Maharashtra Power Play
This development gives the NIA, compete investigative control of the #AntiliaCase.
How can the MH Power-Play evolve from here?
While the news-flow regarding the cases will continue, the potential political realignment will be the lasting outcome.
This development gives the NIA, compete investigative control of the #AntiliaCase.
How can the MH Power-Play evolve from here?
While the news-flow regarding the cases will continue, the potential political realignment will be the lasting outcome.
https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1373187694847619073
After Sachin Vaze, the next in line for interrogation could likely be the ex-Mumbai CP Parambir Singh.
The change of guard was likely a measure by the MH Government to avoid the embarrassment of NIA interrogating a sitting CP.
NIA meeting Mumbai CP could be in this regard.
The change of guard was likely a measure by the MH Government to avoid the embarrassment of NIA interrogating a sitting CP.
NIA meeting Mumbai CP could be in this regard.
With both the key cops under NIA interrogation, the emerging details had the potential to be politically inconvenient for the MVA Sarkar.
Change of stance of MVA in its arguments in MH Assembly v/s it’s firefighting actions now is instructive.
It’s the Damage Control mode.
Change of stance of MVA in its arguments in MH Assembly v/s it’s firefighting actions now is instructive.
It’s the Damage Control mode.
Parambir Singh going on leave and not taking charge of his new assignment and apparently also not handing over properly suggests him not being too pleased being thrown under the bus.
Apart from #AntiliaCase, he is an insider on all high profile MVA cases — SSR-Disha-Arnab.
Apart from #AntiliaCase, he is an insider on all high profile MVA cases — SSR-Disha-Arnab.
Can he use his insider status to negotiate a plea bargain with the Center to also help them in other cases?
That’s certainly a tool in his self-defense arsenal.
Like Vaze, he isn’t accused of direct involvement in either “acts” of the #AntiliaCase.
Pressure point for ShivSena.
That’s certainly a tool in his self-defense arsenal.
Like Vaze, he isn’t accused of direct involvement in either “acts” of the #AntiliaCase.
Pressure point for ShivSena.
While news reports are speculating on change of guard at MH-HM, Anil Deshmukh’s resignation/ transfer, even if it were to materialize will be for optics. Not much moves with it.
The move will further strengthen NCP Chief’s bargaining power within MVA, as the buck stops with CM!
The move will further strengthen NCP Chief’s bargaining power within MVA, as the buck stops with CM!
With BJP mounting pressure on “finding Vaze handlers”, the pressure on Uddhav Thackeray to resign may gradually mount.
And Saheb will use this crisis to strengthen his hold over MVA Sarkar with an eye on CM post
Since UPA days, Saheb warns allies to not disturb Industrialists.
And Saheb will use this crisis to strengthen his hold over MVA Sarkar with an eye on CM post
Since UPA days, Saheb warns allies to not disturb Industrialists.
If a political role in the terror & extortion threats to the most powerful Indian Industrialist does get established during the investigation, the unease within Corporate India against MVA Sarkar can exhibit in various ways.
The pressure for CM’s resignation will intensify.
The pressure for CM’s resignation will intensify.
For Saheb, CM resignation will be a low-cost alternative than risking a No Confidence Motion in the MH Assembly.
The joker in the pack is Congress.
They don’t have much Skin-In-the-Game in terms of Ministries but have enough SITG to lose political capital at National level.
The joker in the pack is Congress.
They don’t have much Skin-In-the-Game in terms of Ministries but have enough SITG to lose political capital at National level.
In the internal Power Play of MVA Sarkar, it makes imminent sense for Congress to bargain hard for Ministries of its choice to ensure its continued participation and risking its Political Capital.
Cost-Benefit Framework for a National Party will be different from Regional Party.
Cost-Benefit Framework for a National Party will be different from Regional Party.
If Congress doesn’t get appeased, they may choose to pull out of MVA if the Investigative Disclosures + Court Observations become embarked MVA Sarkar.
