Thread by @YasinAhIsmail

THREAD on Friday's parliamentary crisis in #Mogadishu and broadly #Somalia's existing #electoral turmoil. I discuss what happened, and towards the end, I offer a possible electoral solution for a way forward. 1/17

At stake are two issues: did #Speaker #Mursal and opposition MPs follow the parliamentarian procedures, and does the speaker have the authority, under the parliament's rules & regulations, to suspend the 15 opposition MPs for 5 seating? Second, where do we go from here? 2/17

The speaker cited Art. 16 (1,2); Art. 18 (a, b); Art. 19 - 1 (b, c, d, e, f, g) & Art. 28-5 (n). Most of the above articles deal with the speaker's powers, the deputies, and governs' behaviors/conduct of legislators when parliament is in session. 3/17

Under parliamentary rules, the speaker has no power to suspend MPs for five seating. The only power that the speaker has is listed under Art. 16, sub-article 4, which the speaker conveniently fails to cite when he cited the other sub-articles of Art 16 in his statement. 4/17

Art 16, sub-art. 4, states that the speaker has the power to suspend a session and postpone the agenda to a later time/date if chaos breaks in parliament. 5/17

Now, the speaker does have the power to maintain order and civility when in session. This means the speaker can remove an unruly MP from the session; however, as long as the MP agrees to abide by the procedures, such a member has every right to return to the session. 6/17

I point out these articles because this isn't a procedural crisis; this is a political crisis masked as a procedural and legal issue. And to be fair, both the speaker and the opposition MPs failed to abide by these parliamentary rules. 7/17

One central observation can be made: the lack of trust in the institution that is the parliament, which exacerbates the current #electoral #crisis. 8/17

Remember, it is the parliament that elected #Farmaajo. Thus, if the institution were to operate as intended, it would have been the parliament negotiating the electoral process with the Federal Member States (FMS) and the President. 9/17

During the 2012 election season, the House, under Speaker Jawaari, took this role seriously. For example, Speaker #Jawari briefly served as the Acting President while the House was electing President #Hassan #Sheikh #Mohamud. 10/17

Now, where do we go from here? I firmly believe parliament must again play a central role in shepherding the country out of this cliff. How? First, it is clear to any objective observer the current speaker doesn't command confidence with a significant number of MPs. 11/17

Thus, since the mandate of the President & the Legislature ended, parliament should extend the parliament's mandate on a caretaker basis, elects a new Speaker, who will, in turn, select a new transitional president for a 2-year term. 12/17

The current Cabinet and Prime Minister @MohamedHRoble remain in office as a caretaker government. Moreover, the new caretaker president cannot run for another term immediately following the 2-year term. 13/17

The new caretaker president's primary responsibility is to chart a new path for a hybrid election: a one-person, one vote in areas where it can be securely held and an expanded indirect electoral approach in areas where a popular election is not possible. 14/17

I argue this offers a new opportunity and instills confidence in both the opposition, Pres. @M_Farmaajo supporters, and the various FMS authorities including @SaidAbdullahiDe and @PresidentMadobe . 15/17

For example, Farmaajo has continued to insist he would prefer a direct election – well, this accomplishes that. For the opposition and some of the FMS, a new caretaker presidency serves as an impartial partner. 16/17

This maintains the integrity of the elections, creates a level playing field, & preserves the gains made since 2009. Lastly, even though #Somalia has had an imperfect system to s/elect its leaders, it has continued to excel in #power #transfer. This approach maintains that. 17/17

Some corrections/edits: the disagreements in parliament occurred on Saturday not Friday. Also it’s parliamentary sittings* not seating. Another vote for an edit function on Twitter.