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Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
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25 Mar, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Ultra-geek on trade:

EU deals with two more countries on its tariff quota commitments in the WTO (implications for UK)

Pakistan (unchanged, negotiating rights acknowledged): data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/S…

Australia beef, sheepmeat, cheeses, rice, cane sugar: data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/S…
Explained here: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/09/12/hap…
And more details on what has been agreed so far here: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/technical-note…

Pakistan: the EU acknowledges that Pakistan is negotiating with Britain for a larger UK quota.

Australia ⬇️
Oh, and I missed Indonesia.

Here the method and data proposed by the UK and EU would have given Indonesia a cassava/manioc quota of zero in the EU27, all 825,000 tonnes going to the UK.

Indonesia secured 165,000 tonnes in the EU27 instead

data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/S…

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Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
22 Mar
Ms Tai @AmbassadorTai has been busy (1)
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Ms Tai has been busy (3)

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Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
22 Mar
What is the Ottawa Group? What is it proposing?

Led by Canada, it includes Australia, Brazil, Chile, EU, Japan, Kenya, S.Korea, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Switzerland and now UK

It originated in a meeting of ministers in Ottawa in 2018, then Davos early 2019

1/4
As several have pointed out, calling for "WTO reform" is easy. Agreeing on what it means is much more difficult.

The Ottawa Group's most recent activity in the WTO has been a proposed declaration on COVID-19 and trade docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…

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On other issues eg reforming WTO disputes, the group does not have a common position

Several have signed up to using arbitration as an alternative to appealing while the Appellate Body cannot function

So far the UK is only on one of these: docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…

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Read 5 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
20 Mar
COVID-19 in Switzerland. Week to 20.03.2021—numbers rising

Next easing delayed

Per 100K pop, total & last 2 weeks
● cases—6706 & 208
● in hospital—282 & 6
● deaths—110 & 1.4

R(e): up—1.13
Vaccinations: 1.2m (433K 2nd doses)

FOPH covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…

1/10 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases with data and chartScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations with datScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths with data and charScreenshot of box on reproductive number Re (lag in calculat
And for the past fortnight, R(e) since Sep28

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview

Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna mRNA vaccinations ongoing. Pfizer supply delayed. Still waiting for approval: AstraZeneca, Curevac and Novavax. Switzerland has ordered over 30m doses for 8m people

2/10 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases (past fortnight) wiScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations (past foScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths (past fortnight) wScreenshot of Reproductive number since 28.09.2020
Vaccination data and virus variants

“Fully” = second dose (where required)

Slow, steady (linear) growth
Delivered: 1.4m=15.5% (from 1.2m)
Administered: 1.2m=13.7% (from 884K)
Fully: 433K (from 300K)

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…
covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…
covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…

3/10 https://www.covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiologic/vacc-dosesChart of development over time of delivered and administeredScreenshot of list of variants and numbers identifiedScreenshot of graph of estimated proportion of relevant vari
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Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
13 Mar
COVID-19 in Switzerland. Week to 13.03.2021—cases, R up again

Govt limited easing Mar 1

Per 100K pop, total & last 2 weeks
● cases—6601 & 177
● in hospital—278 & 5
● deaths—109 & 1.2

R(e): up—1.08
Vaccinations: 1.0m (369K 2nd doses)

FOPH covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…

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And for the past fortnight, R(e) since Sep28

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview

Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna mRNA vaccinations ongoing. Pfizer supply delayed. Still waiting for approval: AstraZeneca, Curevac and Novavax. Switzerland has ordered over 30m doses for 8m people

2/10 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases (past fortnight) wiScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations (past foScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths (past fortnight) wScreenshot of Reproductive number since 28.09.2020
Vaccination data and virus variants

(Chart: past 28 days)

“Fully” = receiving second dose (where required)

Slow
Delivered: 1.2m=13.8% (from 976K) (up-tick). Administered: 884K=10.2% (from 651K). Fully: 300K (from 221K)

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…
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3/10 Screenshot of vaccinations data and graphics, past 28 daysScreenshot of list of variants and numbers identifiedScreenshot of graph of estimated proportion of relevant vari
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Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
10 Mar
What’s happening with the EU’s (and UK’s) tariff-quota commitments in the WTO?

We now have one set of data to look at

REMINDERS:

1. This is part of the Brexit process in the WTO:
—new commitments for the UK
—amended EU commitments

Explanation: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/09/12/hap…

1/9
2. Tariff quotas = low/zero import duty inside the quotas + much higher duty outside

3. Pre-Bexit: a single set of EU28 tariff quotas (because of the customs union) legally binding in the WTO.

Post-Brexit: separate UK and EU27 quotas

Explanation: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/09/12/hap…

2/9
4. UK and EU want EU27+UK quotas = EU28 quotas

5. Other countries objected. Requires negotiation with both the UK and the EU (under GATT Art.28)

See: wto.org/english/news_e…

3/9
Read 11 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
7 Mar
Final results of today's 3 national votes in Switzerland:

1. Ban on face-coverings/burqas—for 1.43m v 1.36m = 51.2% v 48.8%

This vote needed a cantonal majority and got it: 18 v 5

swissinfo.ch/eng/vote-resul…

1/4 Image
2. Electronic-ID by private companies overwhelmingly against—1.78m v 0.99m = 64.4% v 35.6%

Clean sweep of the cantons, although a majority not needed

swissinfo.ch/eng/vote-resul…

2/4 Image
3. EFTA-Indonesia free trade agreement (objection because of palm oil) approved—1.41m v 1.32m = 51.6% v 48.4%

Cantons against are all French-speaking except Fribourg (bilingual) and Basel City. Cantonal majority not needed.

swissinfo.ch/eng/vote-resul…

3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets

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