Thread by @JasonMBrodsky

Thread: #Iran's Supreme Leader gave a speech for the New Year today. Some takeaways: (1) Khamenei focuses as usual on the need for more production, saying there has been a rise in production in some fields, but not in all. 1/15

(2) Alluding to the next president, Khamenei says the new management must be anti-corruption; be able to overcome the problems of the country; must have a popular base; and sanctions will then become ineffective. This focus is part of what he calls "nullifying sanctions." 2/15

(3) Khamenei says sanctions imposed by U.S. are "a major criminality." But he says this threat was turned into an opportunity--with youths creating self-sufficient industries. (4) In combatting sanctions, there are two options: asking the other party to lift the sanctions or 3/15

to activate domestic forces. This last option will lead to the ineffectiveness of the sanctions "and our nation has chosen the second path and has obtained major breakthroughs." Khamenei has made similar comments before... 4/15

But his comment that #Iran has chosen the second path--nullifying the sanctions--is still notable and offers a contrast with Rouhani who has focused more on lifting the sanctions, and engagement with the world. 5/15

(5) But Khamenei as usual keeps the door open to lifting the sanctions, yet says the new government should engage in economic planning with the assumption the economic sanctions will remain. He indirectly criticizes Rouhani administration for focusing on lifting sanctions. 6/15

(6) With regard to presidential elections, he speaks of "renovating" executive branch with new and motivated individuals. He also emphasizes the need for turnout and accuses #Israel and U.S. "espionage apparatuses" of making efforts to undermine participation. 7/15

(7) Khamenei, despite overseeing #Iran's deep state and being the constitutional commander-in-chief, says the presidency has the highest authority and shoulders the most responsibility in the country in response to claims the presidency doesn't have a lot of power. 8/15

(8) On candidates, he says they should be familiar with economic issues; foreign policy; culture; and other fields. If they are not capable of shouldering this heavy burden, they should refrain from entering this campaign. 9/15

(9) Khamenei says a new president (and his description sounds a lot like Ebrahim Raisi) should be faithful, competent, a justice-seeker, seek to combat corruption, engage in jihadi and revolutionary performance, and must believe in domestic capabilities... 10/15

(10) Giving a nod to some candidates campaigning on cross-factional appeal, Khamenei says divisions in elections must be set aside & should not harm national unity. (11) Khamenei says U.S. maximum pressure policy has failed. #Iran's policy on interaction w. JCPOA parties... 11/15

has been declared explicitly (despite a robust internal debate and conflicting signals at times). U.S. must first lift ALL sanctions, Iran has to verify it, and then #Iran will return to its commitments. No mention of step-by-step process that Rouhani has put forward. 12/15

He cites some Americans as saying the situation from 2015 has changed. Khamenei agrees, but claims situation has changed to #Iran's benefit. (12) Lastly, on the JCPOA, Khamenei says while we believe opportunities should be used, "we are not in a hurry..." 13/15

and to act hasty in some cases would be to #Iran's detriment. Khamenei cites the experience of the JCPOA and how the country acted in a hurried manner. So this comment demonstrates the reduced political space that Rouhani and Zarif have to operate. 14/15

Khamenei is betting that by waiting out the U.S. and Europe and that by escalating on the nuclear file and in the region, this will force U.S. and Europe to make more concessions because of their desperation to preserve the JCPOA. 15/15