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Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
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20 Mar, 10 tweets, 9 min read
COVID-19 in Switzerland. Week to 20.03.2021—numbers rising

Next easing delayed

Per 100K pop, total & last 2 weeks
● cases—6706 & 208
● in hospital—282 & 6
● deaths—110 & 1.4

R(e): up—1.13
Vaccinations: 1.2m (433K 2nd doses)

FOPH covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…

1/10 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases with data and chartScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations with datScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths with data and charScreenshot of box on reproductive number Re (lag in calculat
And for the past fortnight, R(e) since Sep28

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview

Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna mRNA vaccinations ongoing. Pfizer supply delayed. Still waiting for approval: AstraZeneca, Curevac and Novavax. Switzerland has ordered over 30m doses for 8m people

2/10 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases (past fortnight) wiScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations (past foScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths (past fortnight) wScreenshot of Reproductive number since 28.09.2020
Vaccination data and virus variants

“Fully” = second dose (where required)

Slow, steady (linear) growth
Delivered: 1.4m=15.5% (from 1.2m)
Administered: 1.2m=13.7% (from 884K)
Fully: 433K (from 300K)

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…
covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…
covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…

3/10 https://www.covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiologic/vacc-dosesChart of development over time of delivered and administeredScreenshot of list of variants and numbers identifiedScreenshot of graph of estimated proportion of relevant vari
By canton: lab-confirmed cases in the past fortnight per 100K population—Similar pattern to a week ago worst in French-speaking west. Dark end of scale up from 270 to 327.

More: covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…

4/10 Screenshot of map showing different rates by canton: lab-con
By canton: lab-confirmed hospitalisation in the past fortnight per 100K population—Again similar pattern to last week. Numbers up slightly. Dark end of scale down from 15.82 to 15.36.

More: covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…

5/10 Screenshot of map showing different rates by canton: lab-con
By canton: deaths (which lag case numbers) tell yet another story—Numbers up slightly. Pattern similar to last week. A bit worse in west. Dark end of scale down from 7.3 to 6.1.

More: covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…

6/10 Screenshot of map showing different rates by canton: lab-con
Hospital capacity and occupancy: all patients and COVID-19 in ICU

Data from over 150 hospitals/clinics (Glarus and Appenzell Innerrhoden have no IC units)

All: Overall up slightly, patchy

COVID-19: down, mixed pattern

More: covid19.admin.ch/en/hosp-capaci…

7/10 Map of occupancy rates: all patientsMap of occupancy rates: COVID-19 patientsChart of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 occupancy since March 202
R(e) estimates: national over time, cantons latest.

Worsening. Most cantons now >1

Estimate: 1.13 nationally (from 1.08)

More: covid19.admin.ch/en/repro/val

Note: Swiss schools have stayed open during lockdown

8/10 Chart of reproductive number over timeMap of reproductive number by canton
Vaccination

Slow
Delivered: 1.3m (15% from 14%)
Administered: 1.2m (15% from 14%)
Fully vaccinated: 433K (5.0% from 4.3%)

More: covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…
Fully vaccinated people: covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…

9/10 Map of administered vaccines per 100 population by cantonMap of fully vaccinated people per 100 population by canton
Latest: After slowing, then stagnating, the number of new daily infections has started to rise again. On Mar 19 the government postponed from Mar 22 plans to further relax Covid-19 restrictions. A partial shutdown remains in place.

swissinfo.ch/eng/covid-19_c…

10/10

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Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
13 Mar
COVID-19 in Switzerland. Week to 13.03.2021—cases, R up again

Govt limited easing Mar 1

Per 100K pop, total & last 2 weeks
● cases—6601 & 177
● in hospital—278 & 5
● deaths—109 & 1.2

R(e): up—1.08
Vaccinations: 1.0m (369K 2nd doses)

FOPH covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…

1/10 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases with data and chartScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations with datScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths with data and charScreenshot of box on Reproductive number Re (lag in calculat
And for the past fortnight, R(e) since Sep28

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview

Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna mRNA vaccinations ongoing. Pfizer supply delayed. Still waiting for approval: AstraZeneca, Curevac and Novavax. Switzerland has ordered over 30m doses for 8m people

2/10 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases (past fortnight) wiScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations (past foScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths (past fortnight) wScreenshot of Reproductive number since 28.09.2020
Vaccination data and virus variants

(Chart: past 28 days)

“Fully” = receiving second dose (where required)

Slow
Delivered: 1.2m=13.8% (from 976K) (up-tick). Administered: 884K=10.2% (from 651K). Fully: 300K (from 221K)

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…
covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…

3/10 Screenshot of vaccinations data and graphics, past 28 daysScreenshot of list of variants and numbers identifiedScreenshot of graph of estimated proportion of relevant vari
Read 10 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
10 Mar
What’s happening with the EU’s (and UK’s) tariff-quota commitments in the WTO?

