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Lakshya Jain Profile picture
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2 Apr, 4 tweets, 2 min read
As I touched on in my @Center4Politics piece, the Democratic Party collapsed in Florida this year, performing a whopping 3.8% (!) below expectation. The serious underperformances in Tampa and Miami/Broward/Palm Beach more than negated any gains elsewhere.
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
There are deeply-rooted issues in Florida that go far beyond canvassing and will take years to fix. Democratic collapse with subgroups means that to win Florida 2022, you need “stellar”. This is a state in which a lot of trends are currently going against Democrats.
Unless she can reverse the decline against Cubans/West Indians or peel off a lot more college whites, I don’t see how the math works for Nikki Fried in 2022. She *could* be that stellar superstar candidate, but I have yet to see anything indicating it.
I haven't done this without talking to several people actually involved in Florida politics too. The math just doesn't work out right now. IMO "Likely R, close to safe" is fair. Fried has an outside shot. She'd need to convince the electorate she's far more than generic D to win.

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More from @lxeagle17

Lakshya Jain Profile picture
29 Mar
Darren Beattie is a speechwriter fired by Trump for attending a white nationalist gathering. He then got appointed by Trump to the commission preserving Holocaust-related sites in 2018.

He currently works for the Biden administration in the same capacity (appt carried over).
Suffice to say that anyone working for the Biden administration who is like this on social media (attacking young female reporters, promoting Nord Stream 2, etc) and who has a history of attending white nationalist gatherings should not be working for them for long.
This may not be something I’d necessarily expect the admin to catch right away given just how many people like these are now in the ranks from the previous administrations, but they really should not be there for too long.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
27 Mar
Even if you think Manchin won't help pass any variant of HR-1, there is absolutely no universe in which giving Republicans control of the Senate to show voters that "they're responsible for nothing getting done" is preferable to Democrats electorally than keeping the majority.
With a GOP Senate, you likely drag out nominations and confirmations far beyond what's acceptable, cannot extend the extremely useful programs in the ARP, cannot pass nearly as good of a budget bill...I mean, the list goes on. Nothing gets done.
Also, "two members of our own party defected to the GOP because we took a stance, so give us the majority back to pass bills" is an argument *easily* countered by "Can you imagine how bad they are? They can't even keep their own majority intact, how do they govern for America?"
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
24 Mar
It's interesting to see Biden underperforming by almost 2% in Wisconsin, relative to underlying factors and the national environment. He should have won it by close to the amount he won Michigan by, but he didn't actually improve by as much as expected in the WOW counties
Interestingly, it's not as if Biden massively overperformed in the Wisconsin rurals, despite seeing almost no change from 2016 margins; the demographics of that area make it more friendly than not to Democrats (comparatively speaking).
What I wonder about is if WOW sees another massive snap left at some point soon. The GOP there is much stronger and much more energized than they are in many other suburban strongholds, but the evidence we see suggests that the red firewall is still beginning to crack, if slowly.
Read 5 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
22 Mar
We keep saying Democrats have a "lot of room to fall in the rurals", but I'm actually not sure the floor is as low as people think.

There's a pretty consistent Biden overperformance in Appalachia (2.6% in Kentucky, 2.4% in West Virginia), and it's worth examining in more detail. Image
It's interesting because as @JMilesColeman has noted, there's a lot of evidence that Biden managed to stem the bleeding there in this election. In fact, western NC swung *left* from 2016.

Is it something I expect to hold? I don't know, but I'm actually not dismissing it now.
Essentially, we're all saying that "Democrats have more room to fall in ____", but...there's a pretty consistent overperformance across that stretch of Appalachia by Biden in 2020, and it may hint that Democrats are hitting their floors there earlier (and higher) than we'd expect
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
21 Mar
A roughly 3% underperformance in Durham, 1% underperformance in Wake/Mecklenberg, and an absolutely *awful* performance in Eastern NC.

But even w/ that, Biden only underperformed by about 0.75% in NC, partially because of his strength in the West...so now what?
I'll let @stewroel's *excellent* thread speak more about this, but Democrats have got to start overperforming in North Carolina metros and suburbs like they did in Georgia. If NC Dems overperformed like GA Dems did (GA: +1.90), Democrats would have won NC.
The problem is that the NC metros have proven stubbornly resistant to change on the scale that the Georgia metros have exhibited. It could break soon, of course; different areas swing at different rates, but it'll require a fair bit of smart investment in the state
Read 7 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
20 Mar
If us Indian Americans are trying to "assimilate and get ahead", we're probably not doing a very good job of it considering that people in my Bay Area neighborhood literally harassed and yelled at us to "keep a low profile" when we moved in here a decade ago.
Trust me, I would like nothing more than to be viewed as just an American by everyone else, but I'm under no pretenses about that when someone in 5th grade got up when I sat down and say "aw hell nah, I ain't sitting next to an Indian!"
I am very, very fortunate to be in the Bay Area, where shit like this happens very rarely, but I don't think I could ever make it in a lot of red states. And to be clear, I'm not equating the (rather rare) instances of racism that we face to the struggles of other communities.
Read 4 tweets

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