1) Two surveys were released this week showing Quebecers’ growing frustration with public health measures in the #pandemic, just as the province confronts a third wave driven by the more contagious variants. In this thread, I will delve into the implications of this weariness.
2) A survey by Quebec’s public health institute found that 57% of Quebecers would find it “very difficult” to cope with #pandemic measures for another six months, up from 55% two weeks ago. And a CROP survey found mounting resentment toward restrictions.
3) Premier François Legault suggested Friday he was open to reversing some of his latest loosening of restrictions. But he added: “We need to have a balance if we want the population to follow the measures we put in place. If we’re too strong, too hard, we may lose everybody.”
4) Such remarks by the Premier raise questions as to how he has managed the public’s expectations in the #pandemic, especially after asserting earlier this week that Quebec was “resisting” the variants and a third wave. This messaging has been confusing at times.
5) On Friday, it took courage for Quebec’s top epidemiologist, Gaston De Serres, to state publicly that the current #pandemic measures “are not sufficient to control transmission of the variants.” On Saturday, Quebec’s College of Physicians backed De Serres.
6) Legault said he'd be consulting public health experts over the weekend to reach a decision on whether to reverse his easing of restrictions, including allowing gatherings of up to 250 people in houses of worship and high school seniors returning to class five days a week.
7) Meanwhile, the province was back to reporting more than 1,000 #COVID19 cases on Saturday. The Institut nationale de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ) posted an increase of 408 #variant cases. Montreal recorded the most, 175, followed by the Capitale-Nationale with 68.
8) The variants are circulating the most in schools and daycares. In the past week, more than 40 schools and daycares have announced they have confirmed or suspected variant cases, according to the authoritative website, covidecolesquebec.org. See the chart below.
9) On Saturday, the number of #COVID19 outbreaks in schools jumped by 21 to 161 — the highest increase in any sector and the fourth in as many days. Clusters in the workplace rose by seven to 294. The total number of outbreaks stood at 640, up from 612.
10) Montreal’s seven-day rolling average was 14.99 #COVID19 cases per 100,000 residents, up from a recent low of 13.89 on March 21. These numbers also reflect increased testing. Please take a look at the chart below.
11) At the neighborhood level, Côte-des-Neiges stood out in posting the greatest number of #COVID19 infections in the past week, followed by the north end and St-Laurent. In fact, the latter health district has posted the highest rate of cases per 100,000 residents.
12) So far, Quebec’s latest resurgence has not translated into rising hospitalizations, as they have in Ontario. One Ontario physician had this to say about the evolving #pandemic: “This third wave really is different, with 𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙮 𝙨𝙞𝙘𝙠 𝙮𝙤𝙪𝙣𝙜 𝙥𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙨.”
13) Let us hope Legault reaches the right decision this weekend, and that the government’s messaging in the #pandemic improves. End of thread. Please everyone, limit your social contacts and wear face coverings in public.
Addendum: For the past two days, Quebec has administered nearly 109,000 vaccine doses. At present, 19.12% of Montreal’s population has been partially vaccinated. That percentage should rise substantially with huge shipments expected next week.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

29 Mar
1) The #pandemic is once again surging in the Capitale-Nationale region of Quebec as it had last September, but this time it’s the more contagious variants — and not a karaoke bar — that’s driving the transmission. In this thread, I will focus on the regions beyond Montreal.
2) On March 21, the region that includes the provincial capital recorded 35 #COVID19 cases. By Sunday, that number more than tripled to 114. Also on Sunday, Quebec’s public health institute noted an increase of 94 variant cases in this region. Please see the chart below. Image
3) In the past two days alone, at least 13 schools in the Quebec City area announced they had suspected or confirmed variant cases, according to covidecolesquebec.org, which has been providing timelier updates on the variants than the Education Ministry.
Read 10 tweets
27 Mar
1) Premier François Legault flip-flopped Friday, acknowledging Quebec is in the “beginning of a third wave” in the #pandemic only three days after insisting the opposite. Unlike previous waves, more contagious variants of the #coronavirus are to blame here and across Canada.
2) For much of the #pandemic, British Columbia has managed to keep transmission of the #coronavirus relatively low. But on Friday, B.C. authorities confirmed 215 cases of the P.1 variant, the same strain that is causing massive deaths in Brazil. Quebec so far has one P.1 case.
3) Meanwhile, Ontario on Friday declared it has 58 cases of P.1, up by four from the previous day. In total, Ontario has 1,612 confirmed variant infections, more than double the tally in Quebec. And like B.C., #COVID19 hospitalizations in Ontario are on the upswing. See below.
Read 10 tweets
26 Mar
1) Breaking: the more transmissible #COVID19 variants are already the predominant strain in some regions of Quebec, according to the province’s public health institute.
2) The reproductive rate of the variants alone in Quebec is 1.31, suggesting that transmission of the more contagious strains is rising.
3) At present, 85% of presumptive variant cases that are genetically sequenced in Quebec turn out to be of the B.1.1.7 strain that originated in the U.K.
Read 4 tweets
26 Mar
1) In my @mtlgazette column tonight, I raise the question as to whether Quebec might be at the start of a third wave, where Ontario finds itself. In this thread, I'll elaborate on this possibility on the eve of Quebec’s loosening of #pandemic restrictions. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) Quebec observed two noticeable hikes Thursday: 945 #COVID19 cases, up from 783 the day before; and 314 new presumptive variant cases, the highest to date. What’s also noteworthy are the increases in regions across the province.
3) The Bas-Saint-Laurent posted 46 #COVID19 infections, up from 11 the previous day. This region also counted five more presumptive variant cases. The Outaouais, which is at risk of returning to red zone status, declared 51 more presumptive variant cases.
Read 10 tweets
25 Mar
1) COVID-19 outbreaks involving the more transmissible variants are on the rise in Montreal, while those linked to the older coronavirus strains are decreasing, the latest weekly report by the city’s public health department shows. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) What’s more, authorities have confirmed two cases of a fourth variant in Montreal, B.1.525, which arose in Nigeria and carries some of the same mutations as the B.1.1.7 strain. Previously, there was speculation Montreal might have had a strain from California.
3) On Feb. 12, British Columbia announced one case of B.1.525 associated with travel to Nigeria. This variant has been circulating in New York City, according to the New York Times. I have been unable to find other cases of B.1.525 elsewhere in Canada.
Read 10 tweets
24 Mar
1) Since late last week, the number of Quebec schools that have closed due to #COVID19 — most likely the variants — has jumped by 17 to 23. In this thread, I will assess Premier François Legault’s decision to let high school students in red zones resume full-time classes. Image
2) In addition to the temporary school closures, 232 more classrooms have been shuttered — for a total of 880, according to the latest chart by the Quebec Education Ministry. And on Tuesday, the number of #COVID19 school outbreaks rose by five to 106. Image
3) There is nothing to suggest that #COVID19 is subsiding in schools. In fact, as of 9:45 p.m. Tuesday, seven more schools in Quebec announced that they have suspected variant cases, according to the dependable covidecolesquebec.org. Image
Read 13 tweets

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