1) Montreal crossed another grim milestone in the pandemic Friday, with authorities confirming the city now has cases of all three of the more transmissible #COVID19 variants of concern. So what does this mean for the city? Please click on my column below. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) As Dr. @MatthewOughton told me this afternoon, Montreal finds itself in a paradox at this point in time: facing a proliferation of the B.1.1.7 variant that was first detected in England, yet recording a drop in #COVID19 cases and hospitalizations since last month.
3) As the chart below reveals, 14 regions across Quebec are now grappling with presumptive variant cases, up from 13 from the day before. These cases will turn out to be any of the three variants: B.1.1.7; B.1.351 (originating in South Africa) or P.1 (sweeping Brazil).
4) In all likelihood, most of the 1,847 presumptive variant cases will be genetically sequenced as B.1.1.7, followed by a cluster of B.1.351 in Abitibi-Témiscamingue. The B.1.1.7 strain is at least 50% more transmissible and 30% more lethal. B.1.351 is more resistant to vaccines.
5) Montreal was the epicentre of the #pandemic during the first and second waves, and it’s also now the hot spot for variants, with a combined total of 1,082 confirmed and presumptive cases. Given the greater transmissibility of B.1.1.7, Montreal should not relax restrictions.
6) Yet on Monday, after-school sports will resume in the red zone of Montreal, and gyms will be able to reopen on March 26, plus spas and indoor hotel pools over the next few weeks. On Friday, the city posted 360 #COVID19 cases, up from 341 the day before. See the chart below.
7) Ontario has thus far recorded nearly four times as many confirmed and presumptive variant cases than Montreal. Is it a coincidence that Ontario is now observing an uptick in #COVID19 infections? Please take a look at the chart below.
8) At present, just 7.6% of Quebec's population has been administered mostly first doses of the vaccines against #COVID19. In light of this fact, perhaps the government should reconsider loosening restrictions in the coming days. End of thread. Please limit your social contacts.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

14 Mar
1) As thousands of Montrealers took to the streets in a noisy demonstration Saturday afternoon against #pandemic restrictions, more evidence emerged of the spread of presumptive cases of #COVID19 variants across Quebec. Please click on my column below. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) As I note in the Gazette column, presumptive variant #COVID19 cases are beginning to rise sharply in Laval and the Laurentians. The Capitale-Nationale and the Montérégie are also recording new cases, but the exact location for 114 is not known. Please see the chart below. Image
3) Yet despite the proliferation of the variants, thousands of protesters (many of whom were anti-maskers) marched along Sherbrooke St. near Premier François Legault’s Montreal offices, then zigzagged through other streets, disrupting bus lines.
Read 8 tweets
12 Mar
1) More transmissible #COVID19 cases have now spread all over Quebec to an extent that was not known previously by the public, according to a newly released chart by Quebec’s health institute. Please click on my updated story below. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) The latest data by the Institut national de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ) also reveal the region of Abitibi-Témiscamingue has more than double the number of confirmed cases of the B.1.351 variant as all of Ontario, 95 to 41.
3) This is worrisome for several reasons. For much of the #pandemic, Abitibi-Témiscamingue had been spared the ravages of #COVID19. In addition to confirmed cases of B.1.351, the region has another 56 presumptive cases, likely of the strain that arose in South Africa.
Read 8 tweets
11 Mar
1) Quebec declared for the first time Wednesday it has one case of the P.1 variant that’s been sweeping through Brazil, and revealed the number of cases of the B.1.351 strain from South Africa jumped by 54 to 94 in Abitibi-Temiscamingue. Please see below. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) Quebec may now be at another turning point in the #pandemic, with confirmation of the three variants of concern, as well as a strain from California. Still, it’s too early to tellwhether Wednesday’s uptick in #COVID19 cases and hospitalizations are due to the variants.
3) What we do know, though, is that the B.1.1.7 variant now comprises 20% of new #COVID19 cases in Montreal, up from about 15% since last week. And this increase has coincided with a rise in the number of outbreaks in the workplace. Please see the chart below.
Read 8 tweets
10 Mar
1) Montreal authorities are alarmed by a sharp rise in cases of the B.1.1.7 variant in densely populated neighborhoods, where the positivity rate in the screening of COVID-19 samples has soared to as high as 25 per cent. Click on the link below. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) The chart below appears to show that Montreal has flattened the second wave in the #pandemic, thanks to public health restrictions and a #COVID19 vaccination blitz. This, of course, is truly welcome news, but the chart belies the lurking variants.
3) As I reported in my column in the @mtlgazette tonight, the variants are no longer proliferating in schools but in densely populated neighborhoods, too. Although authorities are quick to close schools with variant cases, what’s their plan for Montreal’s neighborhoods?
Read 9 tweets
9 Mar
1) Ontario’s associate chief medical officer warned Monday the province is recording “quite a significant increase” in the number of #COVID19 cases screening positive for the more contagious variants of concern. In this thread, I will examine what this might mean for Quebec.
2) But first, let me turn to Quebec’s latest figures on #COVID19 variant cases. The province reported on Monday a cumulative total of 255 confirmed variant cases, up by 61, and 1,732 presumptive cases, up by 32 from Sunday. Please see the chart below.
3) What’s noteworthy beyond the general increase is that the Capitale-Nationale region confirmed two B.1.1.7 cases for the first time, as did the Montérégie. Also for the first time, Lanudière confirmed a B.1.351 case.
Read 10 tweets
8 Mar
1) As Quebec ramps up #COVID19 vaccinations and is likely to surpass its goal of inoculating 650,000 people by the end of March, it’s now facing what is known as the “Peltzman Effect” — lowering one’s guard in a risky situation. Ironically, this is mostly due to the vaccines.
2) University of Chicago economist Sam Peltzman first described this phenomenon in 1975 in which people adopt riskier behavior in response to visible safety measures like widespread vaccination. Credit goes to physician-scientist @EricTopol for tweeting about this recently.
3) Evidence is emerging of the Peltzman Effect in Quebec. On Saturday night, provincial and municipal police broke up an illegal gathering in a ski resort near Quebec City, fining 36 partygoers a total of $54,800. montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/il…
Read 10 tweets

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