Thread by @DrTracyTaylor

@APDillon_ @Chad_Adams @PeteKaliner @jonpsanders @JohnLockeNC 1/ NC SC-2 Trends thru 3/2/21 w/current data (graphs) to reflect real-time trends. NCDHHS modifies dashboard w/# of tests (⬇️’s incidence); adds death data back to 6/20! NCDHHS no longer updating dashboard on wkends.

2/ Overall incidence ⬇️ to 8.37% (⬇️ 0.1%). Overall incidence has never been at 5% since testing began; no statistically significant change since the mask mandate.

3/ Daily incidence b/w 3.74% & 9.26% (9.26% =reporting inconsistency; see graph) over last 14 days. Avg daily incid on 3/2 =3.96%. Avg daily incid each month: May: 6.80% Sept: 5.69% Jan: 12.01%
June: 7.64% Oct: 6.37% Feb: 7.96%
July: 8.10% Nov: 7.37%
Aug: 6.94% Dec: 10.91%

4/ Avg wkly incidence =5.99% (⬇️ 0.76%). Avg wkly incid over last 3 wks =6.8%. Avg wkly incid each month: May: 6.9% Sept: 5.7% Jan: 12.4% June: 7.4% Oct: 6.3% Feb: 8.58%
July: 8.11% Nov: 6.88%
Aug: 7.38% Dec: 10.59%

5/ Rolling 14-day incidence avg is 6.37%. After mask mandate, rolling 14-day incidence has fluctuated despite mask compliance ~90%. Rolling 14-day avg each month:
May: 6.66% Sept: 5.9% Jan: 12.38%
June: 7.59% Oct: 6.15% Feb: 8.87%
July: 7.95% Nov: 6.95%
Aug: 7.28% Dec: 10.2%

6/ # active cases (31,949) ⬇️d for 7th consec wk. We saw ⬇️ in cases in Feb, as consistent w/flu/PNA. Caseloads have normalized in hospitals. Avg # new cases/day each month:
May: 583 Sept: 1352 Jan: 7032
June: 1164 Oct: 2065 Feb: 3686
July: 1859 Nov: 2996
Aug: 1498 Dec: 5646

7/ # of Feb tests = 1,330,547. NCDHHS back fills test data, &today (3/28) tests can be back filled from 2/24 to present.
May: 271,133 Oct: 1,037,783
June: 348,174 Nov: 1,242,860
July: 714,289 Dec: 1,673,424
Aug: 699,911 Jan: 1,896,598
Sept: 773,697 Feb: 1,330,547

8/ % recovered =94.95%, % active cases =3.7%, CFR =1.35%. Mortality rate =0.111%. Avg # deaths/day =19 on 3/2. Avg # deaths/day each month:
3/20: 0.8 8/20: 28 1/21: 90
4/20: 14 9/20: 26.6 2/21: 37
5/20: 18 10/20: 29 3/2/21: 19
6/20: 15.3 11/20: 36.4
7/20: 21 12/20: 63.7

9/ 0-17 & 18-24 cohorts, where 16 deaths reported out of 224,838 cases (CFR = 0.00712%) since 6/15. Conversely, while 15% of NC COVID cases (130,541) are in 65-75+ cohort, 84% of all NC COVID deaths (9,826) are in this cohort; of these 44.2% have been in congregate settings.

10/ Hospitalizations reporting changed on 11/13, ⬇️ by 227 pts to 1303. NOTE: on 3/28/21, vent, ICU, & inpatient available capacity well w/in normal limits and have been for ~3 weeks. Will no longer report available capacity unless I see it trending negatively again.

11/ % change in active cases, tests, & incidence ⬇️ for 7th consecutive ek. That’s a very good sign! WCPSS reported 79 cases 2/25-3/3 (53 students/26 staff). Private/charter schools report 116 cases (94 students/22 staff).

12/ Covid cases/cohort ⬇️‘d in all cohorts. Main drivers Covid spread =25-49 yrs, 50-64 yrs, then 18-24 yrs. On 3/2, there were 2403 active cases in 50-64 group & 4627 in 25-49 group (total 7,030). There are 3491 active cases total in 2-24 cohort in ALL NC, not just Wake County.

13/13 Overall, average daily/weekly/rolling 14-day incidence, active cases, hospitalizations, daily cases, and deaths/day all ⬇️. Hospital capacity is no longer an issue.

@threadreaderapp please unroll