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Dean M Thomson Profile picture
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27 Mar, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Doesn’t, on the face of it, seem that Alba is much of a danger to the Scottish Tories, but much more a danger to Scottish Labour in terms of danger of losing list MSPs.
Again however, I don’t fully buy this sort of stats obsessed analysis. For example, imagine Salmond speaks about a diff way (non referendum) to achieve independence, Sturgeon would be forced to respond. Indyref2 is not a voter priority for maj. That hurts SNP in constituencies.
And I repeat: list and constituency don't happen in a vacuum. The political x-factors matter: SNP won't control strategic narrative, Sturgeon (already damaged) is further damaged by 6-week bun fight with Salmond. SNP further seen as a divided party, not focused on voters concerns
So it might not matter that Salmond's rag tag band aren't standing in the constituencies; his impact will be felt anyway (at the SNPs expense) and likely Scottish Labour & Scottish Tory gain.

Sturgeon has a tightrope to walk, Alba destroys her balance

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More from @DeanMThomson

Dean M Thomson Profile picture
27 Mar
Part Three in my thread series on dodgy election promises & campaign statements. This time @NicolaSturgeon is up. She has pledged ‘100,000 new affordable homes’ to be build in the next decade if she’s re-elected.

Only problem is... [1/11]
...she’s promised affordable housing targets before, and never met them. Ever. Not once.

Let’s go back to the close of the 2016 parliament.

@theSNP boasted of meeting their 30,000 affordable homes target.

How wonderful...except...[2/11] Image
30,000 wasn’t the original original target. That was a slight of hand. Clever PR. A trick if you will.

Despite the SNPs self congratulations, this 30,000 target was a downward revision. They lowered the target after the 2011 victory so as to meet it. [3/11] Image
Read 14 tweets
Dean M Thomson Profile picture
27 Mar
While the #SNP & #Alba fight about defections and #indyref2 strategies...here is the state of poverty in #Scotland after 14 years of nationalist governance

Talking relative poverty, child poverty & pensioner poverty statistics. [1/14]
➡️Relative Poverty 2015-2020

"Poverty rate continues to rise" 2015-2018

20% of people in Scotland were living in relative poverty after housing costs in 2015-18.
gov.scot/publications/p… [2/14]
An estimated 19% of Scotland’s population (1.03 million people/year) living in relative poverty after housing costs in 2017-20. Before housing costs, 17% of the population (910,000 people) were living in poverty.
data.gov.scot/poverty/#relat… [3/14]
Read 16 tweets
Dean M Thomson Profile picture
26 Mar
A few thoughts on why Salmond's intervention could spell disaster for the SNP, and Nicola Sturgeon in particular. A small thread as I gather my reaction.

[1/10]
First thing to understand by way of context: holding #indyref2 is not at the top of most Scottish voters priorities list at the moment. The polling data is incredibly clear. Survation, Hanbury strategy, Scotland in Union polling (and many others) demonstrate this.[2/10]
Indeed, according to Hanbury Strategy's polling deep dive for think tank Onward found voters concerned the constitutional debate was distracting from other important priorities.[3/10]
Read 11 tweets
Dean M Thomson Profile picture
25 Mar
Part two of my push to call out blatant lies & deliberately misleading campaign material. Sadly we're going to have to talk about @CStevensonSNP again.

In this case it's to call out the misleading (and, in my opinion, quite shameless) [1/15]
Here is a tweet from Collette Stevenson, Candidate for East Kilbride. Number 44 in her boast of 50 SNP achievements is 'Care For All'

'Free personal and nursing care extended to everyone who needs it, regardless of age'.

Sounds great, but she's leaving some things out[2/15] Image
First of all, the real thanks for free personal care in Scotland to under-65s should go to Amanda Kopel. She tirelessly led a campaign which began with a petition to MSPs at Holyrood back in 2013.[3/15] Image
Read 16 tweets
Dean M Thomson Profile picture
25 Mar
Word of the day, 'jejune'. Why is that my word of the day? And how does it relate to the First Minister?

Have a read at my thread and find out...
[1/10]
On February 16th Nicola Sturgeon claimed churches & places of worship were "not closed, but the ability to worship normally and freely is restricted."
(theyworkforyou.com/sp/?id=2021-02…)
[2/10]
But Canon Tom White, the parish priest of St Alphonsus in Glasgow east end alongside other Christian denominations joined together to challenge the FM in a Judicial Review.

I wonder if the FM is getting tired of Judicial Reviews at this point?
(heraldscotland.com/news/19096949.…)
[3/10]
Read 10 tweets
Dean M Thomson Profile picture
24 Mar
Since FMQs had the FM boasting about 'progress' made on closing the attainment gap, I've made a thread on the subject. The goals #ScotGov set itself, and the realities of where we've ended up.
[1/17]
What is the 'attainment gap'?

In Scotland school pupils from most deprived areas do significantly worse at every level of education on average, compared to least deprived areas. This is what is meant by 'the attainment gap'.

You can see why it's an important problem. [2/17]
In a speech to Holyrood in May 25th 2016 the FM said:

"I want our work to close the attainment gap to be the mission, not just of this government or even parliament, but of the country as a whole"

So has she succeeded in closing the attainment gap in education? [3/17]
Read 17 tweets

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