We now have one set of data to look at

REMINDERS:

1. This is part of the Brexit process in the WTO:
—new commitments for the UK
—amended EU commitments

Explanation: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/09/12/hap…

1/9
2. Tariff quotas = low/zero import duty inside the quotas + much higher duty outside

3. Pre-Bexit: a single set of EU28 tariff quotas (because of the customs union) legally binding in the WTO.

Post-Brexit: separate UK and EU27 quotas

Explanation: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/09/12/hap…

2/9
4. UK and EU want EU27+UK quotas = EU28 quotas

5. Other countries objected. Requires negotiation with both the UK and the EU (under GATT Art.28)

See: wto.org/english/news_e…

3/9
Read 11 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
7 Mar
Final results of today's 3 national votes in Switzerland:

1. Ban on face-coverings/burqas—for 1.43m v 1.36m = 51.2% v 48.8%

This vote needed a cantonal majority and got it: 18 v 5

swissinfo.ch/eng/vote-resul…

1/4 Image
2. Electronic-ID by private companies overwhelmingly against—1.78m v 0.99m = 64.4% v 35.6%

Clean sweep of the cantons, although a majority not needed

swissinfo.ch/eng/vote-resul…

2/4 Image
3. EFTA-Indonesia free trade agreement (objection because of palm oil) approved—1.41m v 1.32m = 51.6% v 48.4%

Cantons against are all French-speaking except Fribourg (bilingual) and Basel City. Cantonal majority not needed.

swissinfo.ch/eng/vote-resul…

3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
7 Mar
First voting day of the year in Switzerland. Three national issues:

1. Face coverings aka Burqas
2. e-Identity by private sector
3. Free trade agreement with Indonesia

There may be other issues in the cantons or locally

swissinfo.ch/eng/what-s-on-…

1/4
1. Face coverings aka Burqas

Latest: too close to call

swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss--bur…

2/4
2. e-Identity by the private sector

Explanation: swissinfo.ch/eng/digital-id…

3/4
Read 5 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
7 Mar
As always, a useful post from @xAlan_Matthews

On two points I beg to differ. Alan is not alone in believing agreement is possible on “public stockholding” and special safeguard mechanism by the year-end ministerial conference. …

1/5
None other than new WTO head @NOIweala also said it in last week’s General Council: “On Agriculture, let us identify a few things we can deliver such as PSH [“public stockholding”], SSM [special safeguard mechanism] …”

Who am I go disagree?

wto.org/english/news_e…

2/5
1. “Stockholding” is really about buying at govt-subsidised prices, ie domestic support

India does it for rice and wheat, major Indian exports

Movement is unlikely until India recognises the possible impact on world markets. Otherwise, no deal

See: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2020/08/24/rhe…

3/5
Read 5 tweets
Peter Ungphakorn Profile picture
6 Mar
COVID-19 in Switzerland. Week to 06.03.2021—cases, R up slightly

Govt limited easing Mar 1

Per 100K pop, total & last 2 weeks
● cases—6504 & 164
● in hospital—275 & 5
● deaths—108 & 1.2

R(e): up—1.04
Vaccinations: 885K (301K 2nd doses)

FOPH covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…

1/9 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases with data and chartScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations with datScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths with data and charScreenshot of box on Reproductive number Re (lag in calculat
And for the past fortnight, R(e) since Sep28

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview

Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna mRNA vaccinations ongoing. Pfizer supply delayed. Still waiting for approval: AstraZeneca, Curevac and Novavax. Switzerland has ordered over 30m doses for 8m people

2/9 Screenshot of box on lab-confirmed cases (past fortnight) wiScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed hospitalisations (past foScreenshot of box on lab-confirmed deaths (past fortnight) wScreenshot of Reproductive number since 28.09.2020
Vaccination data and virus variants

(Chart: past 28 days)

“Fully” = receiving second dose (where required)

Slow
Delivered: 1.2m=13.8% (from 976K) (up-tick). Administered: 884K=10.2% (from 651K). Fully: 300K (from 221K)

covid19.admin.ch/en/overview?ov…
covid19.admin.ch/en/epidemiolog…

3/9 Screenshot of vaccinations data and graphics, past 28 daysScreenshot of list of variants and numbers identifiedScreenshot of graph of estimated proportion of relevant vari
Read 9 tweets

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