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Aaron Derfel

25 Mar, 10 tweets, 4 min read

1) COVID-19 outbreaks involving the more transmissible variants are on the rise in Montreal, while those linked to the older coronavirus strains are decreasing, the latest weekly report by the city’s public health department shows. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…

2) What’s more, authorities have confirmed two cases of a fourth variant in Montreal, B.1.525, which arose in Nigeria and carries some of the same mutations as the B.1.1.7 strain. Previously, there was speculation Montreal might have had a strain from California.

3) On Feb. 12, British Columbia announced one case of B.1.525 associated with travel to Nigeria. This variant has been circulating in New York City, according to the New York Times. I have been unable to find other cases of B.1.525 elsewhere in Canada.

4) Despite the fact that Montreal now has four confirmed variants, B.1.1.7 is by far the main one in the city, with 460 cases. B.1.1.7, which was first detected in the United Kingdom, threatens to soon become the predominant strain in the city.

5) Meanwhile, the number of #COVID19 outbreaks in schools — likely with variants — climbed by 10 to 116 across the province on Wednesday. And the Education Ministry reported that the number of schools that have closed rose by four to 27. Yes, that’s 27 schools closed.

6) In addition, as of 9:40 p.m. Wednesday, five more schools across Quebec announced they had suspected #COVID19 variant cases according to covidecolesquebec.org. Four shuttered classes while the fifth, École international du village in Gatineau, has closed temporarily.

7) Although the total of confirmed variant cases remained at 704, the number of presumptive variant ones jumped by 241 across Quebec. A dozen regions posted presumptive cases, with Montreal reporting the lion’s share, 105.

8) Montreal has remained in what appears to be a #COVID19 plateau for nearly a month, suggesting that the rise of the variants in the city is countering a decline in cases linked to the old wild-type strains of the #coronavirus. Please see the chart below.

9) Montreal on Wednesday added another five fatalities to a #COVID19 death toll of 4,603. Unfortunately, the chart below of the city does not suggest a dramatic tapering off of such deaths.

10) With students in Grades 9, 10 and 11 set to return to class five days a week this coming Monday, one would not be surprised to soon observe an uptick in variant cases in this sector, especially since children and teenagers are not yet eligible for the vaccines. End of thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

26 Mar

1) Breaking: the more transmissible #COVID19 variants are already the predominant strain in some regions of Quebec, according to the province’s public health institute.

2) The reproductive rate of the variants alone in Quebec is 1.31, suggesting that transmission of the more contagious strains is rising.

3) At present, 85% of presumptive variant cases that are genetically sequenced in Quebec turn out to be of the B.1.1.7 strain that originated in the U.K.

Read 4 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

26 Mar

@mtlgazette

1) In my @mtlgazette column tonight, I raise the question as to whether Quebec might be at the start of a third wave, where Ontario finds itself. In this thread, I'll elaborate on this possibility on the eve of Quebec’s loosening of #pandemic restrictions. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…

2) Quebec observed two noticeable hikes Thursday: 945 #COVID19 cases, up from 783 the day before; and 314 new presumptive variant cases, the highest to date. What’s also noteworthy are the increases in regions across the province.

3) The Bas-Saint-Laurent posted 46 #COVID19 infections, up from 11 the previous day. This region also counted five more presumptive variant cases. The Outaouais, which is at risk of returning to red zone status, declared 51 more presumptive variant cases.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

24 Mar

1) Since late last week, the number of Quebec schools that have closed due to #COVID19 — most likely the variants — has jumped by 17 to 23. In this thread, I will assess Premier François Legault’s decision to let high school students in red zones resume full-time classes.

2) In addition to the temporary school closures, 232 more classrooms have been shuttered — for a total of 880, according to the latest chart by the Quebec Education Ministry. And on Tuesday, the number of #COVID19 school outbreaks rose by five to 106.

3) There is nothing to suggest that #COVID19 is subsiding in schools. In fact, as of 9:45 p.m. Tuesday, seven more schools in Quebec announced that they have suspected variant cases, according to the dependable covidecolesquebec.org.

Read 13 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

15 Mar

1) Ten schools and one daycare in the greater Montreal area declared suspected cases of COVID-19 variants over the weekend as the total number of presumptive ones soared across the province. In this thread, I will assess the risks of further easing #pandemic restrictions.

2) On Sunday alone, six schools — including Hebrew Academy in Côte-St-Luc and École Lucille-Teasdale in densely populated Côte-des-Neiges — identified what are likely B.1.1.7 variant cases. Evidence is mounting that schools have become breeding grounds for the variants.

3) According to the assiduous record-keeping by Olivier Drouin of covidecolesquebec.org, 62 schools to date across Quebec have shut down temporarily or shuttered their classes because of exposure to the more transmissible variants.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

14 Mar

1) As thousands of Montrealers took to the streets in a noisy demonstration Saturday afternoon against #pandemic restrictions, more evidence emerged of the spread of presumptive cases of #COVID19 variants across Quebec. Please click on my column below. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…

2) As I note in the Gazette column, presumptive variant #COVID19 cases are beginning to rise sharply in Laval and the Laurentians. The Capitale-Nationale and the Montérégie are also recording new cases, but the exact location for 114 is not known. Please see the chart below.

3) Yet despite the proliferation of the variants, thousands of protesters (many of whom were anti-maskers) marched along Sherbrooke St. near Premier François Legault’s Montreal offices, then zigzagged through other streets, disrupting bus lines.

Read 8 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

13 Mar

1) Montreal crossed another grim milestone in the pandemic Friday, with authorities confirming the city now has cases of all three of the more transmissible #COVID19 variants of concern. So what does this mean for the city? Please click on my column below. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…

@MatthewOughton

2) As Dr. @MatthewOughton told me this afternoon, Montreal finds itself in a paradox at this point in time: facing a proliferation of the B.1.1.7 variant that was first detected in England, yet recording a drop in #COVID19 cases and hospitalizations since last month.

3) As the chart below reveals, 14 regions across Quebec are now grappling with presumptive variant cases, up from 13 from the day before. These cases will turn out to be any of the three variants: B.1.1.7; B.1.351 (originating in South Africa) or P.1 (sweeping Brazil).

Read 8 tweets

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