$TSLA Q1 deliveries in 🇪🇺:

Most data points towards "ok" quarter:
🔹Ship tracker
🔹Deliveries trackers by country
🔹National $TSLA sites
🔹my own #SGF reports

But this "ok" quarter seems to come at a cost of unsustainable one-offs. Not to mention

🔹Price cuts

Thread:
Ship tracker:

Bulls claim "record" 10 ships to 🇪🇺, beating 9 for Q4 2020 and 7 for Q4 2019.

This may lead to a record in UK, which got RHD supply from 3 boats from Shanghai, in answer to *new* BEV incentives.

But rest of 🇪🇺 had to do with 7 ships vs 9 last Q (7 SFO + 2 SHG).
National delivery trackers:

NL+NO+SP seems more in line with Q1 or Q3 2020.
Far cry from Q4 2019 or Q4 2020.

Country $TSLA delivery data shows "ok" JAN+FEB, but declining market share. And definitely worse product mix as S and X have become negligible.
Perhaps $TSLA website is more revealing this Q:

As boats got unloaded, $TSLA hid 2020 inventory to get prioritize orders at full price.

This came at a cost:
🔹Q3 2020 inventory is now discounted at 6-15%,
🔹Q4 2021 inventory discounted up to 6%

Hundreds of cars left in 🇪🇺 !
Not all 2021 M3 arrivals found buyers, some are now already discounted 1%!

Odometers of inventory "demonstration model" cars show hundreds of cars being test-driven. But conversion into orders seems to be low.
Rumor is that $TSLA is gaming the German incentives, by offering a 2021 model for same price as they offer to buy back 6-month old M3.

Presumably the "used" car gets offered again, perhaps with EAP or FSD which has 0 cost.

Hat tip: @leoappeared

Such "tricks" are one-offs and can backfire by saturating the used market.

$TSLA now fully depends on selling FSD and newly introduced EAP to offset price erosion.

S and X refresh not available for 2 quarters and will be "too little too late".
The hope must be that Brandenburg-made Y will be available by September, and that M3 owners will upgrade.

Plenty of evidence that S and X owners downgraded to M3. Upgrades from M3 to Y much less likely.
My monthly 🇨🇭 update may be later than usual as data may come out only after Easter.

An across-the-board price cut before end of March seems required to clear inventory though.

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More from @CallerNaked

7 Mar
Elon tweets about FSD not simply to pump the stock.

Seems like with all those recent price cuts, FSD makes the difference between selling 2020 inventory at a profit of a loss, both in case of new or used car.

Let's look at just one particular *used* VIN in 🇨🇭 : Image
There are still 17 used M3 on offer in 🇨🇭, and 6 of them are loaded with FSD. In early February that FSD option was basically valued at zero.

At same time only 2 new inventory car had FSD option, see earlier tweet

By Feb 15th *none* of the 120 new inventory M3 had FSD.

The option reappeared couple of days later, and as of this moment 36 of the 166 listed cars have FSD option!

Before only P specs had FSD. Now 12P, 24 AWD and even 1 SR+ have it.
Read 6 tweets
19 Aug 20
Finally some life springing back to the EU $TSLA Q3 delivery scene!

Inventory had been emptied out by end of Q2 and the first RORO unloaded only 2 weeks ago, so we could not really expect much before.

Will it be business as usual for rest of Q3?

Thread 1/14
Most inventory for new cars shown on 14 Tesla EU sites still says "in transit". Far fewer cars have a city "site" label attached to them.

For example in CH about 30 M3 (out of 100+) are attached to either Zurich or Geneva. 8 out of 13 S and 5 out of 15 X also "on site".

2/14
Geneva showroom showing only one 3 and one X. Expect S to be added soon, because why not with all that inventory?

In Q2 as M3 got delivered used S and X were added to Tesla website offer. Remember how they liquidated them by dropping price on those *every day*.

3/14
Read 14 tweets
7 Jul 20
Dear $TSLAQ please take your eyes off the stock price and back onto the one single item that matters rn:

CASH ON HAND!

Even if we have no direct reading we can infer qualitatively from the delivery report, current inventory levels and regional disparities in that inventory.
As @fly4dat has extensively reported, EU Q2 deliveries were weak.
China +/- as expected.

US stronger than even @TroyTeslike expected but then @Paul91701736 gives us proof of inventory in US.
As I reported before $TSLA dropped prices on used cars in its inventory to liquidate by EOQ. Needed that cash!

Today, between D, FR and CH, $TSLA lists a total of *7* available cars, all of them used. That is nothing. No new models, only used cars.
Read 10 tweets
25 Jan 20
Various tweets and PR by $WDI management increases my confidence in the "muddle through" scenario:

🔹Admit that "bad things" happened,
🔹but impact was not "material"
🔹and "it will not happen again".

Just yesterday MB officially started this narrative.
"Some market requirement" means that BAFIN and retail investor pressure is finally forcing some change.

Last Wednesday Eichelmann seemed to allow for "wrongdoing", but that it would not be "material", allowing MB to stay.
I can now refine previous scenario:



🔹BAFIN role will be kept hidden while
🔹Eichelmann will take credit for forcing change,
🔹acting as supervisor of MB, much like Robyn Denholm is supposed to supervise @elonmusk
Read 6 tweets
2 Jan 19
Accompanying Teslemmings to TSLAQ enlightenment - long thread.

I used to be a moderate Tesla bull. Quite involved - selling short puts from 2014 onwards and offering myself a S85D in 2015 - but not very informed until about early 2016.

1/21
By 2017 I had turned full bear - again quite involved what with naked call writing - on the basis of more specialized information.

What changed was not so much the information but my need to assign different levels of confidence to very disparate sources of information.
Some would say I had become biased. I believe I had become "woke", like a Teslemming waking from a geek daydream.
TSLAQ team likes to think of themselves as quite "woke" compared to TSLA permabulls and EM shills. Fair enough. But was I not "woke" back in 2015 as a TSLA bull?
Read 22 tweets

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