The optimal strategy when punditing on more than two options is to give a 40% chance to the top scenario and get everything else as close as possible. Summers should have gone with:
In a binary bet, eg between inflation and no inflation, it’s optimal for a pundit to assign a 60-40 split between the options. That way they’re usually right, but if they’re wrong they get to say “I told you so” and are usually less wrong than other people.
This is probably a horrible way to make money, but it’s a reasonably good strategy for relative media credibility if you kinda know what you’re talking about but haven’t developed a good model to approximate reality
Alexander knows what he's talking about here. Our polling with YouGov finds that ~12% of adults say they've received 2doses of the vaccine, which is the same share the CDC reports. Don't see much evidence of response bias, except maybe some expressive hesitancy from Republicans.
We have been talking a lot about Republicans' gains with Hispanics recently, and rightly so! But since Democrats' gained in vote share v 2016, I also wanted to look at the swing among whites that gave them the WH & Senate. Turns out it came from both white liberals and moderates.
A note: These numbers are based on 2 months worth of polling data that YouGov kindly collects for The Economist each week. But while the N is large, I'd caution against reading too much into non-validated turnout; contemporaneous self-reports are good but not the final word.
I think, as @davidshor does, that ideological polarization is a dead-end for Democrats. They are a big tent party that needs to manage polarized white liberals, swingy moderates, and ideologically diverse non-whites. Going too far left could imperil that. HOWEVER,
my fiancée says that when she was in high school, her history teacher would give them extra credit if they wrote “god bless ronald reagan” on their tests. let’s stop pretending students filtering or altering their views at school is in any way new or different
my history and english teachers would play fox news before class and go on rants about obamacare death panels, gun control and social spending like every week. urban conservatives do not have a monopoly on feeling out of place at school