So last night I ended up testifying to a national legislature about the potential health effects of radiofrequency radiation and 5G. And things went chaotic quickly🥴 - a little thread story about the joys of dealing with the more 'fringe' elements... (1/n)
So firstly, scientific consensus is overwhelming that radiofrequency light like 5G is not dangerous. I've written on why before, but at public events like this, there's always some activist fringe groups - question is how out of hand will it get? 2/n blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/d…
After formal preamble, health effects sections starts well enough, with a good talk outlining why the scientific consensus is what it is. But then, the more outlandish take the floor - including one very well-known fringe group, who don't particularly like me alas.. (3/n)
Now I'm really not precious about titles, but I've noticed when dealing with pseudoscientists they're very keen to demote me to "Mr Grimes" or just "Grimes" - like clockwork, this one immediately does both. All her chosen experts are PhD, I'm now just Elon Musk's ladyfriend 4/n
She continues, I'll paraphrase: "All world expert bodies are lying or incompetent, but her fringe sources have it all figured out. Everyone else is a big telecom shill - Especially YOU. WiFi is killing trees, frying kids, and causing whatever you're having yourself" 5/n
At one point, there's a scary picture of apparent 5G damage at 900Mhz. The reality that's not within a country mile of 5G but actually corresponds to the frequency Walkie talkies operate at doesn't impede her one bit - I almost admire how impervious she is to facts 6/n
Next, brief interlude for someone's written testimony: 5G was invented in 1970s China, smuggled to the USA with Trump to cause COVID. Something about @BillGates too, I zoned out. The record keeper had to read this with a straight face, for which she deserves an award 7/n
Here's another guy, an epidemiologist who's never heard of Bradford Hill criteria or even apparently the concept of causality, because he puts *this* graph up to say "cell phones reduce pay because the 1980s". Oh, and he *promises* they cause cancer. Spoiler: They don't. 8/n
I'm last up - there's been so much ranting that I make a concerted effort to stay to time, pointing out scientific consensus, where misconceptions occur, and why. I also refute others claims, & point to the conspiracy narrative inherent in much of the testimony is telling 9/10
Suddenly, an anti-5G activist calls me a "fucking idiot" (I don't dispute this tbh) -a senator mishears it, thinks it aimed at her, & a ruckus ensues before the chair sheepishly clarifies I was the target, & footage will be reviewed to see who said it. I just shrug & laugh 10/n
A senator demands to know if I'm familiar w/ a professor they're quoting on 5G danger. I say sure - he's a business professor, about as qualified to comment on radiobiology as I am to opine on investment portfolios. This doesn't go down well, please dont ask me about stocks 11/n
The 5G activists, however, have began flood posting the teams chat of the call, accusing me of being in the pocket of big telecom. They demand to know who's paying me (no one) - here's my impression of "big telecom" btw, for the record 12/n
By now it's all gotten a bit chaotic - the poor chair and his team are having to police the testifiers. I'm well used to it, so I zone out and pour a whiskey. It is, after all 3am. I feel bad, because chair's team feel they need to apologise to me for other people's issues 13/n
The absolute best one was that they shared this MAD conspiracy theory in the chat: That because I got CRUK funding... I must be in cahoots with... some dude? Btw, the actual paper I thanked NVIDIA on is... one simulating cancer stuff (h/t @dbasanta) 14/n nature.com/articles/s4141…
Long story short, by the time it was over it was 4am by time, and I was wide awake. Even though I *know* what these groups are like, it's always bizarre to watch their carry-on - there is no reasoning with them alas. But there is a good ending to this story of sorts 15/n
..these folks thrive on fringe papers, & I recognised some they used as ones @jamesheathers & I had submitted detailed complaints about last year. After the call I checked - and found the one claiming RF caused ADHD just got retracted. About time 16/n jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…
Anyway, there's about another 8 in that pile we'll get retracted for data fakery & bad science yet, but I haven't slept yet so I'm going to bed. Moral of the story: scientific consensus views >> fringe narratives, no matter how passionately they're held! 17/17, n =17
Postscript: A surprising amount of fringe folks have PhDs or MDs. But the only authority a scientist ever has is dependent on them reflecting the evidence base: if they embrace fringe positions then qualification, education, and prestige mean zero: they're not doing science.
