It's interesting to see Biden underperforming by almost 2% in Wisconsin, relative to underlying factors and the national environment. He should have won it by close to the amount he won Michigan by, but he didn't actually improve by as much as expected in the WOW counties
Interestingly, it's not as if Biden massively overperformed in the Wisconsin rurals, despite seeing almost no change from 2016 margins; the demographics of that area make it more friendly than not to Democrats (comparatively speaking).
What I wonder about is if WOW sees another massive snap left at some point soon. The GOP there is much stronger and much more energized than they are in many other suburban strongholds, but the evidence we see suggests that the red firewall is still beginning to crack, if slowly.
Waukesha snapping left by only 6 points suggests a pretty sharp lag in comparison to how other white suburban areas voted; Collin/Denton swung left by a hell of a lot more, for example. How long do these areas partially resist national trends in partisanship?
and yeah, as for that WaPo/ABC Biden +17 poll: f**k off

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More from @lxeagle17

22 Mar
We keep saying Democrats have a "lot of room to fall in the rurals", but I'm actually not sure the floor is as low as people think.

There's a pretty consistent Biden overperformance in Appalachia (2.6% in Kentucky, 2.4% in West Virginia), and it's worth examining in more detail. Image
It's interesting because as @JMilesColeman has noted, there's a lot of evidence that Biden managed to stem the bleeding there in this election. In fact, western NC swung *left* from 2016.

Is it something I expect to hold? I don't know, but I'm actually not dismissing it now.
Essentially, we're all saying that "Democrats have more room to fall in ____", but...there's a pretty consistent overperformance across that stretch of Appalachia by Biden in 2020, and it may hint that Democrats are hitting their floors there earlier (and higher) than we'd expect
Read 4 tweets
21 Mar
A roughly 3% underperformance in Durham, 1% underperformance in Wake/Mecklenberg, and an absolutely *awful* performance in Eastern NC.

But even w/ that, Biden only underperformed by about 0.75% in NC, partially because of his strength in the West...so now what?
I'll let @stewroel's *excellent* thread speak more about this, but Democrats have got to start overperforming in North Carolina metros and suburbs like they did in Georgia. If NC Dems overperformed like GA Dems did (GA: +1.90), Democrats would have won NC.
The problem is that the NC metros have proven stubbornly resistant to change on the scale that the Georgia metros have exhibited. It could break soon, of course; different areas swing at different rates, but it'll require a fair bit of smart investment in the state
Read 7 tweets
20 Mar
If us Indian Americans are trying to "assimilate and get ahead", we're probably not doing a very good job of it considering that people in my Bay Area neighborhood literally harassed and yelled at us to "keep a low profile" when we moved in here a decade ago.
Trust me, I would like nothing more than to be viewed as just an American by everyone else, but I'm under no pretenses about that when someone in 5th grade got up when I sat down and say "aw hell nah, I ain't sitting next to an Indian!"
I am very, very fortunate to be in the Bay Area, where shit like this happens very rarely, but I don't think I could ever make it in a lot of red states. And to be clear, I'm not equating the (rather rare) instances of racism that we face to the struggles of other communities.
Read 4 tweets
18 Mar
It is a bad idea to seat Rita Hart in #IA02 if there is no clear and convincing evidence supporting the unseating of Miller-Meeks. But comparisons to 1985 don't work; firstly, it won't be something to unite the GOP, and secondly, swing voters won't be basing their vote off this.
The entire GOP has spent months yelling about election fraud etc, so the argument that the Democrats are the ones doing it doesn't hold water with most people. Because many have no idea what the hell #IA02 is, and even fewer care. But they all saw January 6th.
So essentially, I'm not convinced that this is something that will "kill the Democrats with swing voters", making the optics *electorally* untenable -- the larger problem is in the precedents it sets and the ethical issues arising if this is done unfairly...
Read 4 tweets
7 Mar
Hey all! I'm uncomfortable with my own model right now, because I think, after a lot of debugging and analysis, that it overfits *quite a bit* in areas like Zapata (in TX).

I'm not comfortable leaving it up till I fix it, so I'll spend some time doing so. Taking it down for now
While I really enjoy doing analysis, one thing I absolutely cannot and will not do is leave out something that I think may be off or wrong in any way, shape, or form.

If it overfits that much in Zapata, why would it not overfit elsewhere?
I'm absolutely and completely uncomfortable leaving it up if that's the case. A fix for this is something that I need to figure out (thanks @rainbow_jeremy_ for the catch). Demographic change alone shouldn't explain it. So perhaps the model is just overfitting.
Read 8 tweets
6 Mar
Cal Cunningham would not have won even if he kept his zipper up.

Biden didn't win the state and shouldn't have, based on the national environment, and in an inelastic state like NC, expecting the senate candidate to run >1.5% of Biden in an open seat is just unrealistic.
Biden only did 0.4% below average in NC. It's not as if he had some shocking underperformance there! He would still have lost by around a percent if everything went to plan in the state and it went exactly according to the national environment.
So why would we expect the downballot candidate to outrun Biden by a percent against a sitting incumbent? That's a tall ask for any normal candidate anyways.

Cunningham isn't great, but that's not why we lost the seat.
Read 5 tweets

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