was indeed somewhat arbitrary, there was no possibility of obtaining hard data in the relevant time frame. The six-foot distance was a reasonable assumption based on public health history, and the practice of social distancing for other respiratory pathogens, particularly those spread by droplets. It was also adopted in multiple other countries, for the same reasons.”
3) “The problem here isn’t that Tufekci is questioning the evidentiary basis of the six-foot rule—science and public health cannot progress if we don’t evaluate the results of our work. But that progress is more effective when grounded in good-faith inquiry, rather than the kinds of attacks Tufekci levels against government scientists for doing their best in desperate circumstances. This only serves to bolster the forces who seek to destroy the US public health infrastructure, not make it better.

Tufekci also leaves the impression that she alone realized SARS-CoV-2 was airborne early on. In fact, the debate about transmission was fast and furious within the scientific community at that time”
Read 9 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Jun 17
⚠️Whooping cough has smashed all records in UK🇬🇧 with barely any serious govt actions. These are NEW CASES PER WEEK, not cumulative. Each week smashing previous. Other countries rising too amid anti-vax. Pertussis is also airborne!

Graph @1goodtern
gov.uk/government/pub…
Image
2) And yes it’s airborne damnit. CDC says so.

cdc.gov/pertussis/hcp/…
Image
3) Whooping cough is also extremely contagious. For up to 3 weeks. With UK govt advising staying home for 3 full weeks if no antibiotic treatment. How many people being told that and doing that?

nhs.uk/conditions/who…
Image
Read 8 tweets

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