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Nate Cohn Profile picture
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25 Mar, 4 tweets, 2 min read
It's an open question whether polling is 'dead.' Maybe it was simply hospitalized in critical condition and no one can be sure whether it will get out
One of the best hope for polling is the theory that the error/bias was mainly just about the coronavirus, for instance. Our Oct. 2019 polls were way better than Oct. 2020! The poll averages in Feb/Mar 2020 were way better too. But I think the evidence is pretty inconclusive
That said, history offers plenty of reason to hope that polling could leave the hospital. So if that's the main @NateSilver538 position here, then he's right that we may not disagree as deeply as I think
To be clear, I’m saying “dead” here in reference to the title of the article. I don’t think polling is useless, but I am trying to distinguish whether we disagree on how bad 2020 was or whether it’s permanent

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More from @Nate_Cohn

Nate Cohn Profile picture
25 Mar
I don't really agree with @NateSilver538's glass-half full perspective on the 2020 polling miss
fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-d…
I'd boil down the disagreement to one fundamental thing: I think low systemic bias is far, far more important than important for thinking about the polls than average error, while I think @NateSilver538 looks a lot more at average error
You can see both the magnitude of systemic bias in this chart, along with the case that there's a trend toward greater systemic bias. And fwiw, I think the D+5 bias is probably mitigated by some 'nonpartisan' firms that, tbh, aren't so nonpartisan or above the board
Read 17 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
9 Mar
Unlike most GOP restrictions on mail voting, this one targets a group of voters who backed Trump in 2020
Womp womp
For what it's worth, Fox News didn't know this either and that's why they prematurely called Arizona for Biden
Read 4 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
8 Mar
Would you support or oppose the following electoral system? (described in following tweets; poll in this tweet)
Basics:
--Four days of in-person early voting, including a weekend
--No excuse absentee voting, but application and ID required; ballot must be received by poll close (can drop off at staffed site (precinct)
--Same day and auto reg.
--Voter ID required, described in next tweet
Voter ID requirement met by one of the following: government issued photo-ID with address; two forms identification, both with name at least one with address (say, a utility bill and student ID); a sworn declaration by you and a reg. voter with ID who vouches for you.
Read 4 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
28 Feb
No one is particularly interested in a grand bargain on election administration, but the new GOP focus on mail balloting really does open things up, on paper (emphasis on “on paper”)
Why? Well, for starters, and as I've said a few times--to the objection of many twitter replies lol--no excuse absentee mail voting is certainly something Democrats ought to be able to negotiate on from the standpoint of both self-interest and lower-case 'd' democratic values.
Obviously, that basic fact really opens up the room to negotiate (again, on paper).
At the same time, ending absentee mail balloting rationalizes many reforms to improve accessibility that Ds would ordinarily be alone in demanding (like a national election holiday)
Read 7 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
22 Feb
This is only one obvious example of a broader tendency in Dem/progressive electoral thinking in recent years, which really wants to reduce elections to be turnout and electoral strategy to grassroots organization
It's a romantic view, since there's no secret of the progressive love of organizing. It's also a convenient view, since it shields activists from questioning their views or whether they represent who they say they do. It's also self-justifying: the solution is more campaign staff
And it was reinforced by the contrast of Democratic midterm losses in 10/14, which were certainly exacerbated by a less favorable turnout.
Democrats lost the plot when they tried to explain 2016 (and now 2020) away in the same way
Read 5 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
17 Feb
FWIW, there's a fine anti-mail ballot opinion /thinkpiece piece to be written from the left/Dem standpoint, and it could easily be an element of a hypothetical but not-going-to-happen bipartisan bill intended to improve the electoral system
There's no serious reason to think Democrats benefit from mail absentee voting and it does have some downsides for the electoral system. Dems could even trade it for something they should care about, if a bipartisan electoral bill was possible (doubt it)
There are many disadvantages: ballots cast before all info available, days before a result, unsecured ballots in transit, depends on often late third party delivery, mediocre verification leads to *both* unneeded rejections and credibility issues
Read 8 tweets

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