As @selenasd just noted, and @KrutikaAmin reiterated, the only *official* COVID SEP enrollment tally from HCgov is 206K as of 2/28...plus scattershot data from a handful of state-based ACA exchanges.
My estimates suggest the national total was around 260K as of 2/28...
...or an average of ~18.5K per day. *IF* that pace has held true since 2/28, the national tally would be around 684,000 as of yesterday.
HOWEVER...since 2/28, the #AmRescuePlan passed the House, the Senate, the House again & was signed by President Biden on 3/12!
On the one hand, the substantially expanded subsidies will almost certainly cause #ACA enrollment to surge over the next month or two...on the other, enrollment may have actually *dropped* as people wait until after April 1st, when the new subsidies are online.
If the 18.5K/day national pace holds for the entire month of March, HealthCare.Gov should report total COVID SEP enrollment of roughly...666,000 people as of 3/31.
If that happens, the headlines will write themselves.
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Actually, since Wyoming hasn’t expanded Medicaid, the only way this claim could be true is if the family in question saw their income go over *400* FPL, making them ineligible for ACA subsidies BEFORE the ARP was signed.
If that’s what happened, then: 1. Medicaid expansion is irrelevant to them anyway; 2. They’re the opposite of poverty-stricken; 3. The ARP solves that problem as well.
(NOTE: Earlier I questioned where @MehdirHasan got his $35B figure. That's been answered reasonably, but it also creates a *different* mystery: @USCBO says $22.8B. @JCTGov says $35.0B. Which is right, and why would they differ when they collaborated on the same score??)
Having said that, even w/JCT est. of $35B, @MehdirHasan still claimed it'd only cover "2M people for 6 mo" which would be $17.5K/6 mo or $35K/yr apiece.
Problem? The House version estimated *3M*, not 2, and the *Senate* version would cover FAR MORE people (thus the higher cost).
.@mehdirhasan is a great interviewer and is often dead-on target, but he (like so many others in the news media) MASSIVELY overstated the cost per enrollee of the #AmRescuePlan's COBRA subsidies last night (I'm still working on the post but this is key): acasignups.net/21/03/24/why-d…
Hasan claimed that the #ARP will spend $35B to cover "around 2 million" COBRA enrollees for 6 months.
$35B / 2.0M = $17,500 apiece. For 6 months.
If true, this would indeed be a massive waste of money, since employer policy premiums average ~$7,500 per *YEAR* per enrollee.
On the upside, claiming COBRA costs $35K/year is a lot better than claiming it costs $80K/year, I suppose. He only overstated the cost by 5.6x instead of 10.6, so I guess that's progress... acasignups.net/21/03/17/updat…
1. MILLIONS NOW QUALIFY FOR #ACA TAX CREDITS IN 2021 & 2022 WHO DIDN'T IN 2020...AND THEY COULD SAVE *THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS*!
In addition, most of those *already* receiving subsidies will receive *additional* financial help!
Here's my explainer about how much various households will save on #ACA premiums at different income levels. Low-income enrollees could pay NOTHING in premiums, & for the first time ever, MIDDLE-CLASS folks will be eligible for financial help! acasignups.net/21/03/14/new-h…
First, I'm not sure where @MehdirHasan gets $35 billion from. According to the @USCBO score of the final Senate version of the #AmRescuePlan, the gross cost of the #COBRA provision is $37.2 billion (slightly *higher*), but the *net* cost is $22.8 billion: cbo.gov/publication/57…
Second, the *net amount being spent per COBRA enrollee*, according to the CBO, was around $2,600 apiece under the *House* version *$7.84B / 3.0M) to cover 85% of their premiums. If you ignore savings (why?), the *gross* amount was around $4,800 apiece: acasignups.net/21/03/17/updat…
"At a certain point I'm guessing at least one of the state exchanges will just say "screw it" and open...enrollment up for the full year."
There's 3 main reasons to have a limited-time Open Enrollment Period in the first place:
1. To prevent Adverse Selection...that is, people who "go bare" until they're diagnosed with an illness or get injured. This is why you can't get auto insurance AFTER you crash your car.