Share this page!

Abraar Karan Profile picture
Twitter logo
30 Mar, 4 tweets, 4 min read
1/ Sharing new piece: we have learned a lot this year about the deficiencies of the ‘test,trace, isolate’ system, but it is still going to be needed to burn out the epidemic once case numbers are brought down further.

W/ @RanuDhillon
@washingtonpost
washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/0… Image
2/ With most of the focus on 💉💉 right now (as it should be)— our other pandemic tools like Test, Trace, Isolate (TTI) have taken a backseat.

Yet, they are still crucial to stopping the #covid19 epidemic- but we need to do each of them better.
3/ Having this infrastructure in place will be essential for future infectious disease outbreaks/pandemics.

I expect TTI will become especially relevant again this summer to stop ongoing transmission chains once we have vaccinated a majority of country

Cc @cshea4 @PostOpinions
Cc @IngridKatzMD @lmadoff @drdavidwalton @MikeMadden @carlzimmer @syramadad @BhadeliaMD @Atul_Gawande @ashishkjha

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Abraar Karan

Abraar Karan Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @AbraarKaran

Abraar Karan Profile picture
1 Apr
“While more than six million of the country’s 18 million people have been vaccinated, a surge in infections has left intensive-care units operating with few beds to spare and the system at a breaking point.” From Chile @nytimes
#covid19

nytimes.com/2021/03/30/wor…
2/ “Dr. Francisca Crispi, a regional president of Chile’s medical association, said that 20 to 30 percent of medical professionals in the country had gone on leave because they are so exhausted.”
3/ “No one questions that the vaccination campaign is a success story,” she said. “But it conveyed a false sense of security to people, who felt that since we’re all being vaccinated the pandemic is over.”
Read 4 tweets
Abraar Karan Profile picture
29 Mar
Hoping for less deadly surges

1/ An important piece of the puzzle that some have pointed to: 49% of 65+ in our country have been *fully vaxx*; 73% have received at least 1 dose

We know age is single most significant risk factor in mortality. #covid19

covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
2/ While proposed plans to simply isolate the elderly are largely unachievable/ not how societies fundamentally function-- what many of us do agree on is that vaccinating the elderly as a priority group is critical; and we are doing it well.

cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
3/ With real world data from @CDCMMWR today showing significant protection even 2 weeks after just the 1st dose of mRNA vaccines, I am optimistic that we should see a further notable reduction in mortality even w/ subsequent #covid19 surges

Read 5 tweets
Abraar Karan Profile picture
29 Mar
Excellent news from @CDCMMWR today!

Under real-world conditions, vaccine effectiveness of mRNA (Moderna, Pfizer) vaccines:
-90% after 2 doses
-80% after one dose (both measured 14 days after dose) #covid19

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
2/ "Prospective cohorts of 3,950 health care personnel, first responders, and other essential and frontline workers completed weekly SARS-CoV-2 testing for 13 consecutive weeks."

Data collected from eight U.S. locations during December 14, 2020–March 13, 2021 #covid19
3/ "CDC routinely tested for SARS-CoV-2 infections every week regardless of symptom status and at the onset of symptoms consistent with COVID-19–associated illness."

Gets at one of the biggest questions since the vaccines came out: extent of reduction in asymptomatic cases
Read 6 tweets
Abraar Karan Profile picture
29 Mar
1/ The key bottleneck to scaling mRNA vaccines is a "worldwide shortage of essential components... nucleotides, enzymes, & lipids", according to this piece.

But...companies that can do this are not licensing their manufacturing so that others can join in nature.com/articles/d4158…
2/ So, once again, the issues we are facing are *man-made*

They are issues with how financial incentives overpower global health equity

There are ways that we could scale up more right now; but that won't happen because it threatens wealth

@gregggonsalves @PeterHotez
3/ These are complicated matters. But the system as it stands is not designed for health emergencies: it generates products (i.e. vaccines) for the few who can afford them; everyone else is subject to 'charity'

Even during a pandemic.
#covid19
Read 4 tweets
Abraar Karan Profile picture
28 Mar
1/ As I reflect on the arguments people have put forward regarding individual rights...

Those opposed to masks likely would *not be opposed* (before #covid9) to a restriction of someone coughing/sneezing in your face if they were sick

Yet, we know the logic here is the same
2/ With asymptomatic spread, it doesn’t take coughing/sneezing; it just takes talking/breathing in a public space near others to infect them

So- the rules of the game haven’t changed here

Your right to do certain things is still limited by how they harm other people
3/ Yet their seems to be a perception/misperception that having people wear a mask in public spaces during a respiratory pandemic is somehow a restriction on freedoms

It is not

It is a restriction against harming others

We were never free to do that #covid19
Read 5 tweets
Abraar Karan Profile picture
28 Mar
-The reversal in #covid19 trends in Michigan & the Northeast seen below

~15% or so of the country is vaccinated
~30m confirmed cases from natural infection

-some overlap between those two groups (recovered who got vaxx)

-*many* still susceptible

npr.org/816707182 Image
2/ Seroprevalence studies also indicate that we are under-detecting cases based on discordance b/w rtPCR and antibody studies; these numbers have varied at different time points in the year- all the way up to 10x by some measures at some time points #covid19
3/ One of the big questions is to what extent we have underlying immunity from un-detected cases, & to what extent that contributed to rapid declines in case numbers in January/Feb. Even so, that wouldn't be the whole story; physical distancing & other control measures matter.
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @AbraarKaran has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @AbraarKaran!

Read all threads by @AbraarKaran