If MVA Sarkar survives, the relative strengths of the three players is likely to undergo a dramatic shift, favoring NCP-CONG.
If MVA Sarkar survives, the relative strengths of the three players is likely to undergo a dramatic shift, favoring NCP-CONG.
Internal MVA dynamics aside, the External dynamics which are in control of BJP are equally powerful in the #AntiliaCase.
In no case until now - SSR/Disha/Republic - has the pressure been so intense on MVA.
Even in this case, until the NIA came in, MVA was slugging it through.
In no case until now - SSR/Disha/Republic - has the pressure been so intense on MVA.
Even in this case, until the NIA came in, MVA was slugging it through.
Clearly the External dynamics are being dictated by the Ambani factor, which seems intense currently!
Terror threat to the families is a completely different proposition than Ambani-Adani barbs.
Corporate India has enough levers to facilitate smooth functioning of Governments.
Terror threat to the families is a completely different proposition than Ambani-Adani barbs.
Corporate India has enough levers to facilitate smooth functioning of Governments.
From BJP’s perspective, if BJP can create enough pressure to induce a wedge between NCP-Congress and Shiv Sena, the MVA Sarkar may unravel under its own contradictions.
Court Observations too will likely play a large part as these cases move forward.
Court Observations too will likely play a large part as these cases move forward.
Adverse Court Observations + Disenchantment of Corporate India with MVA Sarkar may play a similar role in sullying the image of MVA as was last seen during the UPA-2 era when the various scams broke out.
If MVA can survive this ongoing typhoon, then it will easily last full term
If MVA can survive this ongoing typhoon, then it will easily last full term
By the same token, this will be BJP’s best bet to dislodge MVA through a No Confidence Motion.
Will it lead to fresh elections?
Unlikely!
Even the BJP wouldn’t want that at this stage as winning against the incumbent and combined tri-partite arrangement is extremely difficult.
Will it lead to fresh elections?
Unlikely!
Even the BJP wouldn’t want that at this stage as winning against the incumbent and combined tri-partite arrangement is extremely difficult.
That opens two possibilities (a) BJP-NCP Government or (b) Defections of at-least 31+ MLAs to NDA.
If push comes to the shove, Saheb may again explore (a) despite a compromised bargaining position v/s the speculated position post 2019 MH Assembly elections.
If push comes to the shove, Saheb may again explore (a) despite a compromised bargaining position v/s the speculated position post 2019 MH Assembly elections.
The real Power-Play in MH will be dominated by the Modi-Shah-Fadnavis v/s Pawar with Congress as the Joker in the Pack.
There are multiple open fronts with BJP currently.
NCB moved on Rhea bail in SC once Vaze was in NIA custody.
Current cases are additional to legacy cases.
There are multiple open fronts with BJP currently.
NCB moved on Rhea bail in SC once Vaze was in NIA custody.
Current cases are additional to legacy cases.
With Parambir Singh interrogations likely to follow, MVA will be jittery.
Once the untenability of MVA Sarkar is sensed, (b) comes into play and the probability of defections from MVA to NDA increases under No Confidence Motion.
Once the untenability of MVA Sarkar is sensed, (b) comes into play and the probability of defections from MVA to NDA increases under No Confidence Motion.
This is the biggest opening BJP will get in MH which they are likely to fully exploit by making a play for it
Whether they succeed is a different discussion!
Either way, Shiv Sena is likely to be the most disadvantaged in bargain - Either on a Relative basis or Absolute!
Whether they succeed is a different discussion!
Either way, Shiv Sena is likely to be the most disadvantaged in bargain - Either on a Relative basis or Absolute!
And thus the momentum of the internal MVA strife and contradictions begins to accelerate!
https://twitter.com/TimesNow/status/1373252255361630209
Gondogol in Maharashtra Politics
Do read this excellent primer on the ongojng saga in MH by @MandarSawant184
mandarsawant.com/2021/03/21/gon…
Do read this excellent primer on the ongojng saga in MH by @MandarSawant184
mandarsawant.com/2021/03/21/gon…
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