Ben Chu Profile picture
16 Mar, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Last week, alongside the January trade figures, the @ONS said:

“Despite the slow start for trade in January 2021, data from [its fortnightly Business Insights and Conditions Survey] suggests that importing and exporting began to increase towards the end of January.”...
A bit frustratingly it didn't show precisely which bits of survey data it was referring to in the release.

I've had time to dig around in the spreadsheets and contacted the survey compilers and the answer is...ons.gov.uk/economy/econom…
...That the share of UK firms reporting that they are exporting "as normal" has risen from 40.4% in January to 48.4% in February.

Meanwhile, the share of firms reporting that they have not been able to export at all has fallen from 20.2% to 11.2% 👇...
...Yes, there's some encouragement here that stress on trading firms eased in Feb.

But also note that there still seems to very high stress relative to normal (almost half not exporting as normal)- & stress was high before the Brexit transition ended presumably due to Covid...
More on the January trade figures here:

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More from @BenChu_

15 Mar
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey asked about implications of recent increase in Gilt yields on @BBCRadio4

Says: “Consistent with change in economic outlook”

i.e expectations of higher growth, rather than expectations of damaging inflation shock...
Bailey adds:

“Some rise in interest rates which is a reflection of stronger growth in the economy would make the overall debt situation in the long run more sustainable”.
Context: Gilt yields *are* up sharply this year - but note only up to pre-pandemic levels

Suggests normalisation, rather than market inflation panic...
Read 5 tweets
12 Mar
Why *did* UK exports to the EU fall by 40% in January?

📈🚚

A thread..
Explanations from the government
-Covid lockdowns depressing export demand
-Stockpiling by firms ahead of end of Brexit transition
-“Adjustment” to new post-Brexit trade arrangements

...2/
Let’s take each in turn.

Covid lockdowns hitting demand?

Problems: demand for UK goods from *outside* the EU held up...2/ Image
Read 15 tweets
11 Mar
Is Test and Trace really the most wasteful public spending programme ever?

A thread…🧵
The @CommonsPAC report on the value for money and effectiveness of the £37bn Test and Trace programme is pretty damning.

& former top Treasury civil servant @nickmacpherson2 says it “wins the prize for the most wasteful and inept public spending programme of all time”...2/
But is this verdict justified?

Or have there, in fact, been more egregious squanderings of taxpayers’ money in the past?

What could possibly compete?

Well, here’s some contenders...3/
Read 16 tweets
10 Mar
Why is the government killing off its ‘Industrial Strategy’ and why should we care?

A thread...🧵
On the face of it this is something of a puzzle.

Some have suggested this is about “neoliberal” or Thatcherite ideology at work – an aversion to government intervention in the market....2/
Yet this is not a government averse to intervening in the private sector economy, to put it mildly.

There’s the furlough of millions of jobs and billions in state-guaranteed loans...3/
Read 12 tweets
8 Mar
When the Bank of England (one day) starts tightening monetary policy will it start by:

a) raising interest rates?

b) or reversing QE?...

A short thread🧵
Before Covid the Bank said it wouldn't start reversing QE until Bank rate was up to around 1.5%.

But Andrew Bailey wrote last June that it *could* start reversing QE first...2/
"In my opinion it may be better to consider adjusting the level of reserves first without waiting to raise interest rates on a sustained basis."...3/ bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Read 10 tweets
6 Mar
We’re told that inflation is “Rishi’s nightmare”.

But should it be ours too? #Budget2021

A thread…📈🧵1/
UK inflation is just 0.7%.

But the argument is that it could shoot up fast as the economy reopens – partly because people spend all their lockdown savings at once & partly because of spillovers from the US where Biden is pushing through a 9% of US GDP fiscal stimulus...2/
The Spectator piece suggest this “could crush Britain’s economic recovery and follow the pandemic with a financial crisis”.

And fast rising US and UK government bond yields are cited as evidence that traders are betting on resurgent inflation...3/

spectator.co.uk/article/rishis…
Read 15 tweets

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