Nomura is a small prime broker, CS is a big one, MS / GS as well, CS must have the biggest hit relative to Nomura at $2B - we have to assume $8B to $12B hit across them all?
CDS was telling us something Friday.. Credit leads equities..
1. No one knows how big he was or how levered. 2. Have to assume goldman went first and protected itself. MS not far behind.— but with bigger exposure could have a loss. Those that acted slower (nomura, cs) probably left holding the bag???
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- relative value rates, sell-off in 5s vs rest of the curve, US treasuries.
*in both cases too much capital was hiding out in crowded venues.
When central banks do NOT allow the business cycle to function over longer and longer periods of time - the good news is wealth creation becomes colossal. Bad news is Capital moves into crowded venues, poised for disruption.
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In rates, as the bond market sold-off. Originally, the long end 30s was deemed at risk, capital moved into 10s, 7s, a “safe” place. As selling pressure moved into the middle part of the curve, trillions moved into the front-end looking for duration risk shelter.
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Froth Impact: Market Trigger’s the Policy Response
SEC: “We are aware of and actively monitoring the on-going market volatility in the options and equities markets and, consistent with our mission to protect investors and maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets.”
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One of the problems with sell side banks is a classic silo-ization. Splintered fiefdoms litter the field often times with little top down coordination between the views of equity analysts, economists, high yield bond traders, fixed income strategists, rates trading etc.
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Each group is a power center with their own p/l, their own Senior MD leadership - with the highly profitable silos carrying the most weight, influence over high level decision making across the firm. In periods of significant market dislocations
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Indoor dining restrictions, weather seasonal impact. Leisure & Hospitality Sector, a colossal 498k jobs were lost in December, 372k of those L&H layoffs were at restaurants and bars. Fiscal relief is NOT focused here, should be.
In the first week of '21, Wall St. strategists already have to revise their growth forecasts and average missed on jobs numbers. Reprint the 500-page new yr outlook, a good kindling recourse for the fireplace.
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Why does @stoolpresidente have more focus here than Congress? House and Senate are shotgunning billions of dollars around the planet. More targeted U.S. focused assistance to those in need is in order, asap.
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