“While more than six million of the country’s 18 million people have been vaccinated, a surge in infections has left intensive-care units operating with few beds to spare and the system at a breaking point.” From Chile @nytimes #covid19
2/ “Dr. Francisca Crispi, a regional president of Chile’s medical association, said that 20 to 30 percent of medical professionals in the country had gone on leave because they are so exhausted.”
3/ “No one questions that the vaccination campaign is a success story,” she said. “But it conveyed a false sense of security to people, who felt that since we’re all being vaccinated the pandemic is over.”
4/ “More than four million people traveled around the country. That led the virus, which had been largely contained to some major areas, to spread across the country.”— Dr. Claudia Cortés, infectious disease specialist, University of Chile
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1/ Sharing new piece: we have learned a lot this year about the deficiencies of the ‘test,trace, isolate’ system, but it is still going to be needed to burn out the epidemic once case numbers are brought down further.
2/ While proposed plans to simply isolate the elderly are largely unachievable/ not how societies fundamentally function-- what many of us do agree on is that vaccinating the elderly as a priority group is critical; and we are doing it well.
3/ With real world data from @CDCMMWR today showing significant protection even 2 weeks after just the 1st dose of mRNA vaccines, I am optimistic that we should see a further notable reduction in mortality even w/ subsequent #covid19 surges
Under real-world conditions, vaccine effectiveness of mRNA (Moderna, Pfizer) vaccines:
-90% after 2 doses
-80% after one dose (both measured 14 days after dose) #covid19
2/ "Prospective cohorts of 3,950 health care personnel, first responders, and other essential and frontline workers completed weekly SARS-CoV-2 testing for 13 consecutive weeks."
Data collected from eight U.S. locations during December 14, 2020–March 13, 2021 #covid19
3/ "CDC routinely tested for SARS-CoV-2 infections every week regardless of symptom status and at the onset of symptoms consistent with COVID-19–associated illness."
Gets at one of the biggest questions since the vaccines came out: extent of reduction in asymptomatic cases
1/ The key bottleneck to scaling mRNA vaccines is a "worldwide shortage of essential components... nucleotides, enzymes, & lipids", according to this piece.
But...companies that can do this are not licensing their manufacturing so that others can join in nature.com/articles/d4158…
2/ So, once again, the issues we are facing are *man-made*
They are issues with how financial incentives overpower global health equity
There are ways that we could scale up more right now; but that won't happen because it threatens wealth
3/ These are complicated matters. But the system as it stands is not designed for health emergencies: it generates products (i.e. vaccines) for the few who can afford them; everyone else is subject to 'charity'
1/ As I reflect on the arguments people have put forward regarding individual rights...
Those opposed to masks likely would *not be opposed* (before #covid9) to a restriction of someone coughing/sneezing in your face if they were sick
Yet, we know the logic here is the same
2/ With asymptomatic spread, it doesn’t take coughing/sneezing; it just takes talking/breathing in a public space near others to infect them
So- the rules of the game haven’t changed here
Your right to do certain things is still limited by how they harm other people
3/ Yet their seems to be a perception/misperception that having people wear a mask in public spaces during a respiratory pandemic is somehow a restriction on freedoms
2/ Seroprevalence studies also indicate that we are under-detecting cases based on discordance b/w rtPCR and antibody studies; these numbers have varied at different time points in the year- all the way up to 10x by some measures at some time points #covid19
3/ One of the big questions is to what extent we have underlying immunity from un-detected cases, & to what extent that contributed to rapid declines in case numbers in January/Feb. Even so, that wouldn't be the whole story; physical distancing & other control measures matter.