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Aaron Derfel Profile picture
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26 Mar, 4 tweets, 1 min read
1) Breaking: the more transmissible #COVID19 variants are already the predominant strain in some regions of Quebec, according to the province’s public health institute.
2) The reproductive rate of the variants alone in Quebec is 1.31, suggesting that transmission of the more contagious strains is rising.
3) At present, 85% of presumptive variant cases that are genetically sequenced in Quebec turn out to be of the B.1.1.7 strain that originated in the U.K.
4) “Yes, it’s very worrisome,” INSPQ epidemiologist Gaston De Serres said of the latest variant trends in Quebec. My story in the @mtlgazette to come soon, plus my Twitter thread tonight. End of mini thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aaron Derfel Profile picture
28 Mar
1) Two surveys were released this week showing Quebecers’ growing frustration with public health measures in the #pandemic, just as the province confronts a third wave driven by the more contagious variants. In this thread, I will delve into the implications of this weariness.
2) A survey by Quebec’s public health institute found that 57% of Quebecers would find it “very difficult” to cope with #pandemic measures for another six months, up from 55% two weeks ago. And a CROP survey found mounting resentment toward restrictions. Image
3) Premier François Legault suggested Friday he was open to reversing some of his latest loosening of restrictions. But he added: “We need to have a balance if we want the population to follow the measures we put in place. If we’re too strong, too hard, we may lose everybody.”
Read 14 tweets
Aaron Derfel Profile picture
27 Mar
1) Premier François Legault flip-flopped Friday, acknowledging Quebec is in the “beginning of a third wave” in the #pandemic only three days after insisting the opposite. Unlike previous waves, more contagious variants of the #coronavirus are to blame here and across Canada.
2) For much of the #pandemic, British Columbia has managed to keep transmission of the #coronavirus relatively low. But on Friday, B.C. authorities confirmed 215 cases of the P.1 variant, the same strain that is causing massive deaths in Brazil. Quebec so far has one P.1 case. Image
3) Meanwhile, Ontario on Friday declared it has 58 cases of P.1, up by four from the previous day. In total, Ontario has 1,612 confirmed variant infections, more than double the tally in Quebec. And like B.C., #COVID19 hospitalizations in Ontario are on the upswing. See below. Image
Read 10 tweets
Aaron Derfel Profile picture
26 Mar
1) In my @mtlgazette column tonight, I raise the question as to whether Quebec might be at the start of a third wave, where Ontario finds itself. In this thread, I'll elaborate on this possibility on the eve of Quebec’s loosening of #pandemic restrictions. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) Quebec observed two noticeable hikes Thursday: 945 #COVID19 cases, up from 783 the day before; and 314 new presumptive variant cases, the highest to date. What’s also noteworthy are the increases in regions across the province.
3) The Bas-Saint-Laurent posted 46 #COVID19 infections, up from 11 the previous day. This region also counted five more presumptive variant cases. The Outaouais, which is at risk of returning to red zone status, declared 51 more presumptive variant cases.
Read 10 tweets
Aaron Derfel Profile picture
25 Mar
1) COVID-19 outbreaks involving the more transmissible variants are on the rise in Montreal, while those linked to the older coronavirus strains are decreasing, the latest weekly report by the city’s public health department shows. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) What’s more, authorities have confirmed two cases of a fourth variant in Montreal, B.1.525, which arose in Nigeria and carries some of the same mutations as the B.1.1.7 strain. Previously, there was speculation Montreal might have had a strain from California.
3) On Feb. 12, British Columbia announced one case of B.1.525 associated with travel to Nigeria. This variant has been circulating in New York City, according to the New York Times. I have been unable to find other cases of B.1.525 elsewhere in Canada.
Read 10 tweets
Aaron Derfel Profile picture
24 Mar
1) Since late last week, the number of Quebec schools that have closed due to #COVID19 — most likely the variants — has jumped by 17 to 23. In this thread, I will assess Premier François Legault’s decision to let high school students in red zones resume full-time classes. Image
2) In addition to the temporary school closures, 232 more classrooms have been shuttered — for a total of 880, according to the latest chart by the Quebec Education Ministry. And on Tuesday, the number of #COVID19 school outbreaks rose by five to 106. Image
3) There is nothing to suggest that #COVID19 is subsiding in schools. In fact, as of 9:45 p.m. Tuesday, seven more schools in Quebec announced that they have suspected variant cases, according to the dependable covidecolesquebec.org. Image
Read 13 tweets
Aaron Derfel Profile picture
15 Mar
1) Ten schools and one daycare in the greater Montreal area declared suspected cases of COVID-19 variants over the weekend as the total number of presumptive ones soared across the province. In this thread, I will assess the risks of further easing #pandemic restrictions.
2) On Sunday alone, six schools — including Hebrew Academy in Côte-St-Luc and École Lucille-Teasdale in densely populated Côte-des-Neiges — identified what are likely B.1.1.7 variant cases. Evidence is mounting that schools have become breeding grounds for the variants.
3) According to the assiduous record-keeping by Olivier Drouin of covidecolesquebec.org, 62 schools to date across Quebec have shut down temporarily or shuttered their classes because of exposure to the more transmissible variants.
Read 10 tweets

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