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More from @IsraelexLive

Israeli Elections Live Results

@IsraelexLive

25 Mar

With the CEC actively tallying the absentee ballots for #Israelex4, let's talk a bit about how the results might change.

The first thing to realize is that nobody knows how the absentee ballots will lean, because this year they include COVID patients and citizens voting in the airport on their way into the country and other demographically ambiguous groupings.

All we know is that there are more of them. You'll see media outlets claim that the absentee ballots this time are worth 11 or even 13 seats.

This is true but misleading: no one party will get 100% of the absentee ballots.

Read 16 tweets

Israeli Elections Live Results

@IsraelexLive

24 Mar

https://twitter.com/IsraelexLive/status/1374627870614634502

So, with what appears to be all of the regular ballots counted, and the CEC about to start on the absentee ballots, where do we stand with #Israelex4?

First, the seat counts:

https://twitter.com/IsraelexLive/status/1374627870614634502

The party closest to the threshold is Ra'am, but it is not even close to being in danger. We would have to count 916,502 absentee ballots without finding a single Ra'am vote for the party to fall, and there just aren't that many.

Ra'am did however benefit from the one party to fall beneath the threshold: The New Economic Party could have had enough votes to receive one seat, but that seat went to Ra'am instead.

Read 9 tweets

Israeli Elections Live Results

@IsraelexLive

24 Mar

#Israelex4 major update: 1,873,416 votes tallied (42.13% of the vote).

Results so far:
Likud 32
Yesh Atid 16
Shas 10
UTJ 9
Yamina 8
Lieberman 8
RZP 7
Blue & White 7
New Hope 6
Labor 6
Joint List 6
Meretz 5

Ra'am has fallen below the threshold!

Ra'am is at 3.24% of the vote, less than 300 votes below the threshold (which stands at 60525 votes).

elections24.dicta.org.il is now no longer predicting that Ra'am will be in the Knesset.

Right now Ra'am's lost seats go to the Likud (2), Yamina, and Sa'ar (1 each).

If we stopped counting votes now, this would be the most damaging fall below the threshold in Israel's history. ALL FOUR SEATS went to right-wing parties. We have never seen a bloc lose more than two.

Read 5 tweets

Israeli Elections Live Results

@IsraelexLive

23 Mar

In advance of reporting on the #Israelex4 results tonight, here's a thread of frequently asked questions that I get every election. I will be adding to it periodically over the course of the day.

Q: Why don't you cover exit polls?
A: Exit polls in any election are problematic; it's well known they are usually less accurate than the final pre-election polls (though Israel's polling moratorium law mitigates that somewhat).

But this cycle's exit polls will be even less useful than usual. Thanks to the pandemic, the CEC set up extra ballot boxes to prevent crowding and infection.

So I will be particularly insistent on ignoring them this time around.

Read 22 tweets

Israeli Elections Live Results

@IsraelexLive

4 Feb

https://twitter.com/BittonRosen/status/1357421054545780736

Whoa! The Jewish Home is NOT RUNNING in the election at all! Officially supporting Naftali Bennett's Yamina. I did not expect this.

https://twitter.com/BittonRosen/status/1357421054545780736

This is the first time in history that the Jewish Home, previously the Mafdal, previously Mizrachi, is not running in the election. It's the first time the letter ב has been freed up. This is the end of an era.

https://twitter.com/kalpiot/status/1357421895587680265

Or not: Apparently the Jewish Home is giving Yamina permission to use the letter ב instead of the letter י that it chose, under the condition that the letter ב will revert to the Jewish Home's ownership next election.