Ben Chu Profile picture
15 Mar, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey asked about implications of recent increase in Gilt yields on @BBCRadio4

Says: “Consistent with change in economic outlook”

i.e expectations of higher growth, rather than expectations of damaging inflation shock...
Bailey adds:

“Some rise in interest rates which is a reflection of stronger growth in the economy would make the overall debt situation in the long run more sustainable”.
Context: Gilt yields *are* up sharply this year - but note only up to pre-pandemic levels

Suggests normalisation, rather than market inflation panic...
Bailey's view consistent with Charlie Bean of the @OBR_UK who told TSC last week:

"What I wouldn't do is extrapolate from the recent couple of weeks to say: 'That is a trend that is going to continue, we will see markedly higher interest rates in the second half of this year'"

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More from @BenChu_

12 Mar
Why *did* UK exports to the EU fall by 40% in January?

📈🚚

A thread..
Explanations from the government
-Covid lockdowns depressing export demand
-Stockpiling by firms ahead of end of Brexit transition
-“Adjustment” to new post-Brexit trade arrangements

...2/
Let’s take each in turn.

Covid lockdowns hitting demand?

Problems: demand for UK goods from *outside* the EU held up...2/ Image
Read 15 tweets
11 Mar
Is Test and Trace really the most wasteful public spending programme ever?

A thread…🧵
The @CommonsPAC report on the value for money and effectiveness of the £37bn Test and Trace programme is pretty damning.

& former top Treasury civil servant @nickmacpherson2 says it “wins the prize for the most wasteful and inept public spending programme of all time”...2/
But is this verdict justified?

Or have there, in fact, been more egregious squanderings of taxpayers’ money in the past?

What could possibly compete?

Well, here’s some contenders...3/
Read 16 tweets
10 Mar
Why is the government killing off its ‘Industrial Strategy’ and why should we care?

A thread...🧵
On the face of it this is something of a puzzle.

Some have suggested this is about “neoliberal” or Thatcherite ideology at work – an aversion to government intervention in the market....2/
Yet this is not a government averse to intervening in the private sector economy, to put it mildly.

There’s the furlough of millions of jobs and billions in state-guaranteed loans...3/
Read 12 tweets
8 Mar
When the Bank of England (one day) starts tightening monetary policy will it start by:

a) raising interest rates?

b) or reversing QE?...

A short thread🧵
Before Covid the Bank said it wouldn't start reversing QE until Bank rate was up to around 1.5%.

But Andrew Bailey wrote last June that it *could* start reversing QE first...2/
"In my opinion it may be better to consider adjusting the level of reserves first without waiting to raise interest rates on a sustained basis."...3/ bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Read 10 tweets
6 Mar
We’re told that inflation is “Rishi’s nightmare”.

But should it be ours too? #Budget2021

A thread…📈🧵1/
UK inflation is just 0.7%.

But the argument is that it could shoot up fast as the economy reopens – partly because people spend all their lockdown savings at once & partly because of spillovers from the US where Biden is pushing through a 9% of US GDP fiscal stimulus...2/
The Spectator piece suggest this “could crush Britain’s economic recovery and follow the pandemic with a financial crisis”.

And fast rising US and UK government bond yields are cited as evidence that traders are betting on resurgent inflation...3/

spectator.co.uk/article/rishis…
Read 15 tweets
4 Mar
*How* exactly is Rishi Sunak bringing austerity back to public services?

✂️

A thread…🧵1/
“There's absolutely no way in which anyone can say that's austerity, we're spending more money on public services than we were," Sunak said last November...2/

news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
But this week a chorus of public finance experts said austerity is indeed returning to the public realm.

So who’s right? And what’s going on?...3/
Read 16 tweets

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