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Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

27 Mar

Even if you think Manchin won't help pass any variant of HR-1, there is absolutely no universe in which giving Republicans control of the Senate to show voters that "they're responsible for nothing getting done" is preferable to Democrats electorally than keeping the majority.

With a GOP Senate, you likely drag out nominations and confirmations far beyond what's acceptable, cannot extend the extremely useful programs in the ARP, cannot pass nearly as good of a budget bill...I mean, the list goes on. Nothing gets done.

Also, "two members of our own party defected to the GOP because we took a stance, so give us the majority back to pass bills" is an argument *easily* countered by "Can you imagine how bad they are? They can't even keep their own majority intact, how do they govern for America?"

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Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

24 Mar

It's interesting to see Biden underperforming by almost 2% in Wisconsin, relative to underlying factors and the national environment. He should have won it by close to the amount he won Michigan by, but he didn't actually improve by as much as expected in the WOW counties

Interestingly, it's not as if Biden massively overperformed in the Wisconsin rurals, despite seeing almost no change from 2016 margins; the demographics of that area make it more friendly than not to Democrats (comparatively speaking).

What I wonder about is if WOW sees another massive snap left at some point soon. The GOP there is much stronger and much more energized than they are in many other suburban strongholds, but the evidence we see suggests that the red firewall is still beginning to crack, if slowly.

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Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

22 Mar

We keep saying Democrats have a "lot of room to fall in the rurals", but I'm actually not sure the floor is as low as people think.

There's a pretty consistent Biden overperformance in Appalachia (2.6% in Kentucky, 2.4% in West Virginia), and it's worth examining in more detail.

@JMilesColeman

It's interesting because as @JMilesColeman has noted, there's a lot of evidence that Biden managed to stem the bleeding there in this election. In fact, western NC swung *left* from 2016.

Is it something I expect to hold? I don't know, but I'm actually not dismissing it now.

Essentially, we're all saying that "Democrats have more room to fall in ____", but...there's a pretty consistent overperformance across that stretch of Appalachia by Biden in 2020, and it may hint that Democrats are hitting their floors there earlier (and higher) than we'd expect

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Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

21 Mar

A roughly 3% underperformance in Durham, 1% underperformance in Wake/Mecklenberg, and an absolutely *awful* performance in Eastern NC.

But even w/ that, Biden only underperformed by about 0.75% in NC, partially because of his strength in the West...so now what?

@stewroel

I'll let @stewroel's *excellent* thread speak more about this, but Democrats have got to start overperforming in North Carolina metros and suburbs like they did in Georgia. If NC Dems overperformed like GA Dems did (GA: +1.90), Democrats would have won NC.

https://twitter.com/stewroel/status/1373454836759289856?s=20

The problem is that the NC metros have proven stubbornly resistant to change on the scale that the Georgia metros have exhibited. It could break soon, of course; different areas swing at different rates, but it'll require a fair bit of smart investment in the state

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Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

20 Mar

https://twitter.com/hknightsf/status/1372995670295027715

If us Indian Americans are trying to "assimilate and get ahead", we're probably not doing a very good job of it considering that people in my Bay Area neighborhood literally harassed and yelled at us to "keep a low profile" when we moved in here a decade ago.

https://twitter.com/hknightsf/status/1372995670295027715

Trust me, I would like nothing more than to be viewed as just an American by everyone else, but I'm under no pretenses about that when someone in 5th grade got up when I sat down and say "aw hell nah, I ain't sitting next to an Indian!"

I am very, very fortunate to be in the Bay Area, where shit like this happens very rarely, but I don't think I could ever make it in a lot of red states. And to be clear, I'm not equating the (rather rare) instances of racism that we face to the struggles of other communities.

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Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

18 Mar

It is a bad idea to seat Rita Hart in #IA02 if there is no clear and convincing evidence supporting the unseating of Miller-Meeks. But comparisons to 1985 don't work; firstly, it won't be something to unite the GOP, and secondly, swing voters won't be basing their vote off this.

The entire GOP has spent months yelling about election fraud etc, so the argument that the Democrats are the ones doing it doesn't hold water with most people. Because many have no idea what the hell #IA02 is, and even fewer care. But they all saw January 6th.

So essentially, I'm not convinced that this is something that will "kill the Democrats with swing voters", making the optics *electorally* untenable -- the larger problem is in the precedents it sets and the ethical issues arising if this is done unfairly...

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