📣 NEW: Time to check in on how the #COVID19 Special Enrollment Period is going...
acasignups.net/21/03/24/time-…
As @selenasd just noted, and @KrutikaAmin reiterated, the only *official* COVID SEP enrollment tally from HCgov is 206K as of 2/28...plus scattershot data from a handful of state-based ACA exchanges.

My estimates suggest the national total was around 260K as of 2/28...
...or an average of ~18.5K per day. *IF* that pace has held true since 2/28, the national tally would be around 684,000 as of yesterday.

HOWEVER...since 2/28, the #AmRescuePlan passed the House, the Senate, the House again & was signed by President Biden on 3/12!
On the one hand, the substantially expanded subsidies will almost certainly cause #ACA enrollment to surge over the next month or two...on the other, enrollment may have actually *dropped* as people wait until after April 1st, when the new subsidies are online.
If the 18.5K/day national pace holds for the entire month of March, HealthCare.Gov should report total COVID SEP enrollment of roughly...666,000 people as of 3/31.

If that happens, the headlines will write themselves.

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More from @charles_gaba

24 Mar
Rep. Haroldson is either lying or clueless.
Actually, since Wyoming hasn’t expanded Medicaid, the only way this claim could be true is if the family in question saw their income go over *400* FPL, making them ineligible for ACA subsidies BEFORE the ARP was signed.
If that’s what happened, then:
1. Medicaid expansion is irrelevant to them anyway;
2. They’re the opposite of poverty-stricken;
3. The ARP solves that problem as well.
Read 5 tweets
24 Mar
📣 NEW: Why does the #AmRescuePlan include #COBRA subsidies in the first place?
acasignups.net/21/03/24/why-d…
(NOTE: Earlier I questioned where @MehdirHasan got his $35B figure. That's been answered reasonably, but it also creates a *different* mystery: @USCBO says $22.8B. @JCTGov says $35.0B. Which is right, and why would they differ when they collaborated on the same score??)
Having said that, even w/JCT est. of $35B, @MehdirHasan still claimed it'd only cover "2M people for 6 mo" which would be $17.5K/6 mo or $35K/yr apiece.

Problem? The House version estimated *3M*, not 2, and the *Senate* version would cover FAR MORE people (thus the higher cost).
Read 5 tweets
24 Mar
.@mehdirhasan is a great interviewer and is often dead-on target, but he (like so many others in the news media) MASSIVELY overstated the cost per enrollee of the #AmRescuePlan's COBRA subsidies last night (I'm still working on the post but this is key):
acasignups.net/21/03/24/why-d…
Hasan claimed that the #ARP will spend $35B to cover "around 2 million" COBRA enrollees for 6 months.

$35B / 2.0M = $17,500 apiece. For 6 months.

If true, this would indeed be a massive waste of money, since employer policy premiums average ~$7,500 per *YEAR* per enrollee.
On the upside, claiming COBRA costs $35K/year is a lot better than claiming it costs $80K/year, I suppose. He only overstated the cost by 5.6x instead of 10.6, so I guess that's progress...
acasignups.net/21/03/17/updat…
Read 6 tweets
24 Mar
📣🎉#ACAGoesTo11: #ACA Enrollment is BACK, BIG TIME! Here's *10* important things to remember to help you #GetCovered! acasignups.net/21/03/24/aca-e…
1. MILLIONS NOW QUALIFY FOR #ACA TAX CREDITS IN 2021 & 2022 WHO DIDN'T IN 2020...AND THEY COULD SAVE *THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS*!

In addition, most of those *already* receiving subsidies will receive *additional* financial help!
Here's my explainer about how much various households will save on #ACA premiums at different income levels. Low-income enrollees could pay NOTHING in premiums, & for the first time ever, MIDDLE-CLASS folks will be eligible for financial help! acasignups.net/21/03/14/new-h…
Read 20 tweets
24 Mar
Hoo boy. Again, I’m not a fan of COBRA but there are legitimate reasons for doing it this way in this particular situation.
First, I'm not sure where @MehdirHasan gets $35 billion from. According to the @USCBO score of the final Senate version of the #AmRescuePlan, the gross cost of the #COBRA provision is $37.2 billion (slightly *higher*), but the *net* cost is $22.8 billion:
cbo.gov/publication/57…
Second, the *net amount being spent per COBRA enrollee*, according to the CBO, was around $2,600 apiece under the *House* version *$7.84B / 3.0M) to cover 85% of their premiums. If you ignore savings (why?), the *gross* amount was around $4,800 apiece:
acasignups.net/21/03/17/updat…
Read 13 tweets
23 Mar
📣 BREAKING: @SecBecerra to extend 2021 #COVID19 Enrollment Period deadline thru August 15th:
acasignups.net/21/03/23/break…
Some Guy, June 16, 2020: acasignups.net/20/06/16/vermo…

"At a certain point I'm guessing at least one of the state exchanges will just say "screw it" and open...enrollment up for the full year."
There's 3 main reasons to have a limited-time Open Enrollment Period in the first place:

1. To prevent Adverse Selection...that is, people who "go bare" until they're diagnosed with an illness or get injured. This is why you can't get auto insurance AFTER you crash your car.
Read 5 tweets

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