It is a bad idea to seat Rita Hart in #IA02 if there is no clear and convincing evidence supporting the unseating of Miller-Meeks. But comparisons to 1985 don't work; firstly, it won't be something to unite the GOP, and secondly, swing voters won't be basing their vote off this.
The entire GOP has spent months yelling about election fraud etc, so the argument that the Democrats are the ones doing it doesn't hold water with most people. Because many have no idea what the hell #IA02 is, and even fewer care. But they all saw January 6th.
So essentially, I'm not convinced that this is something that will "kill the Democrats with swing voters", making the optics *electorally* untenable -- the larger problem is in the precedents it sets and the ethical issues arising if this is done unfairly...
But the Democratic majority is razor-thin as is. They won't have the votes to seat Hart, as I understand it, unless there's something that makes it crystal clear that Hart won in the final count, in which case she should be rightfully seated.
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Hey all! I'm uncomfortable with my own model right now, because I think, after a lot of debugging and analysis, that it overfits *quite a bit* in areas like Zapata (in TX).
I'm not comfortable leaving it up till I fix it, so I'll spend some time doing so. Taking it down for now
While I really enjoy doing analysis, one thing I absolutely cannot and will not do is leave out something that I think may be off or wrong in any way, shape, or form.
If it overfits that much in Zapata, why would it not overfit elsewhere?
I'm absolutely and completely uncomfortable leaving it up if that's the case. A fix for this is something that I need to figure out (thanks @rainbow_jeremy_ for the catch). Demographic change alone shouldn't explain it. So perhaps the model is just overfitting.
Cal Cunningham would not have won even if he kept his zipper up.
Biden didn't win the state and shouldn't have, based on the national environment, and in an inelastic state like NC, expecting the senate candidate to run >1.5% of Biden in an open seat is just unrealistic.
Biden only did 0.4% below average in NC. It's not as if he had some shocking underperformance there! He would still have lost by around a percent if everything went to plan in the state and it went exactly according to the national environment.
So why would we expect the downballot candidate to outrun Biden by a percent against a sitting incumbent? That's a tall ask for any normal candidate anyways.
Cunningham isn't great, but that's not why we lost the seat.
Ran a model on the South -- the map below shows the partisan performance by county *relative to what was expected given the 2020 environment* when using race, religion, education, and 2016 partisanship as underlying variables.
The Florida-Georgia contrast is striking.
Florida is a complete disaster. Democrats underperformed in Broward by 4.5%, Palm Beach by 5.1%, and Miami-Dade by 13.2%. Nowhere did they exceed the modeled swing by more than 3.3%.
Doesn't matter if the opponent is Trump, DeSantis, or Rubio. If this is how you do, you're toast
"Well, Hispanics swung right everywhere! The national environment we were dealing with was way different from what was expected!"
No. *Even accounting for all that*, Democrats absolutely collapsed in Florida this year and were below replacement level. There is no defending this.
Ossoff outran Abrams in the vast majority of counties and unseated a popular incumbent in a race nobody wanted to initially even contest, whereas Abrams couldn't win an open seat.
Abrams lost Georgia by 2 points in a blue wave and she should have won that race.
I have nothing but respect for her work fighting voter suppression and I immensely appreciate the effort of organizers, but stop pretending Abrams was some electoral goddess. There is nothing to suggest anything of the kind and a lot that suggests she underperformed in 2018.
Created a regression model to analyze 2016->2020 swing based on demographics. Much of the swing in South Texas can actually be explained with education, race, urbanization, and religion when analyzing the Sunbelt.
But even then, there was still a definite underperformance there.
Blue means the area swung more towards Biden than expected given demographics. Red means the area swung more towards Trump than expected based on demographics.
Now, a bit of analysis...and what happened is far more complex than anyone wants to believe. There's no easy answer.
To my eye, the populous centers in South Texas would have seen a pretty big swing right either way. Hidalgo and Webb should have swung 17 points right instead of the 23 and 28 point margin.
So there should have been a big swing right. But a swing of this magnitude? Maybe not.
Again, Joe Manchin’s value over replacement is insane. Look at the gap between him and Capito in terms of voting with Democrats and realize that without Manchin, we’re praying Biden can just confirm a cabinet.
Sinema is a bit more annoying for me, but she was elected when AZ was flipping from red to blue and had to appeal to a whole ton of folks across the partisan spectrum. And she hasn’t actually broken with Democrats on any vote of consequence.