1/ Prelim thoughts on market cycle

We are reaching the stage where valuations are beginning to lose sense.

New projects out the gate with untested proven models are frequently hitting billion dollar valuations.

Multiple 'froth' signals are also surfacing across the board
2/ Does this mean its the top? Not necessarily.

As the saying goes - Signs of froth are indistinguishable from signs of adoption.

However I find myself thinking that certain projects can drop 90% in valuation now and still be fairly valued.
3/ Generic consensus is that $BTC still has some ways to go before hitting a 'top', largely driven by increased institutional acceptance.

Therefore it wouldn't be wrong to rely on a rising tide lifting all boats.

But how long will this last?
4/ Over the next 2-3 years, most circulating supplies will converge to their FDVs. FDVs will no longer be a meme and the market will have to decide if projects are truly worth the number they're ignoring today.

I for one believe that bullish unlocks are the exception to the rule
5/ This is not meant to be fud and I'm in the camp that we are in the beginning of a supercycle.

But ask yourself - how many projects will actually execute and produce real value proportionate to what the market is valuing them at today?

For some, there will be hell to pay.

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More from @Wangarian1

3 Mar
0/ Teaching an old DEX new tricks ($BNT)

4 months ago, Bancor released their flagship single sided Impermanent Loss protection solution for LPs.

70x increase in TVL and 55x increase in volume later,
I present a deep dive on a forgotten DEX that may be the dark horse of 2021
👇
1/ Story so far

Bancor is a OG DEX launched in 2018 (to much fanfare) but suffered from an overcomplicated token model and lacked noticeable traction despite lofty promises.

venturebeat.com/2017/12/12/6-m…
2/ After 2 years of behind the scenes product iteration and a leadership reshuffle, the original Bancor vision is being realised. Consequently, the Bancorian community is stronger than ever led by @yudilevi @NateHindman @MBRichardson87.
Read 18 tweets
13 Jan
1/ Observations of a dHedge fund manager

Whilst it has its drawbacks, I find myself interacting with the dHedge platform frequently.

For the uninitiated, @dHedgeOrg is a non-custodial copy trading protocol built on top of the @synthetix_io ecosystem.

app.dhedge.org
2/ dHedge's value proposition is simple. It provides a platform for active fund managers to showcase their trading prowess, with a transparent scoreboard for all to see.

Managers can also interact with their investors via public and private posts
3/ Since Mainnet launch in late Oct 2020, dHedge's traction has been growing steadily with ~14m TVL today and over 200 active managers.

Cumulative trading vol on the platform stand at $87m, providing a nice boost to the underlying SNX system as well.
Read 8 tweets
15 Dec 20
1/ Thoughts on investing and missing winners:
A case study on $COVER.

You can't catch every winner. That said, there's always something to take away from the one that got away.
2/ Since the lows in late Nov, $COVER has ~6x its token price.

I knew about COVER since the SAFE farming days, but dumped my SAFE tokens shortly after Cover released its original tokenomics.

3/ At the time, the lack of thought and poor economic design of the $COVER token was the nail in the coffin for me.

I know many others shared my view. However, we all missed something.

We underestimated the team's ability to learn from their mistakes.
Read 6 tweets
15 Nov 20
1/ Some of you are wondering why $SUSHI has been pumping.

Sushiswap? Wasn't that the dead $UNI fork that got hacked by the founder 2 months ago?

Surprisingly, $SUSHI never left. Instead - it has silently been building in the background.

Let me break it down for you
👇
2/ $SUSHI's dark horse narrative comprises of 3 main elements:

1. Market proven product yielding stable cashflows
2. Product releases with strong USP factor
3. Near term catalyst

Together, they construct a powerful narrative for Sushiswap's recovery - and why its far from over
3/ Background
After the initial Sushi hype faded (when 10x rewards expired in mid Sep), TVL and Daily traded volume on Sushiswap collapsed.

Nobody thought a fork with no USP could last.

Throw in a $15m ETH scandal by the founder it looked like the end.

Read 13 tweets
11 Nov 20
1/ On 17th Nov, $UNI farming will end.

Right now ~$2.3bn funds are deployed farming UNI, with $ETH being the reference token.

This means that there is currently ~$1.1bn ETH locked up, about to be released into the wild.

Where do you think that ETH will go?
2/ Whilst a large portion of current TVL will stay in the same pools (fees generated are juicy), I posit a reasonable amount of ETH will leave the Uniswap system in search of higher yields.

Nobody knows numbers at this point but 50% of TVL leaving may be within reason.
3/ If this holds true, ~$500mm ETH will be on the market. They can:

A): Stake elsewhere ($SUSHI/$ALPHA/ETH 2.0 etc)
B): Remain in holder wallets (unlikely)
C): Be sold for stables / altcoins

I believe a large chunk of it will be sold. Why?
Read 7 tweets
31 Oct 20
1/

6 months ago, I didn't have the simplest idea of what a blockchain was.

This week, I've officially taken the plunge to work full time @DeFianceCapital.

Here are a few thoughts from a newcomer to the wild wild land of crypto.
👇👇👇👇👇
2/ Like so many of you here, my innocent curiosity of this new Internet money quickly evolved into a fully encapsulating mind consuming obsession.

I fell down the classic crypto rabbithole and for the first time in my life, discovered a fire ignite within me.
3/ Frontier tech + Liquid Small Cap Pseudo Equities = Potential for reasonably sized house(s?)

Reflecting on my experiences so far, there are several takeaways on intrinsic motivation, game selection and DeFi that may be of interest to you.
Read 11 tweets

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