Thread by @DrTracyTaylor

@APDillon_ @jonpsanders @JohnLockeNC @PeteKaliner @Chad_Adams @KCOnTheRadio 1/ NC SC-2 data post for 3/9/21 w/comparison to 3/2/21 in parentheses unless otherwise noted.

But 1st let me preface data: as of 3/28, there are ~22,555 active Covid cases in ALL of NC.

2/ This means 0.215% of NC population has Covid. So 99.785% of NC pop does NOT have Covid; that’s ~10.467 MILLION people who don’t have Covid.

3/ Other stats:
•6 flu deaths in NC since 10/3; 1 in 25-40 cohort & 5 in 65+ cohort
•24% of NC have been vaccinated or had Covid

4/ Via NCDHHS, on 3/9 there were 875,903 (+) cases (⬆️ 12,494) & 837,824 recovered cases (⬆️ 17,985), 11,698 deaths (⬆️ 77), w/1,083 hospitalized (⬇️ 220). There were 26,381 active cases (⬇️ 5,118). NCDHHS cont to backfill/edit tests on dashboard back ~1 mo (⬇️’s positivity),

5/ &edits death data back ~6 mo, is 15 days behind on case demographic data. Recovery rate & active case rate continue trending in right direction for 6th consec wk. Hospitals aren’t near capacity. NOTE: on 3/28/21, vent, ICU, & inpt avail capacity well WNL; have been for ~3 wks.

6/ Will no longer report avail capacity unless I see it trending negatively again (I don’t foresee that happening until next ILI “season”).

Avg wkly incid ⬇️ from 5.99% to 5.13%. Currently 95.7% recovered (⬆️ 0.7%), 1.34% deaths, & 3.01% active cases (⬇️ 0.69%).

7/ Out of 10,607,439 completed tests there were 875,903 (+) cases, w/8.26% overall incid (⬇️ 0.11%). Prevalence is 8.35% (⬆️ 0.12%).

On 3/9 there were 997 (+) cases out of 29,347 tests, w/3.4% incid. Rolling 14-day incid avg =5.56% (⬇️ 0.81%). Avg deaths per day =11 (⬇️ 9.14).

8/ 44.67% of all deaths in NC are in congregate settings (SNF, RCF, CF) - ⬆️ 0.46%).

For 0-17 yrs, 12% of all cases have been ID’d w/3 deaths overall. For 18-24 yrs, 14% of all cases have been ID’d, w/13 deaths overall.

CFR =1.34%, mortality rate is 0.112% (⬆️ 0.001%).

9/ If all NC active cases were located solely in Wake County, incidence would be 2.33% (⬇️ 0.49%).

At quick glance, avg wkly incid is ~5.95% over last 3 wks, & prevalence ⬆️. Overall, avg daily/wkly/rolling 14-day incid, # of active cases, hospitalizations, & deaths/day ⬇️.

10/ We are continuing to see testing of true (+) pts & seasonality of this virus (typical w/ PNA & flu too). NCDHHS website shows curves w/previous years’ flu data as compared to Covid. The curves reflect what I stated 11 wks ago - seasonality & ~non-existent flu this year.

11/ They also show curves b/w NC regions that are almost identical, both in NC & throughout USA. The website also shows age groups admitted to hospital w/Covid, but fails to show comorbidities w/these age groups.

12/ Cont NCDHHS website issues:
Still not showing # recovered/incorporating into stats, recovery #’s by demographics, differentiation b/w symptomatic/asymptomatic cases, deaths/hosp w/comorbidities, & rolling 14-day incid avg. NC uses PCR Ct ~37, so likely high % false (+)’s.

13/13 @andrewbostom sees correlation b/w PCR Ct # & symptomatic/asymptomatic & infectious/non-infectious pts who’ve tested (+). @WCPSS doesn’t publish census at schools w/(+) cases. Context matters! #FactsNotFear

@threadreaderapp please unroll