Here is something I learned today:

1. 1979 was peak inflation. It was also when the gap between rich and poor was the smallest.

2. It was preceded by a big wealth inequality b/w rich and poor like today.

3. Solution started in late 1960s with LBJs war on poverty.
4. By investing aggressively in infrastructure, social programs and an economic safety net he evened the starting line.

5. As “poor” started to earn more, they spent more, driving commodities and inflation.

6. The “rich” did less well because financial assets were worth less.
7. Gap between “rich” and “poor” closed aggressively.

8. Big realization for me is government spending leads the way not private/capital markets.

9. In last month we’ve decided to spend $1.9T + $3T!!
Fast forward to today and the same situation is at hand. Is Biden a quasi LBJ? Will he spend aggressively enough?

Early data seems to indicate so. And that these initiatives will help “poor” more than the “rich”.

If inflation comes back, inequality gap will shrink.
It may also be an effective way for Dems to guarantee winning the House + Senate in the midterms in 2022.

He who spends will win.

So buckle up. More money is likely coming. Inflation is probably coming, too. But less inequality will also come with it.

🌈 #TheMoreYouKnow

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More from @chamath

6 Mar
It’s been a super tough week for me and I’m sure a super tough week for some of you as well. Here is how I’m doing after Friday and what I’ve learned...
1. The first thing I tried to do yesterday was take a step back and try to see the bigger picture:

i) I looked at March-2020 as a guide and saw that by the end of March-2020, the markets were down 20% but still found a way to fight back. What’s the same? Different?
ii) I looked at my relative performance vs the S&P500 - 3.6% vs 2.3% = 56% above the benchmark. I’m no huge fan of being up 3.6% but right now I need to find confidence in this.

iii) I looked at my portfolio and remodeled everything I’m invested in. I’m still proud of it all.
Read 7 tweets
1 Feb
Please meet the Social Capital Emerging Managers Class of 2021

This cohort will be focused on public US equities and their strategies range from growth, tech, value, climate, YOLO and all have 💎🙌🏽!
In November, we set out to assemble a group of smart learners, from diverse backgrounds and experiences who wanted to become full time investors.

Our goal is to teach them how we think, learn how they think and support them in becoming the next generation of managers.
From 1500 applicants, we’ve hired 11 new PMs:

• 3 women, 5 minority, 2 vets
• Boston, NYC, Charlotte, Florida, LA, Bay Area
• entrepreneurs, traders, analysts and brand strategists

They start with $50M of our capital...and AUM will increase quickly with performance.
Read 5 tweets
28 Jan
A children's book explanation of what's happening:

1. If you are "smart money" you are allowed to take your $1 and leverage it up to $15+

2. You can now buy $15 of stock AND if you promise to short companies, you can short $15 of stock as well
3. In finance language, this means that you are $30 "gross" ($15 of longs + $15 of shorts) but $0 net (+$15 of longs -$15 of shorts). This makes everyone feel good because it feels like you are taking zero risk...but in reality, your $1 is exposed to $30 of risk.
4. Now you go around and tell your friends about both your longs and your shorts and when you do it at a restaurant vs on Reddit, its called an "ideas dinner".

5. You also publish your longs on a quarterly lag via an SEC rule. You don't have to tell anyone about your shorts.
Read 9 tweets
27 Jan
Today we announce a new venture, @ottrisk

Over the last year a few things have become clear: the world is more uncertain than ever, and the situation for small businesses is more perilous than ever.

Technology and capital can play a role in solving this problem.
It may sound boring to some but Insurance is a key enabler of economic growth and backstops trillions of dollars of economic activity.

As many business owners found out, significant gaps exist in coverage for the business interruptions that are becoming more and more frequent.
@davidsoloff and I are building @ottrisk to combine machine learning with traditional risk underwriting to make a meaningful start in filling the business interruption coverage gaps which are upending economic lives.
Read 4 tweets
19 Jan
Here's the story of how I came to own a piece of the @warriors.

In 2011, I was 34 and had left $FB to start @socialcapital. When I was raising my first fund, I spoke to @peterthiel about investing. He asked me how much I planned to invest as the founder and only keyman.
I told him that I planned to put in $20M. He laughed and said, triple it and I'm in. I wanted Peter to invest and be an LP so I did.

The first fund was $275M so $60M ended up being 22% of the capital. But it was a masterstroke of luck:

It gave me control.
1. I defined my carry: 30% and never changed it

2. I defined the terms of fund1 and every subsequent fund and never changed it.

3. I realized that I would have to invest $60M in every subsequent fund and may not see distributions for years so...i needed a hedge!
Read 11 tweets
31 Dec 20
Update on our Climate Change efforts:

- 1,000 total proposals submitted
- 156 were rated "Excellent" and were surveyed
- 29% were collaborative efforts
- 86% male / 14% female
- 38% non US (45% non US citizens)
- 24 countries represented
- 51% work in the private sector
Passion about climate change and recognition that this is one of the biggest challenges of our time was the driver for almost all applicants.

More than half of applicants were also interested in working with us on setting up this NewCo.
Age Distribution:
Read 5 tweets

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