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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
@DrEricDing
Mar 20, 2021 • 29 tweets • 20 min read • Read on X
B117 variant is now *dominant* in the US. I’m 99% certain that another surge is on the way in April or May. Why? The more contagious #B117 is surging—now crossed the 50% threshold of all cases, in addition to pockets of others variants. 🧵 #COVID19
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/… Image
2) Just Wednesday, #B117 has hit 50% of all cases in the @my_helix database nationwide. It’s been exponentially surging for weeks. Image
3) @ashishkjha is right- “No matter where you live, it is too early to relax restrictions that continue to have a critical role in controlling this pandemic. From CA to ME, FL to Seattle, the #COVID19 winter is not yet done—highly infectious variants are threatening new storms.”
4) “But the latest national data, which show case rates have plateaued, indicate that we are not there yet. Over the past week, we have seen about 50,000 new cases reported daily. That’s not far from the **height of the surge last summer**”
5) Unfortunately, the public has been served the "it's-under-control" nonsense, pictured on panel A. But the reality is that it is exponentially even it growing slowly - because that’s how ever exponential function starts. It always sneaks ups.

(Figure by @GosiaGasperoPhD) Image
6) Take Alberta 🇨🇦 for example—people dismissed it for weeks. But the data is playing out exactly and predicted...

(Figure by @GosiaGasperoPhD). Image
7) We had predicted the graph above long ago... here was over a month ago... does it look familiar? It’s almost exactly the shape of the graph above.
8) Back to the US — Florida #B117 is hovering around 51% range. Florida’s decline has now stalled. Image
9) But there is a new champion in #B117 lead— 61% #B117 in Georgia, where cases has been rising daily for last 5 days. Image
10) And how is Michigan doing in #B117? It tops even Georgia. Michigan #B117 is now 62.5%. How is Michigan cases doing? Also surging in March. ImageImage
11) it was previously predicted that #B117 would pass 50% previously (@K_G_Andersen’s group) on March 23rd nationwide in the US.

We just passed it early... 6 days early. Damn.
12) Almost every epidemiologist agrees a 4th surge is coming. It is almost inevitable. The only question is how bad will it be. Maybe not that bad if we vaccinate faster. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
13) What makes me sad is that, aside from Australia, New Zealand, Vietnam, and Taiwan (all ~zero Covid countries) we never act fast enough until it is much too late. Leadership failures.

Correction- this figure is by @vb_jens. Image
14) But there are other variants to worry about too. In he UK and France, the South Africa #B1351 is also rising steadily. Here is a good thread 🧵 on their rise in the UK. The SA variant is the most problematic in vaccine lab studies so far.

Image
15) Notably, in the large study of Pfizer and NIH-Moderna vaccinated people, the 🇿🇦 #B1351 variant is the most troublesome. (This thread 🧵 below has been vetted and concurred by 2 immunology colleagues).

Good news is #B117 responds well to the vaccines! so take it!
16) I also want everyone to look carefully just how gosh darn PERFECTLY ACCURATE the Feb 1st model by @GosiaGasperoPhD was to the reality currently. Her forecasts were always exactly as predicted.

Hence let’s please not relax too soon. Surge is coming.
Image
17) This is why even with vaccinations, we have to be vigilant — relaxing everything else in terms of mitigation is a recipe for disaster until we have vaccinated up to vaccine herd immunity thresholds — likely 85% range for #B117 given its higher contagiousness.
18) And please continue to mask even if vaccinated due to residual chance of carrying virus. And definitely do NOT rely on prior #COVID19 infection for sufficient protection. It’s only 47% in the elderly!
19) Notice the sharp dropoff in the protection from reinfection by age. It’s only ~80% under 65, but only 47% in those 65 or older!

Also semi good news is that protection seems to be as good over 7 months. But not that high.

thelancet.com/action/showPdf… Image
20) meantime—I’m more worried about #P1–here is the ominous study on #P1 variant that is now everywhere in 🇧🇷... it is 2.52x faster transmission that old wild common type of #SARSCoV2. That is 152% increase! #B117 is only 40-60% faster.

medrxiv.org/content/10.110… Image
21) Another Brazil 🇧🇷 #COVID19 research group puts #P1 transmission at 2x faster than old strain (instead of 2.5x above), but they estimate a way worse whopping 25-60% reinfection rate! Ugh.

