Thread by @Jean__Fisch

Preparing for the variants: The reaction of some of the experts / responsibles in this report are really worrysome.

Let me explain why with the approach here, we will do the same risk management error again

1/N

https://twitter.com/vrtnws/status/1375806444260429831

There is a serious risk that variants are evading the vaccines. We don't know, but the if they do, we may need to return to social distancing, lock downs etc.

2/N

We know that we need up to 6 months to plan such a campaign (get the manufacturing right, prepare the logistics, etc.)

3/N

Option 1: we wait and understand better

Option 2: we launch now

4/N

Option 1: We wait - What happens?

A/ If the variants are not evading, it was the optimal cost option

B/ If the variants are evading, we risk 3 months delay (as UK and US are first) and full lockdown for months

5/N

Option 2: We launch now - What happens?

1/ If the variants are not evading, we will have had costs for nothing (but can still give the doses away as part of COVAX)

2/ If the variants are evading, we will be ready to limit impact

6/N

Clearly, the UK goes (as in March 2020), for option 2

Question: what should 🇪🇺 do?

N/N

In summary

➡️Yes we don't know if future vaccines will be effective against variants
➡️Yes we don't know if our current vaccines will be effective
➡️But we do know that if we don't start now, we leave the impact of variants to pure luck