Volkswagen to buy environmental credits from Tesla in China
The deal is the first of its kind to be reported between the two companies in China and highlights the scale of the task Volkswagen faces in transforming its huge ICEV business reuters.com/article/us-vol…
China is the world’s biggest auto market where over 25 million vehicles were sold last year, and it runs a credit system that encourages automakers to work towards a cleaner future by, for example, improving fuel efficiency or making more electric cars
Manufacturers are awarded green credits that can be offset against negative credits for producing more polluting vehicles
They can also buy green credits to ensure compliance with overall targets
This trade is usually between affiliated companies that share a major stakeholder
To help meet increasingly tough targets, Volkswagen’s joint venture with state-owned Chinese automaker FAW, or FAW-Volkswagen, has agreed to buy credits from Tesla, the sources said, declining to be named as the talks were private
Volkswagen declined to comment on the deal
VW said in a statement it was “strategically targeting to be self-compliant” with rules in China, but that if required it would buy credits
Tesla did not respond to requests for comment
FAW-Volkswagen sold 2.16 million cars last year
The business and another Volkswagen venture in China with SAIC Motor were among the most negative credit-generating automakers in the country in 2019, according to data from China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology
The ventures’ gasoline sedans and SUVs have so far proved far more popular in China than their electric vehicles
It is unclear how many green credits FAW-Volkswagen will buy from Tesla, but FAW-Volkswagen’s offer was around 3,000 yuan per credit, which is higher than the prices of previous years, the sources said
The deal effectively sees Volkswagen, the biggest foreign carmaker in China, subsidising a rival while the German group ramps up production of electric vehicles
Its ventures in China plan to roll out five electric ID series models this year
In the United States, where regulators also set environmental requirements, Tesla has sold regulatory credits to rivals such as Fiat Chrysler, now part of Stellantis, but it has not so far reported any deals in China, where it started making cars in late 2019
Tesla’s revenue from selling regulatory credits totalled $1.58 billion in 2020, according to a regulatory filing
Shares in Volkswagen, the world’s second-biggest automaker, have soared this year as investors warm to its plans to go electric
But in China, and elsewhere, the German company is still heavily reliant on traditional combustion-engine vehicles
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Once we have a clear understanding of our Valuation Methodology, it is useful to make a couple of important observations
1. We have never seen a case before like Tesla where the broad direction of the future can be predicted with such confidence
It is quite remarkable and it is a consequence of three things
- one is that it comes from a fundamental disruption of a very large and important industry sector and consumer sector, the sort of thing that happens only once in a lifetime or once in 100 years for that sector
- the second is that this company is being led by a remarkable set of human talents and appears to be accumulating and building even more talent internally
1. Let us start with the principle that a stock will ultimately be valued based on its earnings, regardless of how it is priced today
So Future Value = Future Net Income x Future P/E Multiple / Future Number of Shares
It is that simple
2. For a stock to deliver you a 15% return based on its fundamentals, it has to grow its earnings at 15% or more over the investment period
- once its earnings growth slows below 15% per year its discounted present value will naturally decline
3. Normally its Net Income growth must be driven by its Revenue growth
- so this means that you must look for stocks whose Revenues are growing more than +15% per year and which are expected to continue to do so for as many years as possible
A PRIMER ON UNDERSTANDING CAPACITY IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR
When a company builds a manufacturing facility there are a lot of considerations that go into determining its capacity, and even more considerations that go into determining its output
Let us take a look at the case of Tesla
This is the most recent communication from the company on their Installed Annual Capacity
But what does it mean ?
To understand that it is helpful to lay out a more detailed Capacity Map
First, there are currently four relevant locations