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There's widespread confusion over false results in both #COVID19 tests and #cervicalcheck. Medical testing can be deeply counterintuitive: A HIV test is 99.99% accurate, yet for most of us, a positive test is only 50% likely to imply HIV - is it clear why?
..confusion is understandable; first we need to understand three key ideas in testing. The first is SENSITIVITY: This is how likely a test is to correctly identify a disease if you have it. A sensitivity of 90%, for example, means that the test catches 9/10 cases (2/n)
..the second idea is SPEICIFICTY: How likely a test is to give you a clear if you don't have the condition. A specificity of 95% means, for example, that if you have a totally healthy group, the test will still tell you 5% have the disease when they don't (3/n)
Short thread: The chair of the Society of Homeopaths is spreading anti-vaccine propaganda. But that really shouldn't surprise anyone. Here's why, and why pseudoscience is far from harmless (1/n) dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7…
Homeopathy is a long discredited pseudoscience, rooted in both medically debunked vitalism, its central "like-cures-like" / "extreme dilutions make effects stronger" tenets easily disproved by basic physics. I've been harping on about it too long! (2/n) onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111….
..now, in effect, when you buy homeopathy products, you are effectively buying inert sugar pills. But, some argue, what's the harm? I mean, if it makes you feel better, than what's the big deal? They may even mention the extraordinary power of the placebo effect (3/n)
Ah no - James Randi has died, aged 92. Sad, but a hell of a life - from touring with @alicecooper to besting Houdini, & exposing fraud. This elven man cast a long shadow - my favourite Randi story is how he got a Nature paper (!) (1/n) nytimes.com/2020/10/21/obi…
In 1988, immunologist Jacques Benveniste made an huge claim: homeopathy, long thought physically impossible, was real. If so, everything we knew about physical science would have to be rewritten. The seemingly strong result was a dilemma for editor of @nature, John Maddox (2/n)
Maddox decided to publish the paper, with an unusual caveat - that it would be independently validated by a group of special investigators. A team skilled at detecting fraud and self-delusion. And crucial to this mix? James Randi, as I write in "The Irrational Ape"... (3/n)
Hi @JuliaHB1 - your claim here is highly misleading, and misunderstands #CovidTesting. I'll try explain why: firstly, the sensitivity of PCR #COVID19 test is ~98%, specificity 98.9%. Now, false positives & negative rates depend on prevalence of COVID in test population... (1/n)
...we can simulate this as prevalence changes, like I just did here, showing test PPV (chances a positive is a true positive) and NPV (chances a negative result is true negative) as prevalence increases. At your 5% prevalence, a positive test is 82% likely to be correct (2/n)
..but the impressive part is the NPV: this is close to 100%, and tells us that a negative result is, in general, highly reliable (with some caveats). That is really important to know, as it means we can have confidence in negative results. That's extremely important! (3/n)
Unbelievable - Mark Zuckerberg refuses to remove #vaccine disinformation, because he thinks we should find media that reflects our opinion. That's precisely the problem - we're entitled to our own opinion, not our own facts. @Facebook don't care
... seriously, this is disingenuous. We as a species as not information-neutral - we are FAR more prone to believe repeated assertions (illusory truth effect), & more affected by emotive falsehood than mundane truth. Groups from anti-vaccine to #QANONS know this, so do @Facebook
..we also know exposure to anti-vaccine conspiracy theory makes parents vaccine hesitant (h/t @DrDanielJolley et al) AND Facebook a primary vector of this, which has been causing harm for years. @Facebook know this - they just see all engagement as profitable & don't give a damn
Yesterday Irish supreme court upheld "absolute confidence" bar on negative results from #CervicalCheck - by chance, preprint by @donalb5, @CiaranORiain, & several others on false positives / negatives just dropped. So let me explain why most scientists & docs unhappy (1/n)
First off, the idea behind screening is that you cast a wide net, and over a population, you catch some warning signs before they become a problem. The net is inherently imperfect - but on AVERAGE it saves lives. So what defines a test's reliability? These things (2/n)
So what do you want in an ideal screen? Some test with high sensitivity (correctly identifies the thing) and high specificity (doesn't accidentally say the thing is there when it's not). But prevalence matters too - take LBC, the standard modality. (3/n)