I’m honestly not sure which is worse. Both models really bad. bbc.com/news/amp/healt…
22) to be clear—the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines works against #B117–lots of studies. But for the #P1 and #B1351 variants, neutralization of the pseudovirus in lab by vaccine sera shows slight issues with #P1 and bigger issues with #B1351. We need to urgently chase #ZeroCovid. ImageImage
23) I’m a big fan of the J&J single dose vaccine — it not only grows stronger over time, but it also has good efficacy in both South Africa and Brazil! (Albeit before #P1 became heavily dominant in Brazil).
24) But I’m worried about #P1 and #B117 most of all. #P1 especially because it poses both potential reinfection risk and possibly faster transmission than even the already faster #B117 (see above). We need to keep #P1 contained in Brazil and squash out all 🌎 scattered #P1 cases.
25) Because we can’t let what’s happening in Brazil keep happening... or let it happen to other countries.

The world needs to unite together during a pandemic with the 3 Musketeers’ “ALL FOR ONE, ONE FOR ALL” motto. Or else we will sink as one planet. Image
26) Now the US needs to share its vaccine stockpile and vaccine excess orders with the world. And send aid to Brazil 🇧🇷. Or else we will all drown under the variants.

Let’s unite to fight this pandemic... all for one, one for all!

God help us.
27) I’m so tired... been trying to warn about this exact #B117 for over 6 weeks. So so tired.
28) things in South Florida are going as well as can be expected... #B117 variant surging there.

Why do we ignore this warning sign? I didn’t suffer through a doctorate in epidemiology by age 23, just so that DeSantis can pretend to govern in a pandemic.
sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl…
29) #B117 update—Germany entering a new stricter lockdown after #B117 is growing and fueling another increase across EU.

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Apr 10
It’s a trap: CATCH 22—if you register, ICE will deport you. If you don’t register, you’ve now committed a crime for the first time, and ICE will deport you. Trump doesn’t care if you’ve paid all taxes and followed all laws—ICE will deport you.

apnews.com/article/illega…Image
2) The Department of Homeland Security announced that it was mandating that all people in the United States illegally register with the federal government, and said those who didn’t self-report could face fines or prosecution. ***Failure to register is considered a crime***
3) Registration will be mandatory for everyone 14 and older without legal status. People registering have to provide their fingerprints and address, and parents and guardians of anyone under age 14 must ensure they registered. The registration process also applies to Canadians who are in the U.S. for more than 30 days, such as so-called snowbirds who spend winter months in places like Florida.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Apr 3
Now economists know how scientists felt back when he pushed “hydroxychloroquine”
2) HCQ preventing COVID deaths has been debunked— and it’s now been linked with deaths.

@JoshuaPCohen1
forbes.com/sites/joshuaco…Image
@JoshuaPCohen1 3) JPMorgan on Trump Tariffs: “The largest tax increase since 1968” Image
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 28
My god—Earthquake (a Richter ~7.7) causes a skyscraper to collapse in Bangkok. Hope all the construction workers made it out.
2) this skyscraper collapse was captured from a distant car’s dashcam while on a highway

3) another view of the collapse. For those who lived through 9/11, this collapse is a bit triggering.
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 27
Welp—kiss public health & medical research infrastructure in America goodbye for the next 4 years. RFK Jr plans to cut 10,000 jobs from Trump HHS. Image
2) this will not make America healthy again… not by a long shot. So dangerous and irresponsible.
3) “Kennedy is set to announce Thursday the planned changes, which include axing 10,000 full-time employees spread across departments tasked with responding to disease outbreaks, approving new drugs, providing insurance for the poorest Americans and more”.
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 15
SICKENING—Trump’s DHS just deported a surgeon from Brown University Medical School—who is here legally on an H1B visa that doesn’t expire until 2027, and has committed no crimes. Trained in the U.S. at Ohio State, University of Washington, and Yale as a **transplant surgeon** (one of the most difficult surgical fields in all of medicine!!!), she is a highly trained doctor on kidney transplants, which cannot be easily replaced. Her phone was seized at the border. A federal judge handed down an injunction against her deportation—but she was already deported on a plane en route to Paris. Brown’s kidney transplant clinic is now strained by her deportation.Image
Image
2) Full text:

PROVIDENCE — A Rhode Island doctor who had traveled to Lebanon to see her parents was prevented from re-entering the United States at Boston’s Logan International Airport on Thursday evening, her lawyer and a colleague said.

