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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
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3 Apr, 13 tweets, 6 min read
I cry for the people of Brazil 🇧🇷

#P1 is serious. The world better wake up.

(HT @MaxCRoser & @OurWorldInData) #COVID19
2) I tried my hardest to warn two weeks ago.

9 million people worldwide heard it.

Brazilian people heard it.

Biden WH heard it.

Brazil govt tried to ignore. But I’m told they’ve heard it.
3) now the more contagious #P1 is spilling all over the world.
4) can it get worse? Yes. It could be like Mexico, which new numbers now even exceed Brazil’s official #COVID19 death count.
5) cases, hospitalizations, and deaths also surging in neighboring Paraguay and Uruguay. And I’m worried for Canada too with its #P1 and low vaccination rate.
6) Brazil 🇧🇷 and any other #P1 country needs to act fast to get ahead of it. There is some evidence it is more severe than before, in addition to 2-2.5x more contagious and poses Reinfection risk.
7) Notably there is data in one part of Brazil that didn’t have P1 in January to surging mortality in March with P1– the CFR seems to be unusually and suddenly shifting. And this was analyzed before the worst part of the Covid mortality curve.
8) is #P1 more contagious? Heck yeah.
9) does #P1 have reinfection risk? Yes maybe. This is from UK’s premier MRC Imperial epidemiology group.
10) Vaccines work? Yes. But #P1 has 4-6 fold weaker antibody neutralization via vaccinated serum studies (not efficacy) compared to old common strain.
11) Even with vaccines we cannot rush to immediately reopen too fast. Chile 🇨🇱 made that mistake despite recently becoming the 3rd highest per capita vaccinated country. We have to wait. And still mask.
12) younger mortality— Brazil versus England & Wales per capita deaths by age. See any trend?
13) need to goto sleep... but I’ve been talking to people in DC. There is hope something can be done to help the people of Brazil hopefully soon. Stay tuned and stay safe my friends. 😴

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
4 Apr
“Boomers Are Vaccinated and Down to party” is a headline that gives me slight nervousness. The CDC didn’t say visiting all bars/taverns is okay, but people are now doing that—is everyone in a bar or tavern vaccinated & masking & distanced? Doubtful. 🧵

Pray no outbreak. #COVID19 Image
2) To be clear, the latest CDC guidelines say fully vaccinated people can be indoors without masks with someone unvaccinated only in a **SINGLE HOUSEHOLD** in which everyone else is low risk. Thus not house parties or bars/taverns!!! cdc.gov/coronavirus/20… Image
3) the other concern is not just whether if the vaccinated get sick (low likelihood), but rather if they carry the virus asymptomatically and transmit it to someone unvaccinated. For the evidence for this... see this thread 🧵

Let’s be safe not sorry.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
4 Apr
Sobering words: “It is increasingly clear that the next few months will be painful... variants are spreading, carrying mutations that make #COVID19 both more contagious & in some cases more deadly.”

Great honest writing by @apoorva_nyc. Stay safe friends.
nytimes.com/2021/04/03/hea… Image
2) “Even as vaccines were authorized late last year, illuminating a path to the pandemic’s end, variants were trouncing Britain, South Africa and Brazil. New variants have continued to pop up — in California one week, in New York and Oregon the next.”
3) “As they take root, these new versions of the coronavirus threaten to postpone an end to the pandemic.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
4 Apr
Why did Canadians respond so passionately to one @Canucks hockey outbreak, but ignored the #COVID19 & #P1 wildfire🔥 that we epidemiologists warned was already burning out of control?

Yes, hockey is big in Canada🇨🇦— but people also can’t empathize with big numbers & statistics.
2) we have known this problem for a long time of course. People relate to stories of people, especially who they know, like the household names of like NHL hockey players. But numbers are just numbers. Numbers & data are cold and unemotional. And that doesn’t get people to act.
3) But what does get people to act? Stories of individual / small scale groups suffering or experiencing a phenomenon. And that’s why stories like the Canucks hockey outbreak is so much resonating than more numbers of people dying or even photos of coffins. It’s sad but true.
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
4 Apr
Let this sink in—wealthy sports franchise, NHL @Canucks:

—Had >50% of its team #COVID19 sickened

—Many decimated “very ill”

—Despite strict workplace protocols

—Despite big PPE budget

—Despite daily testing

➡️The #P1 variant is just that badass.🧵
theathletic.com/2496170/2021/0… Image
2) The @NHL Vancouver @Canucks is looking out of service for a while until they get this #P1 under control. But they may have to revamp everything.

See detailed thread 🧵 below ⬇️
3) And no, most Canadian players are not vaccinated yet due to shortage in Canada 🇨🇦

Here is the NHL letter to all teams today because of the outbreak.
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
4 Apr
⚠️WARNING LETTER from @NHL to all 🏒 teams:

📌Many instance of non-compliance with #COVID19 safety protocols. Warns:

📌Masks even if vaccinated (most 🇨🇦 players are not).

📌Don’t goto restaurants.

📌Discourage card playing even if masked.

📌Coaches not to pull down masks.🧵
2) This @NHL warning is in direct response to the worrisome outbreak of #COVID19 involving the #P1 variant in 16 players and 3 coaches on the Vancouver @Canucks—more than half the entire team!

Detailed thread 🧵 of the #P1 crisis in Canada 🇨🇦 below...
3) Vaccines likely work for #p1 but may not be as high.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
3 Apr
BREAKING—Top US state with most number of the aggressive #P1 variant from 🇧🇷 is now Massachusetts— with 54.

@MassGovernor needs to act fast! #P1 is very aggressive and contagious. British Columbia 🇨🇦 now hit very hard, Brazil even harder. #COVID19
bostonglobe.com/2021/04/03/met…
2) the Brazil-origin 🇧🇷 variant #P1 is extremely aggressive. It is 2-2.5x faster transmission, studies show, has some potential reinfection risk, and some early evidence it’s maybe more severe. #P1 is a major problem. ?
3) This is just how aggressive #P1 is in BC 🇨🇦 — sickened a team of young professional hockey players very fast. ?
Read 4 tweets

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