Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey asked about implications of recent increase in Gilt yields on @BBCRadio4
Says: “Consistent with change in economic outlook”
i.e expectations of higher growth, rather than expectations of damaging inflation shock...
Bailey adds:
“Some rise in interest rates which is a reflection of stronger growth in the economy would make the overall debt situation in the long run more sustainable”.
Context: Gilt yields *are* up sharply this year - but note only up to pre-pandemic levels
Suggests normalisation, rather than market inflation panic...
Bailey's view consistent with Charlie Bean of the @OBR_UK who told TSC last week:
"What I wouldn't do is extrapolate from the recent couple of weeks to say: 'That is a trend that is going to continue, we will see markedly higher interest rates in the second half of this year'"
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Why *did* UK exports to the EU fall by 40% in January?
📈🚚
A thread..
Explanations from the government
-Covid lockdowns depressing export demand
-Stockpiling by firms ahead of end of Brexit transition
-“Adjustment” to new post-Brexit trade arrangements
...2/
Let’s take each in turn.
Covid lockdowns hitting demand?
Problems: demand for UK goods from *outside* the EU held up...2/
Is Test and Trace really the most wasteful public spending programme ever?
A thread…🧵
The @CommonsPAC report on the value for money and effectiveness of the £37bn Test and Trace programme is pretty damning.
& former top Treasury civil servant @nickmacpherson2 says it “wins the prize for the most wasteful and inept public spending programme of all time”...2/
But is this verdict justified?
Or have there, in fact, been more egregious squanderings of taxpayers’ money in the past?
When the Bank of England (one day) starts tightening monetary policy will it start by:
a) raising interest rates?
b) or reversing QE?...
A short thread🧵
Before Covid the Bank said it wouldn't start reversing QE until Bank rate was up to around 1.5%.
But Andrew Bailey wrote last June that it *could* start reversing QE first...2/
"In my opinion it may be better to consider adjusting the level of reserves first without waiting to raise interest rates on a sustained basis."...3/ bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
But the argument is that it could shoot up fast as the economy reopens – partly because people spend all their lockdown savings at once & partly because of spillovers from the US where Biden is pushing through a 9% of US GDP fiscal stimulus...2/
The Spectator piece suggest this “could crush Britain’s economic recovery and follow the pandemic with a financial crisis”.
And fast rising US and UK government bond yields are cited as evidence that traders are betting on resurgent inflation...3/
*How* exactly is Rishi Sunak bringing austerity back to public services?
✂️
A thread…🧵1/
“There's absolutely no way in which anyone can say that's austerity, we're spending more money on public services than we were," Sunak said last November...2/