A cherry-picked stat is creating a media frenzy.

- A 50% ⬆️ in % of ICU admits in "younger people" vs. Dec is driven MOSTLY by admits in the 50-59 cohort!

- Yes, some ⬆️ in # of 49&U admits. BUT, the Ontario Science Table should know:

TWO data points DO NOT make a trend👇
2/

The data in the Toronto Database (as of Mar 22) are abundantly clear:

There were just FIVE (5) Toronto residents 49 & Under in ICU (1 39 & U), down from 12 as of Dec 21/’20

The next weekly Toronto database update is tomorrow, and I will update if there is a material change.
3a/

Related: an Important data note/inquiry for CCSO (@criticalcareON) & @PublicHealthON:

There appears wide divergence in ICU admits between (i) PubHealth Ontario’s Case & Contact Management (CCM) database and (ii) the CCSO data. (The Toronto data cited above is from the CCM).
3b/

@criticalcareON & @publichealthON data inquiry (cont’d):

Note the wide difference in “New CRCI Census” (new C19 ICU admits) in the CCSO data (left image, green line) and the daily change in “Ever ICU” in the PubHealth Ontario data (right image) from the daily epi summaries.
3c/

Also, for example, in its report yesterday, the Ontario Science Table (@COVIDSciOntario) ICU admits # of 157 for Mar 15-21 appears to match the @criticalcareON reports. But this # is much higher than the change in “Ever in ICU” for Mar 15-21 in the @publichealthON CCM data:
3d /

@criticalcareON and @publichealthON, can you please explain why these daily ICU admit stats appear to differ between your two reporting systems/methods? If there is a simple explanation for this, can you please provide it? Cc: @ONTHealth, @JeanmarcBenoit. Thanks in advance.
End & Sources/

Toronto Open Data: open.toronto.ca/dataset/covid-…

Ontario Daily Epi Summaries: covid-19.ontario.ca/covid-19-epide…

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More from @rubiconcapital_

25 Mar
1/4

The Ontario Science Table on March 23, published this report essentially recommending AGAINST asymptomatic testing of LTC staff, citing:

-Consistent low %pos of staff in screening
-Vaccination protection of LTC residents

Key observations follow...
covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/r…
2/4

Observation 1

54% of Ontario C19 deaths were among ~80k LTC residents. OST is essentially confirming this population is protected.

Ex-LTC, Ontario C19 deaths =~23 per 100,000 (in line with flu/pneumonia deaths in 🇨🇦).
C19 Survival rate excluding outbreak deaths 70+ =99.2%
3/4

Observation 2

OST indicates/quantifies the extremely low test % positivity of LTC staff in screen testing.

This seems contradictory to the OST conclusion that community incidence of C19 is the key predictor of LTC outbreaks.

Perhaps there is an explanation? cc:@drbobbell
Read 4 tweets
15 Mar
Ontario Science Table lockdown policy, backed by @fordnation, @JohnTory & @epdevilla, appears to have dramatically shifted C-19 disease burden onto the low income, high visible minority, high household density, high service worker areas of Toronto.

Shocking #’s & visuals follow. Image
First, a message to vulnerable communities:

In my opinion, health/govt officials put you in harms way. They⬆️your mobility *relative to the population*, shifting community disease burden onto you. They did not care about you. They cared about themselves and their failed policy.
We know there were relative disease burden differences. But to what degree?
Read 18 tweets
5 Mar
1/ Mass Vaccination – Why Do We Need it in Ontario (or anywhere?)

- LTC residents nearly vaccinated (55% of C-19 mortality)
- Progress in the most vulnerable (70+, 87% of mortality, 12% of pop)

A short thread with clips & charts, based on my recent video
2/ The public health messaging is clear—everybody needs a vaccine.

Dr. DeVilla of Toronto: “the sooner we have needles in arms and the more needles in arms we have, the better off we all are.”

(all clips from March 1, 2021 pressers)
3/ Dr. Williams, the Chief Doctor in Ontario:

“Wait for your vaccine, it's coming, we want everybody vaccinated, not just some, we want everybody done in a timely pattern.”
Read 18 tweets
31 Jan
Sensational article appealing to emotions, claiming Toronto ICUs "struggling with younger C19 patients". The headline may have you think ICU is in onslaught with young kids. ICUs are challenged, but the following charts don't match this narrative. 1/
twitter.com/i/events/13559…
Here are percentage of total COVID19 ICU admissions by age group in the 1st vs 2nd wave. Extremely low 6% of all ICU admissions in Under 39 ages, with only minimal changes in overall ICU admission mix in older ages. So the age mix of patients is roughly similar.
Here is the actual number of daily ICU admissions by age group... Under 39, 40-69, 70+....
Yes, we see the older ages are increasing... just like they were in the first wave...
Under 39 ages? ABOUT 1 ICU ADMISSION EVERY 5 DAYS.
Read 8 tweets
25 Jan
1/ It's hopeless, a thread.
2/ In the city of Toronto’s COVID19 update today, @epdevilla confirmed all first-round vaccines have been delivered at *ALL 87* of the city’s long-term care facilities and high-risk retirement homes.
3/ That’s great news !!

54.6% of Toronto’s fatalities occurred in these at risk groups…
…and excluding the high-risk LTC population…
…Toronto’s case fatality rate is 0.68%
…and just * 0.21% * in the under 69 population !

(see graph next tweet)
Read 9 tweets
24 Jan
That may currently be true, @BeateSander, but:

1. @DFisman (Science Table member) has helped Scarsin (a for-profit disease modelling software company) lobby the Ford gov't; and

2. York Region (1.2m people) currently uses the Scarsin platform. Image
From the Scarsin website: Image
Read 4 tweets

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