Thread by @DeanMThomson

A few thoughts on why Salmond's intervention could spell disaster for the SNP, and Nicola Sturgeon in particular. A small thread as I gather my reaction.

[1/10]

First thing to understand by way of context: holding #indyref2 is not at the top of most Scottish voters priorities list at the moment. The polling data is incredibly clear. Survation, Hanbury strategy, Scotland in Union polling (and many others) demonstrate this.[2/10]

Indeed, according to Hanbury Strategy's polling deep dive for think tank Onward found voters concerned the constitutional debate was distracting from other important priorities.[3/10]

You can begin to see Nicola Sturgeon's dilemma going into #Holyrood2021. She needs to talk about #indyref2, or her party grass roots will revolt. But she also needs to tone it down, or the wider electorate will revolt (never forget the chastening GE2017 experience)[4/10]

And let me remind you, in GE2017 Nicola Sturgeon was caught off guard by the snap general election. She had been talking up #indyref2 for a while, not anticipating an immediate election. She & the SNP suffered badly for being out of step with Scottish voters priorities[5/10]

Blair McDougal over on his (excellent) 'Notes on Nationalism' blog highlighted that Nicola Sturgeon was at pains in her election launch to *avoid* as much as possible going on about indyref2.

See: 'Nicola Sturgeon is on a Tightrope': notesonnationalism.substack.com/p/holyrood-202… [6/10]

So what impact do you think Alex Salmond and his 'Alba Party' will have?

There is a massive risk for the First Minister. Mr Salmond is going to force Ms Sturgeon to keep returning to the constitutional question (which the SNP ordinarily prefer to soft peddle in elections)[7/10]

This is exceedingly likely to become the first election here in Scotland which the SNP formidable PR machine cannot strategically control the narrative. And Mr Salmond's new outfit is all about holding the SNP's feet to the fire on indyref2. [8/10]

There is a massive opening in the middle. If an opposition party can capitalise on any of this, SNP could suffer badly. And it won't matter if Alba aren't standing in constituencies. Anas Sarwar & Douglas Ross are both working out how to exploit Sturgeon's big weakness.[9/10]

➡️'Notes on Nationalism': notesonnationalism.substack.com
➡️'Joseph Rowntree Foundation' polling described in the Scotsman:
scotsman.com/news/politics/…
➡️'Scotland In Union' poll results (Survation):
scotlandinunion.co.uk/post/new-poll-…
➡️Reporting on Hanbury Strategies: independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi… [10/10]

*My apologies to @blairmcdougall for misspelling his name in the above, but really folks, follow the link to his Notes On Nationalism blog. Illuminating stuff.