Dr. Rasha Alawieh, 34, who lives in Providence, has been working at Brown Medicine’s Division of Kidney Disease & Hypertension since last July, and she [has] been part of the transplant service at Rhode Island Hospital, according to Dr. George Bayliss, the organ transplant division’s medical director. She has been studying and working in the United States for about six years, he said Friday.

The US consulate in Lebanon had issued her an H-1B visa, which is given to people in specialty occupations requiring expertise. The visa was valid through mid-2027, said Thomas S. Brown, an attorney representing her and Brown Medicine.

Alawieh was detained when she returned to Logan airport, and family members are afraid that she is about to be deported to Lebanon, he said.

“We are at a loss as to why this happened,” Brown said. “I don’t know if it’s a byproduct of the Trump crackdown on immigration. I don’t know if it’s a travel ban or some other issue.”

He said her phone has been seized and he has not been able to contact Alawieh.

Bayliss said a lawyer filed a petition with the US District Court in Massachusetts, and Judge Leo T. Sorokin issued an order saying Alawieh should not be moved outside of Massachusetts without 48 hours notice. But he said that message apparently did not reach immigration officials in time, and a plane carrying Alawieh left for Paris.

“This is outrageous,” Bayliss said in an interview. “This is a person who is legally entitled to be in the U.S., who is stopped from re-entering the country for reasons no one knows. It’s depriving her patients of a good physician.”

A US Customs and Border Patrol spokesperson, Ryan Brissette, was not able to immediately answer questions about Alawieh on Friday evening.

Bayliss said Alawieh graduated from the American University of Beirut medical school and came to the United States for a nephrology fellowship at Ohio State University. She then landed a transplant fellowship at University of Washington and had a residency in the Yale hospital system before starting at Brown Medicine last July, he said.

“She’s really a very humble and able person,” Bayliss said. “She takes care of her patients. She is talented and thoughtful and a great addition to our division.”

Bayliss said Alawieh went to Lebanon to visit parents and planned to be gone for two weeks. He said she texted a colleague at 6:30 p.m. Thursday saying she was back in Boston, but then her family heard from immigration officials.

Dr. Paul Morrissey, surgical director of the organ transplant division at Brown University Health, said Alawieh works on getting people in Rhode Island on the list for a kidney transplants, and that’s a crucial job at a time when there has been a lot of focus on the need for kidneys and their equitable distribution.

He said Alawieh should not have had any problem traveling out of the country with an H-1B visa.

“It’s an unfortunate set of circumstances,” Morrissey said. “It’s putting a strain on our office. Her work has been exceptional.”

bostonglobe.com/2025/03/14/met…Image
3) There is a new Trump ban against many countries, including tourist visa bans against all countries in the red and orange lists. This list is still tentative. And it shouldn’t have affected people with existing visas, such and the Brown kidney transplant surgeon Image
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 14
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again… once upon a time, liberals did have our own “Leftist Joe Rogan”… his name was Joe Rogan…

Here he is advocating for socialized medicine, healthcare for all, and supporting labor unions to protect workers.
2) Recall, Rogan was once pro Obama and pro Bernie Sanders, and pro Yang Gang, and anti Trump. It’s sad he has since failed to the dark side. But like Vader… maybe he can be redeemed someday and come back to the light.
3) *Fallen, not failed (above).

Joe Rogan was also pro gay rights and pro DACA and pro helping inner city communities that suffer economic and social injustices. It’s sad what he has become. I feel we should try to pull & welcome him back someday. Everyone can be redeemed.
Read 4 tweets

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